Marco, the Yugo Surfer Profile picture
Executive, engineer and economist
Sep 12, 2022 24 tweets 14 min read
With this thread I want to address two issues.
a) How #Russia intends to defeat #NATO in #Europe non-militarily.
b) How destroying #Ukraine's power generation capabilities could contribute to this goal.
First some basics.
Russia proposed, At the end of 2021, to NATO and #US 2/
a new security architecture/framework for #Europe. To simplify it, we can say basically, #NATO needs to pull back all its military infrastructure behind its borders off the year 1996. Otherwise #Russia would implement military-technical measures, to enforce this.
Sep 11, 2022 20 tweets 13 min read
Since many people asking why #Russia is still running a #SMO (Special military operation) and does not transform it into formal war and mobilises, I want to deliver some answers. #Ukraine is a small piece in the big geopolitical game, to end the Western hegemony over the world 2/
#Russia has dared to openly challenge the Western system (empire/colonization of most countries of the world, called globalization) and to show to the world, that it can withstand everything, the West can throw against it. This is not enough, Russia even want's to show, to its
Sep 11, 2022 24 tweets 16 min read
Some thoughts about the military perspective about what just happened in #Izyum / #Kharkov.
First let's talk about Kharkov in general. This region was very poorly defended by #Ukraine|ians the last few months. #Russia took the initiative and started a pinning operation. 2/
This was executed with very few troops as well, because more wasn't needed for the degree of resistance in this place. The goal of a pinning and holding operation is, to draw #Ukraine|ian troops away from other important frontline section, just to defend this "unimportant"
Sep 10, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
The situation is an absolut smoking pile of shit.
From a military point of view it is manageable. Why?
#Russia pulls back and doesn't allow #Ukraine to destroy its valuable formations. The other way around Ukraine is losing manpower and equipment as never before.
Look at my 2/
quoted thread. Yes, #Ukraine achieved a big victory, but it is pyrrhic. Ukraine will have nothing left, after this massacre (full frontal assault without air cover).
Look my threads.
#Kharkov was a pinning operation and therefore a weak spot. #NATO exploited it by maximum
Sep 9, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Little math exercise here:
#Ukraine is pushing in #Kharkov with x troops and y reinforcements in the back. Also with z pieces of equipment. With this force they pushed into a certain area. The #Russia|ns has the same xyz. Due to technological superiority Russia is degrading 2/
#Ukraine's xyz far quicker then the other way around. Especially the Y (reinforcements) gets degraded by air- and missile strikes. Those are forces you need to push into the battle, to compensate the losses of the X (strike formations). This losses are huge, since they are in
Sep 9, 2022 9 tweets 6 min read
This thread is about the fall off #Balakliia. Also about the #Russia|n bloggers and commentators that are seeing now the end coming and that everything is lost. Who calls for general mobilisation and use of nuclear weapons. This pisses me off, so that I, AGAIN, am forced 2/
to interrupt my Twitter pause. If it goes on like this, I'll delete my account again, to have my peace 🤣😅
Okay. First of all... Everything is okay. There is no panic among the #Russia|ns or their leadership. Why?
#Balakliya is a buffer area for the bigger Russian formations
Sep 7, 2022 28 tweets 22 min read
Today I want to put into perspective the Ukraine counter-offensive with the whole strategic picture of the #SMO. Thereby I will discuss potential goals of #Ukraine and possible consequences, executed by #Russia.
I want to start my analysis with two quotes.
#Kiev #Donbass 2/
Quote 1 from Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means".
Quote 2 from Scott Ritter: "By not losing, #Ukraine is winning this war. By not achieving the stated goals, #Russia is losing this war".
Keep this in mind during the reading of my analysis.
Aug 12, 2022 10 tweets 9 min read
Some thoughts about the #Turkey membership in #NATO, its relationship with The West and the prospect of how it might going forwards.
Especially considering the problems with The West over #Russia, #Finland and #Sweden.
#greatdecoupling 2/
With #Erdogan in power, it is similar to #Russia's #Putin and his #Russia. #Turkiye got a leader that is only seeking the best results for his people. At the beginning the best development of Turkiye might have been a close relationship with The West. Yes.
