Ted Darling Profile picture
Sep 5, 2022 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 5 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review
September 5, 2022

Hello Labor Day ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ!
Other than the $USD, very little that was in the green long side last week. This morning, commodities are bouncing but equities โ†˜๏ธ

Letโ€™s review the week and the real-time ๐Ÿงฎ!

๐Ÿงต
Asia ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ last week with $HSI -3.55%, $NIKK -3.45%, and $KOSPI -2.9%.

Today โ†”๏ธ
$NIKK 27620 -0.1%
$SSEC 3200 +0.4%
$TWII 14661 -0.1%
$HSI 2404 -0.25%
$IDX 7232 +0.75%

$ASX 6852 +0.35%

$BSE 59209 +0.7%

Chart: $NIKK flipped to neutral Trend (T) -0.4% over the past 3 months
Unambiguously ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ โ†˜๏ธ this morning, Europe was โ†”๏ธ last week with $DAX + 0.44% and $CAC -1.7%

$DAX 12640 -3.15%
$FTSE 7200 -1.1%
$CAC 6031 -2.2%
$AEX 666 -1.9%
$IDEX 7778 -1.95%
$MIB 21327 -2.7%
$SMI 10704 -1.7%
$MOEX 2457 -0.6%

$VSTOXX 28.96 ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $DAX bye higher low ๐Ÿ’ฃ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ equities ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ last week with $SPX -3.3% and $COMPQ -4.2%

Futures โ†”๏ธ
$ES 3926 +0.05%
$NQ 12078 -0.15%
$RTY 1804 -0.3%

$VIX 26.74 ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $IWM -4.7% small caps and now -19.05% YTD
Metals ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ”จ'd last week with $GOLD -1.5% and $COPPER -7.85% ๐Ÿฉธ

Today ๐Ÿ€
$GOLD 1724 +0.1%
$SILVER 18.04 +0.9%
$COPPER 3.437 +0.7%
$PLAT 824 +0.7%
$PALL 2032 +0.3%
$ALI 2304 +0.2%
$ZINC 3177 +1.65%

Chart: Dr. $COPPER is ๐Ÿค’ -23.7% (T) and -23.55% YTD
Hydrocarbons ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธโ†˜๏ธ last week with $WTIC -6.65%, $GASO -8.2%, and $NATGAS -5.3%

Today ๐Ÿ€โ†—๏ธ
$WTIC 89.16 +2.65%
$BRENT 95.66 +2.85%
$GASO 2.49 +1.25%
$NATGAS 8.892 +1.15%

$OVX 53.90

Chart: $GASO โ›ฝ๏ธ is -42% over the past 3 months, compliments of Uncle Joe and #SPR release
While ๐Ÿป Trend (T), grains hung in there last week

$WHEAT 811 +0.7% (w), -22.0% (T)
$CORN 666 +0.25% (w), -8.45% (T)
$SUGAR 18.2 -1.6% (w), -5.7% (T)
$SOYB -2.8% (w), -16.35% (T)

Chart: $COFFEE โ˜•๏ธ -3.9% (w), -1.3% (T)
With ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ removal underway, the $USD ๐Ÿ’ชโ†—๏ธ +0.7% and trading โ†—๏ธ this morning

$EUR 0.991 -0.4%
$GBP 1.1487 -0.18%
$AUD 0.678 -0.44%
$USD 110.00 +0.45%
$USDJPY 140.49 +0.2%
$USDCHF 0.9833 +0.3%
$USDCAD 1.316 +0.25%
$USDCNH 6.953 +0.5% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

Chart: ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง ๐Ÿ’ท -1.95% (w) -14.9% YTD ๐Ÿ’ฃ๐Ÿ’ฅ
#Bitcoin traded -1.4% and #cryptocurrencies are trading โ†˜๏ธ this morning

