Thread by @CaterinaFroio

There is still quite a lot to digest about yesterday's #ElezioniPolitiche2022 but it's a rainy Monday in Paris, so here's four main points on which @PietroCastelliG & I agree about the results. A🧵:

1. Italians are disillusioned with electoral politics, more than ever.
Turnout dropped by about 9% from 72.9% in 2018 to 63.8% in 2022. As noticed by @Vinceman86 & B. Marino this is one of the biggest drops in turnout in Western Europe since 1945. bit.ly/3SC8Pi2

Furthermore, electoral participation is all but equally distributed between the centre/north (Emilia-Romagna Veneto and Lombardy above 70%) & the South (Calabria 51% Sardinia and Campania 53%) bit.ly/3rbk716

2. The mainstream and the far right are now fully blended.
The far-right #FratellidItalia won big: it collected over 7mln votes and grew from 4% in 2018 to 26% in 2022; its allies instead lost big: #Lega fell from 17% to 8,8%, #ForzaItalia from 14% to 8,1%

The coalition that won the 2022 elections is not too different from the right-wing bloc that dominated Italian politics since the 1990s. Importantly, however, the balance of power has changed drastically, with #FdI collecting more votes than its two allies together.

While some have argued that #Berlusconi may be a moderating force in the upcoming government, it is difficult to see a strong distinction between the mainstream (or centre-right populist) and #farright components of the Italian political right
bit.ly/3BIL5Cl

3.The #PD is a failed political project.
It failed to improve the poor score of the latest elections: 18,7% in2018, 19% in2022. It lost votes:6,1 mln in2018 & 5,3 mln in2022. Since its foundation, the PD lost big in 3/4 of national elections (2008,2018,2022) & did not win in2013

PD campaign strategy focused on the return of #Fascism, which was highly INEFFECTIVE in a country with no tradition of “cordon sanitaire”, where the #faright has been in parliament since the end of 2WW, and where nativist ideas have been normalised in politics for decades

Moreover, this strategy was INCOHERENT for it was not accompanied by the actual construction of a set of electoral alliances that could work as a bulwark against the #farright (notably with the #M5S)

4.The M5S has lost half of the votes but might have found a lasting identity.
Compared to 2018, it has halved its support: from 32,7% to 15,4%.Still, M5S made a spectacular comeback (2 months ago it polled below 10%) &former PM #Conte managed to consolidate the party in the South

Whilst many observers (and party leaders) had forecasted the end of M5S after revoking support to the #Draghi government, the results testify that Conte's choice to embrace mildly expansive positions on welfare & the environment paid off electorally

It remains to be seen whether the M5S will confirm this agenda once in parliament: not only many of its leaders are no longer MPs, but Conte and his party are known for being chameleonic. bit.ly/3BLRZGT