Aug 11, 2022 26 tweets 13 min read
With this thread I want to adress the question, why #Russia is winning, even though she hasn't got the frequently quoted 3:1 advantage in troops. Moreover I want to describe the Russian military strategy a little deeper.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev 2/
This quote, of course, might be right. I know a few military books, where it is described like this.
But! This quote only applies, when two peer opponents fighting each other with similar quantitative and qualitative resources and possibilities.
#Ukraine #Donbass #Kiev
Jul 29, 2022 16 tweets 11 min read
Since many people asking why the (#US) United States would be interested in de-industrialize #Europe, I just decided, to explain it.
Europe, United states and all other Western states expanded its market access, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, 2/
dramatically, all over the world. Those Western countries were producing goods for the whole world and hindered those "customer" countries to build up an own reliable economy and industry.
#economics #Russia #US #EU #Europe
Jul 27, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
People asking all the time, why #Russia isn't telling straight forwardly, that the reduction of #gas flows to #Europe is a counter sanction. It annoys me as well, that they don't communicate it straight "in their face" that they are being recked currently. Well... 2/
Russia can't do that currently.
Because #Russia needs to be a reliable partner for the emerging new order and the (now overtaking) global south.
#Ukraine #BRICS #Europe #EU
Jul 27, 2022 8 tweets 8 min read
I want to add some more details about the potential reshaping of European alliances and territories.
Moreover I want to address the question about how #Serbia and #Hungary could survive opposing Western orders.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kiev #Donbass 2/
I was asking myself for some time, since the beginning of the #SMO, how does #Orban, from #Hungary, and #Vucic, from #Serbia, openly withstand the Western pressure, to comply. Why was I curious?
- They can't withstand The West militarily.
- They would be sanctioned to death.
Jul 25, 2022 20 tweets 15 min read
With this thread I want to re-explain in short, why #Russia is making little gains these days in #Ukraine. Especially amidst the steady reporting of the Western #MSM and various Western "intelligence" (propaganda) reports, that Russia's offensive is stalling. 2/
Of course I explained it in detail in my previous threads, which you can read as well.
See here.
The reason, why I decided to re-write it, is a conversation, that I had recently with some smart Western business and academic partners.
Jul 8, 2022 25 tweets 16 min read
Today I want to address the question about, how the #Russia|n troops were prepared for this conflict and how the preparations may look going forwards.
Especially against the background of the accusations, that the Russian troops were badly prepared and that #Ukraine will 2/
prepare a large army this year and start a large scale counter offensive against #Russia|n troops.
First of all, I can only offer my assumptions, I do NOT have deep insights.
Part 1 --> Russian troops were badly prepared:
Here we have a fundamental problem. When the invasion
Jun 27, 2022 24 tweets 15 min read
When will #Ukraine fall and what will trigger it?
Some thoughts about strategy:
Many people often discussing why Ukraine is holding on some undefendable places in #Donbass and by doing this, sacrificing a huge quantity of people and material.
The best current example is 2/
the battle for #Severodonestk and #Lyssytschansk.
Well, of course I do not have inside information, but here are my assumptions.
The #Donbass (and some neighboring oblasts as well) is the industrial center of #Ukraine. From my point of view all Western, and Ukrainian
May 29, 2022 21 tweets 13 min read
Recently I was writing about the strategic military situation in #Ukraine in context to the analysis of #ScottRitter. Today I want to add some more information. Scott is pointing out some "difficulties" that he sees in the #Russia|n military campaign. I want to name them 2/
and try to explain, why I do not share his concerns. Not because I want to "debunk" something, but I think, Scott is thinking mainly from a military perspective, and that's why it is always not wrong, to add political and economical elements to it.
#Russia #Ukraine #Donbass
May 23, 2022 24 tweets 16 min read
I want to give an assessment about the state of the war and what I think how it will continue. Moreover I want to address shortly the dispute between #ScottRitter and @GonzaloLira1968.
Eventually I want to add a political dimension to the whole picture.
#Ukraine #Russia #Kiev 2/
First of all I want to state, that I do support Scott's assessment about the current state of the operation. Why? There is a special military operation ongoing, whose objective is, to free #Novorossiya, and probably either integrate it into #Russia or establish it as a new