The last 48 hours have seen some stunning battlefield developments in #Ukraine. Ukrainian operations in the northeast continue to exploit its penetration of Russian defences. 1/18 🧵 
2/ There is much that remains unclear about these offensives. But #Ukraine clearly achieved surprise against the Russians in the #Kharkiv region. Deception has been central to all Ukrainian preparations for this phase of the war.
3/ That it was able to exploit this opportunity indicates that Ukraine had an excellent plan to deceive Russian overhead collection assets as well as their tactical reconnaissance and surveillance.
4/ While Russian focus was primarily on the south, #Ukraine planned & launched an operation in the north. The south was not a feint. The north and south are mutually supporting offensives in a larger Ukrainian operational design. What might this mean in the days ahead?
5/ It will compromise Russian operations on their eastern front. The capture of the key transportation hub of Kupiansk hurts the Russians. It compromises Russian supply routes and introduces a larger psychological issue with Russians fighting in the east.
6/ It also makes it difficult for Russia to continue to fight in the east without dealing with this threat to their rear areas and logistics. And to do so, they may also have to pull troops from the south, creating other opportunities for Ukraine.
7/ Because of this Russian reinforcement ‘shell game’, we might see cascading Russian tactical withdrawals and failures in various regions as a consequence.
8/ Interestingly, the Ukrainians have been able to largely deny the Russians use of the air. They appear to have minimised the Russians use of airpower to blunt the northern Ukrainian offensive. There are big lessons here. gagadget.com/en/165425-dest…
9/ There are also likely to be significant Russian material losses in the north, given the speed of the Ukrainian advance. Overrunning Russian supply depots (especially with artillery ammo and fuel) will further hurt the Russians & help Ukraine.
10/ We will probably see significant numbers of Russian prisoners in the north. These soldiers will be hard to replace, given Russian recruiting problems. It will be a strategic influence coup for Ukraine, and a big problem for Putin. newsweek.com/russia-ukraine…
11/ The shift in the momentum of the war will have big impacts on the influence battle in Europe as well as China. In Europe, it will reinforce the case for ongoing military and economic support to #Ukraine despite Russia’s ‘energy warfare’.
12/ In China, this is a huge embarrassment for Xi in the lead up to the 16 October Party Congress. Not only has he shackled himself to a loser (Putin), but his ‘decline of the west’ narrative is again challenged. And support for defending #Taiwan is probably growing.
13/ There are some tactical and operational risks for #Ukraine. A Russian counterattack might block or ‘pinch off’ the penetration & isolate the advancing Ukrainians. But the Russians need to move quickly to do this, and may not have sufficient reserves to do so.
14/ However, the Ukrainians are unpredictable, and it will be hard for the Russians to respond to the current Ukrainian operational tempo. The Ukrainians, using mission command, are operating inside the Russian tactical and operational OODA loops.
15/ The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble. Because of this, we should watch for some unexpected reaction from Putin. He (unlike some of his senior military officers) has shown no signs of believing the invasion is in trouble.
16/ That said, it should be recalled that Luhansk, large parts of Donetsk and southern #Ukraine (including Crimea) are still occupied by the Russians. Subsequent Ukrainian offensives will be necessary to clear the Russians from these areas.
17/ But, #Ukraine now has the initiative in this war, as well as tactical and operational momentum going into winter. The war is not over, but perhaps the tide is finally turning. End.
18/ Thank you to those whose images I used in this thread: @DefenceU @IAPonomarenko @WarMonitor3 @yarotrof @War_Mapper @nytimes @thestudyofwar @criticalthreats
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
