Thread by @FeraSY1

Let's read some history and learn about the FED, $DXY, #FOMC rates through they key events last 50 years

why 2022 is more like 1980?
is holding cash during inflationary crisis is good or bad?

Thread 🧵

Except early 1980 inflation crisis, The FED had one answer to every other financial crisis, simply decreasing rates & pushing liquidity (aka printing brrrrrr $)

Starting 2008, we got QE (Quantitative Easing) in which the FED , purchases securities from the open market

that rates cut + QE + pushing liquidity was always the amazing solution for every financial crisis -again, except early 80s

why early 80s is different?
simply cuz all other crisis were markets generated, like DotCom bubble, housing market bubble, ...

so almost every crisis was immediately followed by rates cut, fiat printing, and recently QE

let's talk the last 25 years, starting from dot com bubbles till covid crash, it was always the same "great" short term solution

printers-ON, rates-CUT- BRRRRRRR .. Fixed

Why short term? cuz it was adding more & more fiat into supply building the momentum for the next inflation crisis

here we go back to 1980

Only a serious rate hike to 19-20% could immediately stop the soaring inflation✍️🏻

read what's written on chart ;)

in 2022, we have nothing like Dot Com bubble or 2008 housing market crisis, it's all again "inflation crisis"

So the only solution will be is a serious hikes
we started with 25bp, I won't be surprised if we see 100+ bp hikes in near future, otherwise we gonna keep playing around

So that is why, 2022 is more like 1980, and it is never like 2000, 2008 or mid 90s Asian crisis.

$DXY chart is telling clearly, CASH IS THE KING during crisis, even the inflationary ones!

it is the 1st serious crisis since #bitcoin invented
imo, it'll just follow legacy market

-Conclusion

1/2:

2022 crisis is more like 1980

the #FED is acting super soft compared to 1980, trying to achieve something called "soft-landing"

#Cash is a king, even during/after fiat-inflation crisis

2/2

$DXY top is a bit shifted (late), accordingly, imo, the #safe aggressive buys for #stocks & #BTC is when the FED stops hiking rates for 2 consecutive meetings, Which means the FED believe that recession hit & they start to post another inflationary cycle

till then, SURVIVE

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https://twitter.com/FeraSY1/status/1571877489735237635

One more thing
As the subjected reading is about $dxy and FED rates, so when we say "Cash is a king" I definitely refer to the US Dollar, not any other currency 🤝

$USD