One reason why I'm not at all concerned about the #mobilization in #Russia is that even if the Russian "logistics" doesn't incapacitate the reservists via starvation and exposure, human wave attacks are obsolete.
For example, witness the GMLRS-AW. 1/
For example, witness the GMLRS-AW. 1/
These can be fired from #HIMARS and MLRS systems, such as those used by #Ukraine and #Finland among others. Each carries ~160 000 tungsten fragments that kill a man easily and even penetrate light armor. They can be fired from over 70 kilometers away and detonate above ground. 2/
They are accurately guided and can be fired in salvoes that cover the target area very efficiently and detonate almost simultaneously, leaving the victims no time to take cover. (Simple trenches or foxholes are insufficient anyway because the fragments come from above.) 3/
The end result is like God using His holy shotgun to make mincemeat.
This is not your granddad's artillery, which in itself was perfectly capable of mincing human wave attacks if it was available. This is far worse, the stuff of pure nightmares. *I* fear these things. 4/
This is not your granddad's artillery, which in itself was perfectly capable of mincing human wave attacks if it was available. This is far worse, the stuff of pure nightmares. *I* fear these things. 4/
As I argued yesterday, Russia will struggle even reactivating old Soviet heavy weapons in quantities needed to equip the reservists. Russia begs for ammunition from North Korea. Their supply system cannot even properly feed the men they already have. 5/
https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1572873162877960193?s=20&t=07RwreWiN1cX4p9lue6JJg
(BTW you are really doing badly when even fricking North Korea considers it slander to say that North Korea has been supplying weapons or ammunition to Russia, and vehemently denies doing so) 6/
bbc.com/news/world-asi…
bbc.com/news/world-asi…
Winter is coming. Russian military couldn't properly equip or even feed its men in the run-up to the invasion. It isn't magically any easier now.
Russian reservists and lickspittles of Russia will find out that machismo cannot overcome basic thermodynamics. 7/
Russian reservists and lickspittles of Russia will find out that machismo cannot overcome basic thermodynamics. 7/
If the Russian reservists even reach the front en masse, then tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of practically untrained men would be without adequate food, shelter, or warm clothing. The front lines have already been looted and every shelter is a target. 8/
Exposure alone, especially when compounded by poor nutrition, would cause massive casualties.
Some Russian soldiers would almost certainly starve to death.
And Ukrainian artillery and small units continue to reap their bloody harvest. 9/
Some Russian soldiers would almost certainly starve to death.
And Ukrainian artillery and small units continue to reap their bloody harvest. 9/
The living will be huddling together for warmth, incapable of doing much anything of military value. They will eventually light fires to avoid freezing to death, just like their great-grandfathers in Finnish forests once.
They, too, will be hunted by determined defenders. 10/
They, too, will be hunted by determined defenders. 10/
But this time, the defenders have modern night vision equipment, drones, long-range artillery, and everything else needed to savage poorly equipped and trained Russians.
The sunflowers will grow tall next summer. 11/
The sunflowers will grow tall next summer. 11/
Russian military could not win with its best troops and weapons.
Almost untrained reservists using vintage Soviet heavy weapons - if even that - won't do better.
And the U.S. Lend-Lease Act goes into effect on October 1st. 12/12
Almost untrained reservists using vintage Soviet heavy weapons - if even that - won't do better.
And the U.S. Lend-Lease Act goes into effect on October 1st. 12/12
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
