Thread by @SabFis3

So now we have it: #Putin is escalating #RussiaInvadesUkraine. The events that started unfolding today indicate that we will experience a repetition of the week of 21 Februar (recognition of #DLNR and beginning of the invasion) – only at a different level.
#StandwithUkraine

All four occupied or partly occupied territories (Luhansk, Donezk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) have declared they will hold (fake) referenda 23-27 September. This looks very much like a concerted action, steered from Moscow (and, in the Kremlin administration, Sergey Kirienko).

Statements coming from the State Duma and the RU MFA support this assumption. Chief propagandist Margarita Simonyan (once again) calls upon Putin to „take the territories home“.

What the Kremlin wants:
-freeze the current front line and fix the remaining territorial gains (in light of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive)
-increase the costs for Ukraine, because after the annexation...

...any Ukrainian counteroffensive will be seen as a direct attack „against Russian territory“
-intimidate the West, including with nuclear blackmail: the Russian National Security Doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons in the event of attacks „against Russian territory“.

Here Moscow targets a) Western weapon supplies (which are essential for future Ukrainian military advances) and b) forces in the West who might push Kyiv to negotiate accept disadvantageous concessions.

What the West should do:
-withstand Russian pressure. Today’s moves indicate how brittle Putin’s war effort has become
-stick to and increase military support for Ukraine
-announce new sanctions: if Russia follows through with the annexations...

... a full-scale energy embargo against Russia should finally be put in place
-use the UNGA in New York to reach out to Beijing and Ankara to build up resistance against this particular Russian move.

Xi and Erdogan have signaled scepticism with regard to Russia’s war recently (see Erdogan’s RBC interview today) and they have access – this must be used to prevent this escalation from happening.

I am not very hopeful myself. But everything that can be done must be done. There is a lot at stake – we will see what happens in the next few days…

Apparently Putin will give an extracurricular speech later today about patrial mobilisation and martial law.
t.me/moscowtimes_ru…