$BTC 19779 -1.1%
$ETH 1565 -0.85%

Chart: #Bitcoin is clinging to 20,000 but has downside to 18,400 - today!
UST yields โ†—๏ธ across the curve
10/2s to -20.1 BPS ๐Ÿป #steepening

MOVE 120.72 ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿ›—

Chart: $TLT -3.0% (w), -5.0% (T), -25.6% YTD
While economic signals may not be 100% clear, market signals are unambiguous - #Quad4 #deflation is in full swing ๐Ÿช“๐Ÿฉธ๐Ÿ’ฃ๐Ÿ’ฅ

Stay long the weapons of choice - the $USD ๐Ÿ’ต and $WTIC ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธas a hedge.

Cash ๐Ÿ’ธ is a position

โš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ and have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ week!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
ใ€€

Keep Current with Ted Darling

Ted Darling Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tdarling1

Aug 2
Hello Friday! ๐Ÿฅท

I don't know if it's the unwind of the Yen ๐Ÿ’น carry trade, the change in vol ๐ŸŒŠ regime , or a Fed that's too #tight in the face of weak economic date, but risk assets are getting pummeled ๐Ÿ—ก๏ธ๐Ÿฉธ

I doubt $NFP will save us

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia ๐Ÿ—ก๏ธ๐Ÿฉธ

$NIKK 35912 -5.75% โฌ…๏ธ ๐Ÿ™€
$SSEC 2905 -0.9%
$HSI 16946 -2.1%
$KOSPI 2676 -3.65% โฌ…๏ธ ๐Ÿ˜ฎ
$IDX 7311 -0.2%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7943 -2.1%

Bharat โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 81182 -0.85%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ

$VSTOXX 20.92 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 17862 - 18711 โ™‰๏ธ to โ†”๏ธ ๐Ÿ†•
$FEZ range = 48.65 - 50.71 โ†”๏ธ to ๐Ÿป ๐Ÿ†•

$DAX 17898 -1.05%
$FTSE 8264 -0.25%
$CAC 7342 -0.4%
$AEX 893 -1.6%
$IBEX 10818 -0.35%
$MIB 32427 -1.3%
$SMI 12013 -2.45% โฌ…๏ธ ๐Ÿ˜ฌ
$MOEX 2918 -0.6%
Read 13 tweets
May 23
Hello Thursday!

With FOMC ๐Ÿฆ minutes ๐Ÿ““ (nothing ๐Ÿ” that gave you a #BTFD moment) and $NVDA ๐Ÿš€ out of the way, the $VIX (along with metals and the $USD) is collapsing

This is unequivocally โ™‰๏ธ equities

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asian #dispersion โฌ†๏ธ โฌ‡๏ธ

$NIKK 39112 +1.3% โฌ†๏ธ
$SSEC 3116 -1.35% โฌ‡๏ธ
$TWSE 21552 unch
$HSI 18869 -1.7% โฌ‡๏ธ
$KOSPI 2722 -0.05%
$IDX 7221 +0.5% โฌ†๏ธ

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7812 -0.45%

Bharat โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 74955 +1.0%
Europe trying to bounce โ†”๏ธ

$VSTOXX 12.37 ๐Ÿ”ป

$DAX range = 18436 - 19085 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 52.32 - 54.53 โ™‰๏ธ

$DAX 18695 +0.05%
$FTSE 8348 -0.25%
$CAC 8102 +0.1%
$AEX 915 +0.5%
$IBEX 11314 -0.15%
$MIB 34411 -0.15%
$SMI 11979 +0.25%
$MOEX 3417 -0.8%
Read 11 tweets
May 5
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Something strange happened in #macro markets this week ๐Ÿงต 1/7

Inflation data pushed ย ๐Ÿ”บ and the #TRA pointed to coupon issuance ๐Ÿ”บ, yet inflation assets sold off ๐Ÿ”ป and bonds caught a bid ๐Ÿ”บ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/7

