Thread by @Awinish_M

There's a lot of buzz around the Merge and the #ETHPoW airdrop. But did you've ever gave these things a second thought:
- The exchange where you'll your $ETHW
- Liquidity
- Buyers
- Whoever else is going to sell
- (Of course the operational risks as well!)

👇🏽🧵

/1 @bobbyong posted a good thread about how to take advantage of the Merge. But I think that, after doing some guesstimates, it won’t be that attractive to chase the airdrop itself. However if you got some longterm $ETH, it can be beneficial.

https://twitter.com/bobbyong/status/1566616585015422976?s=20&t=QU2zQD4ilajN5jGILu5znQ

/2 According to Coingecko these exchanges currently support the Proof-of-Work fork and is dubbed $ETHW
@MEXC_Global
@gate_io
@Phemex_official
@bitfinex
@Poloniex
@HuobiGlobal announced that they potentially will list $ETHW if turns out to be safe.

theblock.co/post/161913/hu…

/3 The current tradeable token is an IOU token meaning that is allows users to trade tokens of a blockchain which isn't live yet. Once the fork will have taken place users will be able to redeem their IOU token for the underlying asset (specific process depends on exchange).

/4 All the aforementioned exchanges (excluding @HuobiGlobal) have a combined total of $1.5M in trading volume in over the past 24 hours. In the run up to the #Merge I expect this to be on the rise as well but nothing extraordinary.

/5 Let's make an guesstimate of the total amount of $ETHW that will be circulating, there's a total of 120.4M $ETH which equals the same amount in $ETHW of course. In the guesstimate some entities will be excluded:
- Beacon chain
- A margin of very big holders

/6 According to Glassnode, there’s a total of 13.5M $ETH staked within the beacon chain and since the holders currently don’t have access I assume that this won’t be dumped on the market as well. 120.4M - 13.5M USD leaves us with a total of 106.9M $ETH.

/7 Currently 1183 addresses with 10K+ $ETH. I don’t think that most of them have the mandate to directly sell the $ETHW they’ll receive. To make a conservative estimate I’ll assume every address in here has 20K $ETH with a total of 23.6M $ETH and deduct this from the 106.9M $ETH.

/8 This leaves us with 83.3M $ETH, I assume that in this case 99.5% (82.883.500) of this $ETHW won’t be available to be sold immediately (no idea of the Merge, not possible atm, no experience etc.) and leaves us with the possibility of 416.5K of $ETHW to be sold.

/9 The current price is $42 with 1.5M in trading volume per 24 hours. Even a fraction of the 416.5K $ETH would literally nuke $ETHW and therefore make your airdrop effectively worthless. Let’s take just 10% of the 416.5K which effectively is 41.65K $ETH.

/10 Imo 41.65K $ETHW is a realistic assumption to be market sold pretty quick after the Merge. Looking at current OB depth on @MEXC_Global, $ETHW will nuke after the first few sells into the $40 range. Thereafter there is a gap with just slight buy pressure in the $20-30 range.

/11 Imo MEV guys will be first followed by whales, I don’t think that the average normie should be chasing this airdrop. By the time those guys dumped, the $3 will be hit and to go through the potential risks for like what $30-$300 … ? (Assuming you’ve got at least 10 $ETH... )

/12 Also, I don’t understand why someone would buy the $ETHW tokens (unless someone is bullish on the PoW but that doesn’t make sense imo).

/13 I couldn’t say this better than @ASvanevik

https://twitter.com/ASvanevik/status/1566628522134609920?s=20&t=QU2zQD4ilajN5jGILu5znQ

/14 If you’ve got no clue what to do, it might be good to follow @rleshner’s advice:

https://twitter.com/rleshner/status/1559727116081569792?s=20&t=QU2zQD4ilajN5jGILu5znQ

/15 This thread isn't investment advice or whatsoever. I’ve put up this thread to create awareness that the idea of ‘free money’ sounds cool but actually isn’t that impressive if you just run some guesstimate numbers (I’ve tried to be as conservative as possible).

/16
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/17 I’d really love it if you could help me by retweeting the first tweet so we’ll reach more people!

https://twitter.com/Awinish_M/status/1567221690408501272?s=20&t=N4xZrJBB8ntUpm9I0am9mQ