Energy companies are braced for the collapse of the #Romanian electricity and gas markets and a supply blackout after the government introduced a series of punishing taxes./1
As of 1 September, electricity and gas traders will have to pay a 98% tax on net revenues. The tax is in place for a year and will have to be paid both by resident and non-resident companies./2
For producers, the government has set a reference price of RON450.00/MWh (€93.00/MWh). If producers have a profit above that level, it will be taxed 100%./3
For suppliers, the government has also set a limit of New Lei 1,300/MWh, which means if their costs to purchase electricity has been higher they will be reimbursed only New Lei 1,300/MWh. The tax applies to suppliers of last resort./4
Speculative trading is punished by 5% tax on turnover. This means that electricity and gas can only be traded for physical delivery. /5
Non-resident companies will have to submit proof of bank guarantees/cash collateral amounting to the equivalent in New Lei of €1m. /6
Several companies interviewed by ICIS said the measures will prompt banks to pull the plug on financing energy companies, triggering a chain of bankruptcies, court cases against the government and possibly EU infringement proceedings. /ENDS
I had the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Timm Kehler, chairman of Germany's Zukunft Gas, the industry's lobby group.
A few takeaways from this very important discussion:
1. #Germany may be days away from reaching a gas price level where trading may not be sustainable anymore, prompting the government to raise the alert level to emergency, which, in turn, would lead to gas rationing.
2. Gas rationing may happen in the next six-eight weeks but the government and regulator are yet to publish a merit order that will clearly identify who will be the first in line to get the curtailment order.
I never cease to wonder how some European think-tankers are always more inclined to write Turkey off as an energy partner than to make an effort to find joint interests, particularly now when ever single opportunity that shifts markets away from Russian gas is important/1
The author insists that although Turkey is in close vicinity to large fossil fuel producers – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Kurdish Region of Iraq, East Med – there is no prospect for large supplies to reach European markets via Turkey/3
#Bulgaria and #Poland confirmed the suspension of #Russian gas supplies from 27.04.2022 after the countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles.
Here is the immediate and slightly longer-term supply outlook for both as well as the region. /1
Poland:
Russian Yamal contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.
The 10bcm/year Baltic Pipeline supplying NO gas to PL to be commissioned 1 Oct 2022.
Swinoujscie terminal cap to rise from 5bcm/y (2022) ->8.3bcm in 2024.
2 LNG cargoes to arrive 28/30.04 /2
Bulgaria:
Russian LTC contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.
Interconnector GR-BG (IGB) to be commissioned second half of 2022.
Immediate likely supplies from AGSC 1bcm/year deal, Chiren UGS, Greece LNG and RO-BG link.
Before wrapping up for the weekend, a small tribute to Patrick Leigh Fermor, perhaps the greatest travel writer of all times, who would have had his birthday today. (1)
All his books are superb, his knowledge of history and elegant use of the English language are simply breathtaking but I never cease to be bewitched by his description of Ada Kaleh, a a fairy tale-like island in the middle of the Danube (2).
Ada Kaleh had been inhabited by the descendants of Sultan Bayazid I’s soldiers, lingering on as a forgotten corner of the Ottoman world until 1970s when it was submerged by Romania’s communist regime to build a large hydro dam. Another magic place destroyed by communism. (3)
#Turkish gas demand has been falling from Jan's 287mcm/d record but is still controlled by a curtailment order to gas plants. It appears #BOTAS is off-taking around 5mcm/day of spot Azeri gas on top of usual Azeri DCQ of ~17mcm/d (TANAP) and (I think) 7mcm/d (Turkgozu).(1)
#Turkish branch of #SOCAR may also be off-taking 4mcm/day (according to EPDK capacity bookings for Feb). #Russian off-takes at TS1 around 42mcm/d (this includes BOTAS/some independents). (2)
#BOTAS your willingness to publish gas storage data would be greatly appreciated by the market and yours truly. Thank you in advance (3)