Data and policy palooza this past week supported a phase transition to #stagflation
3/7

First the #inflation data

#ECI +1.1% ๐Ÿ”บ
CS Home Price +7.3% y/y ๐Ÿ”บ
#ISM Manufacturing Prices 60.9 ๐Ÿ”บ
Unit Labor Costs +4.7% ๐Ÿ”บ
#ISM Services Prices 59.2 ๐Ÿ”บ
#AHE Y/Y +3.9% ๐Ÿ”ปย โฌ…๏ธ

Together with April #CPI ๐Ÿ”บ and #PCE ๐Ÿ”บ, inflation acceleration is trending ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 7 tweets
Mar 7
Hello Thursday!

"BOJ Board Member Nakagawa Says Japan Moving Steadily Toward Achieving Price Goal" and the $USDJPY rolls againโ€ฆ

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!

wsj.com/articles/boj-bโ€ฆ
Image
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ with $NIKK โ†˜๏ธ ๐Ÿฅท

$NIKK 39598 -1.3%
$SSEC 3027 -0.4%
$TWSE 19694 +1.0% โฌ…๏ธ
$HSI 16239 -1.25%
$KOSPI 2648 +0.25%
$IDX 7369 +0.55%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7764 +0.4%

Bharat โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 74073 unch
Europe trading โ†”๏ธ

$DAX 17671 -0.3%
$FTSE 7657 -0.3%
$CAC 7941 -0.2%
$AEX 859 +0.2%
$IBEX 10254 +0.55%
$MIB 33333 -0.1%
$SMI 11497 -0.45%
$MOEX 3306 -0.15%

$VSTOXX 14.27

$DAX range = 17306 - 17919 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 49.79 - 51.89 โ™‰๏ธ
Read 11 tweets
Feb 19
Hello Presidents Day!

The ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ is closed for the holiday but ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ is back after making ๐Ÿฅณ with the ๐Ÿ‰ for the past week

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
In Asia, the $NIKK finding overhead near ATHs after a โ™‰๏ธ breakout run to 38500

$NIKK 38470 -0.1%
$SSEC 2911 +1.55% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWSE 18636 +0.15%
$HSI 16156 -1.15%
$KOSPI 2680 +1.2%
$IDX 7297 -0.55%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 7665 +0.1%

Bharat โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 72718 +0.4% Image
Europe โ†”๏ธ stalling at ATHs

$DAX 17065 -0.3%
$FTSE 7717 +0.05%
$CAC 7739 -0.4%
$AEX 855 -0.3%
$IBEX 9927 +0.4%
$MIB 31635 -0.3%
$SMI 11327 +0.15%
$MOEX 3247 +0.13%

$VSTOXX 14.62 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 16922 - 17258 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 48.13 - 49.50 โ™‰๏ธ Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 23, 2023
Hello Monday!

The ๐Ÿป markets in bonds, equities, and non-USD currencies continues unabated, even though equities are very oversold on a weekly basis.

This new ๐ŸชŸ of weakness is not helping the โ™‰๏ธs ๐Ÿฅ

But #Bitcoin ๐Ÿš€

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
In Asia, $SSEC ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ“‰ from oversold levels

$NIKK 31,000 -0.8%
$SSEC 2939 -1.45% โฌ…๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWII 16441 -0.05%
$HSI 17142 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2357 -0.75%
$IDX 6770 -1.1%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6844 -0.8%

Bharat โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 65058 -0.5%
Europe trading โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 14745 -0.35%
$FTSE 7369 -0.45%
$CAC 6811 -0.1%
$AEX 715 -0.25%
$IBEX 870 -0.65%
$MIB 27370 +0.05% โฌ…๏ธ
$SMI 10296 -0.5%
$MOEX 3273 +0.1%

$VSTOXX 23.87 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 14615 - 15219 ๐Ÿป
$FEZ range = 40.05 - 42.64 ๐Ÿป
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(