1/
The situation is an absolut smoking pile of shit.
From a military point of view it is manageable. Why?
#Russia pulls back and doesn't allow #Ukraine to destroy its valuable formations. The other way around Ukraine is losing manpower and equipment as never before.
Look at my
2/
quoted thread. Yes, #Ukraine achieved a big victory, but it is pyrrhic. Ukraine will have nothing left, after this massacre (full frontal assault without air cover).
Look my threads.
#Kharkov was a pinning operation and therefore a weak spot. #NATO exploited it by maximum
3/
impact.
Congratulations.
#Russia rightly retreated to safe its troops. She will come back. So nothing is lost. But it is a setback. A big setback because of #Izyum, which is the key to #Slavyansk.
From a human perspective it is even more disastrous. All the civilians left
4/
behind....

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More from @YugoSurfer

Sep 12
1/
With this thread I want to address two issues.
a) How #Russia intends to defeat #NATO in #Europe non-militarily.
b) How destroying #Ukraine's power generation capabilities could contribute to this goal.
First some basics.
Russia proposed, At the end of 2021, to NATO and #US
2/
a new security architecture/framework for #Europe. To simplify it, we can say basically, #NATO needs to pull back all its military infrastructure behind its borders off the year 1996. Otherwise #Russia would implement military-technical measures, to enforce this.
3/
#NATO and the #US (#Europe hasn't got anything to say) of course refused and here we are... In the implementation of the military-technological measures. How can #Russia now force NATO, to withdraw its infrastructure at the borders off 1996, without starting #WW3 or nuclear
Read 24 tweets
Sep 11
1/
Since many people asking why #Russia is still running a #SMO (Special military operation) and does not transform it into formal war and mobilises, I want to deliver some answers. #Ukraine is a small piece in the big geopolitical game, to end the Western hegemony over the world
2/
#Russia has dared to openly challenge the Western system (empire/colonization of most countries of the world, called globalization) and to show to the world, that it can withstand everything, the West can throw against it. This is not enough, Russia even want's to show, to its
3/
#BRICS partners, with which it wants to redefine the world order, that it can handle the Western retaliation measures (economical and militarily in #Ukraine) with ease. Why? To brag? No! To show, that every nation, that wants to join the future free world, can be safe
Read 20 tweets
Sep 11
1/
Some thoughts about the military perspective about what just happened in #Izyum / #Kharkov.
First let's talk about Kharkov in general. This region was very poorly defended by #Ukraine|ians the last few months. #Russia took the initiative and started a pinning operation.
2/
This was executed with very few troops as well, because more wasn't needed for the degree of resistance in this place. The goal of a pinning and holding operation is, to draw #Ukraine|ian troops away from other important frontline section, just to defend this "unimportant"
3/
area. This was very successful. A nice side effect of this pinning operation was, that #Russia gained ever more ground around #Kharkov city itself, which is a good starting point for future offensive operations. Since #Ukraine was forced to split its forces between Kharkov
Read 24 tweets
Sep 9
1/
Little math exercise here:
#Ukraine is pushing in #Kharkov with x troops and y reinforcements in the back. Also with z pieces of equipment. With this force they pushed into a certain area. The #Russia|ns has the same xyz. Due to technological superiority Russia is degrading
2/
#Ukraine's xyz far quicker then the other way around. Especially the Y (reinforcements) gets degraded by air- and missile strikes. Those are forces you need to push into the battle, to compensate the losses of the X (strike formations). This losses are huge, since they are in
3/
offensive against a technologically superior and defending enemy. #Russia's xyz is dramatically fast growing by the hour, as we speak, since Russia of course has activated the contingency plan, that is prepared for such a scenario. Until then the buffer around #Izyum needs to
Read 6 tweets
Sep 9
1/
This thread is about the fall off #Balakliia. Also about the #Russia|n bloggers and commentators that are seeing now the end coming and that everything is lost. Who calls for general mobilisation and use of nuclear weapons. This pisses me off, so that I, AGAIN, am forced
2/
to interrupt my Twitter pause. If it goes on like this, I'll delete my account again, to have my peace 🤣😅
Okay. First of all... Everything is okay. There is no panic among the #Russia|ns or their leadership. Why?
#Balakliya is a buffer area for the bigger Russian formations
3/
around #Izyum. You always need buffer areas around strategically important assets to be able to maneuver and apply mobile defense, if needed in the depth.
Now unfortunately #Balakliya did, what buffer areas do... Buy time and buffer off the first shock of an assault.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 7
1/
Today I want to put into perspective the Ukraine counter-offensive with the whole strategic picture of the #SMO. Thereby I will discuss potential goals of #Ukraine and possible consequences, executed by #Russia.
I want to start my analysis with two quotes.
#Kiev #Donbass
2/
Quote 1 from Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means".
Quote 2 from Scott Ritter: "By not losing, #Ukraine is winning this war. By not achieving the stated goals, #Russia is losing this war".
Keep this in mind during the reading of my analysis.
3/
What could be the political goals of #Ukraine (its Western backers)? To survive as a state, that has borders as close as possible to #Moscow and other big #Russia|n cities. (As we all know, the West gives a shit about Ukraine, its people and economy etc.)
#Kiev #NATO #Donbass
Read 28 tweets

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