🍁 - Toren Hynes, M.Sc. - 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Sep 17, 2022 9 tweets 8 min read Read on X
I bet at least *some* of you have checked TropicalTidbits.com or windy.com and seen the 0Z Euro -- a Cat 3 hurricane (#FIONA) making landfall near St Margarets Bay next Sat AM.
Before you say "we're doomed" let me explain a bit. #NSwx #NBwx #PEwx #NLwx (1/x) Image
This is only ONE of several possible solutions. The other two major global models (GFS and CMC) show solutions that are either weaker (CMC) or much farther east (GFS).
(2/x) GFS model shows a hurricane...CMC shows a weaker post-tro...
Here are the ensembles (multiple runs of the same model with slightly perturbed initial conditions) for #FIONA.
As you can see, there's still considerable uncertainty in the track, however, the GFS is a bit farther east than the Euro.
Why? (3/x) GFS ensembles show Fiona pa...Euro ensembles are a bit fa...
One major question re: the future track of #FIONA (arrow) is this shortwave trough, fcst to move over Maine & Nova Scotia Tuesday evening.
Note differences between GFS, CMC, & Euro (see alt text).
This is a small feature and models aren't having an easy time resolving it. (4/x) The Euro shows a very weak ...The CMC shows a slightly st...The GFS shows the strongest...
We can see divergence even within 48 hrs.
The GFS is quick to send #FIONA north, taking it right over Puerto Rico.
The CMC and Euro aren't so quick, sending the storm through the Mona Passage.
Given that FIONA has tended to stray south, the CMC/Euro may be more correct. (5/x) 00Z Euro sends Fiona just S...00Z CMC takes the storm jus...The GFS quickly recurves Fi...
The final leg of #FIONA's journey again depends on timing.
A large, deep trough (yellow) will sweep over Eastern North America on Friday afternoon.
This will pick up FIONA (red), and sling it north.
Where FIONA goes depends on its alignment with the trough (see alt text).
(6/x) The Euro has Fiona and the ...The CMC has Fiona and the t...The GFS has Fiona the farth...
@TropicalTidbits himself provides an excellent discussion of the complexities of this forecast in yesterday's video: (7/x)
So, what's the key takeaway?
While there is the POTENTIAL for #FIONA to be highly impactful weather event, I can see several scenarios in which FIONA is a complete miss (except for shipping interests).
I would, however, use this time to double-check your hurricane plans. (8/8)

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More from @TorenWX

Aug 15
1/ If you live on the Avalon Peninsula, I would suggest getting prepared for hurricane #ERNESTO. All the global models are showing a landfall, possibly at hurricane intensity, on Monday night.
While this track may yet shift, it's a good time to be prepared.
#NLStorm


00Z Euro shows Ernesto making landfall as a 984 mbar storm on the Avalon on Monday night.
12Z ICON shows Ernesto making landfall on the Avalon Peninsula on Monday night.
12Z CMC shows Ernesto making a close approach to the Avalon Tuesday morning.
12Z GFS shows Ernesto making landfall on the Avalon on Monday night.
2/ #ERNESTO is currently a large Category 1 hurricane, with max winds of 75 knots, or 140 km/h. Its large size is slowing its intensification, however it means that impacts will be felt over a wide area.
It is likely to affect Bermuda as a Cat 2 on Sat AM.
3/ Although current model consensus keeps #ERNESTO's core away from Nova Scotia, high surf will be an issue starting Sunday and going into Monday.
It may also get close enough that its outer rainbands will deliver showers and gusty winds, esp to Cape Breton/E Mainland. #NSStorm


00Z Euro shows Ernesto just barely missing Cape Breton on Monday evening, but getting close enough to deliver rain showers.
12Z ICON shows Ernesto getting close enough to Nova Scotia to deliver a few rain showers and gusty winds.
12Z CMC shows an outer rainband from Ernesto dropping light rain across Cape Breton.
12Z GFS shows Ernesto delivering light rain showers to Cape Breton Island.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 27, 2022
Some photographs of the damage from Hurricane #FIONA. Trees down everywhere! A huge spruce tree in the f...A toppled spruce tree next ...A tangle of fallen trees bl...A tangle of fallen trees, f...
Running an Alaskan mill to make boards out of some of the trees blown down by #FIONA. If you choose to do this, make sure you have a board cutting chain, otherwise your boards will turn out very rough! A few freshly sawn boards l...A chainsaw in an Alaskan Mi...Another angle of the chains...
Bits of trees (branches, leaves, needles) covering my #SolarPanels and my #Tesla. #FIONA Solar panels in a lawn with...A white Tesla covered in bi...
Read 5 tweets
Mar 20, 2022
Alright, folks, where did I take these photographs? #NaturePhotography #Spring #Lake #Brook A brook flowing between mossy bouldersAn 8 inch birch tree felled by a beaver. Toren's hand for coA slow-moving brook flowing through a conifer forest.A lake and a small pond, both surrounded by coniferous fores
I'm sure lots of you would have had all kinds of guesses, but I am also sure none of you would have had "an island off the Eastern Shore" as your answer.
Here's the zoomed out version of the image I showed previously.
All the photos were taken on Wolfe's Island. #NovaScotia A lake and a pond surrounded by conifer forest, with ocean a
A few more photos from Wolfe's Island, including the cabin where I spent the day, and what the rest of the island looks like. A red cabin on a rock by the ocean, with a blue motorboat inAerial photograph of a barren landscape, with two lakes and A large forested cliff rising straight from the ocean.Top-down view of a rocky, seaweed-covered shoreline with sil
Read 5 tweets
May 27, 2021
This is going to be controversial, but here goes.
Although I do believe in #GenderEquality, I don't consider myself to be a #feminist.
I will explain the reasons why in this thread... (1/x)
First let's look at the Meriam-Webster definition of the word...

"[A] belief in and advocacy of the political, economic, and social equality of the sexes expressed especially through organized activity on behalf of women's rights and interests."

(2/x)
This definition: ✔️
However, the people that call themselves "feminists" don't always reflect this reality.
Even if you are committed to improving the rights of women, you might very well not be a feminist.
Why? (3/x)
Read 12 tweets
May 13, 2021
Alright: today's the day.
I'm going to use the #CanSIPS to try and figure out some of the puzzle pieces of the #HurricaneSeason, which starts in 14 days.
First thing to notice: NO El Nino. The equatorial Pacific is coolish, & the Atlantic is warm.
El Nino suppresses hurricanes.🧵
Next: there's lots of rising motion over the Indian Ocean (green colour) and sinking motion over the Eastern Pacific (red colour).
That leads to more robust tropical waves coming off Africa, which have a higher chance of developing into tropical cyclones.
So this forecasts suggests a busy hurricane season in the Atlantic.
We have low pressure in the Atlantic, that favours tropical wave development into TC's.
The Bermuda High is weak, so a lot of storms will likely recurve.
But, if said storms make it to the western Atlantic...
Read 7 tweets

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