Thread by @TorenWX

I bet at least *some* of you have checked TropicalTidbits.com or windy.com and seen the 0Z Euro -- a Cat 3 hurricane (#FIONA) making landfall near St Margarets Bay next Sat AM.
Before you say "we're doomed" let me explain a bit. #NSwx #NBwx #PEwx #NLwx (1/x)

This is only ONE of several possible solutions. The other two major global models (GFS and CMC) show solutions that are either weaker (CMC) or much farther east (GFS).
(2/x)

Here are the ensembles (multiple runs of the same model with slightly perturbed initial conditions) for #FIONA.
As you can see, there's still considerable uncertainty in the track, however, the GFS is a bit farther east than the Euro.
Why? (3/x)

One major question re: the future track of #FIONA (arrow) is this shortwave trough, fcst to move over Maine & Nova Scotia Tuesday evening.
Note differences between GFS, CMC, & Euro (see alt text).
This is a small feature and models aren't having an easy time resolving it. (4/x)

We can see divergence even within 48 hrs.
The GFS is quick to send #FIONA north, taking it right over Puerto Rico.
The CMC and Euro aren't so quick, sending the storm through the Mona Passage.
Given that FIONA has tended to stray south, the CMC/Euro may be more correct. (5/x)

The final leg of #FIONA's journey again depends on timing.
A large, deep trough (yellow) will sweep over Eastern North America on Friday afternoon.
This will pick up FIONA (red), and sling it north.
Where FIONA goes depends on its alignment with the trough (see alt text).
(6/x)

@TropicalTidbits himself provides an excellent discussion of the complexities of this forecast in yesterday's video: (7/x)

So, what's the key takeaway?
While there is the POTENTIAL for #FIONA to be highly impactful weather event, I can see several scenarios in which FIONA is a complete miss (except for shipping interests).
I would, however, use this time to double-check your hurricane plans. (8/8)

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