Tweet

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 2

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in #Ukraine. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The practice of prematurely assigning cadets to reserve regiments will likely further degrade already-poor command structures. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Underprepared cadets will be forced into leadership roles with insufficient training and little or no professional experience. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Read 4 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 2

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces liberated #Lyman on October 1. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources indicated that the BARS-13 detachment that was holding the Russian defensive line in #Drobysheve, just northwest of #Lyman, withdrew to #Kreminna (about 25km east of Lyman). /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources discussed Ukrainian attacks north of #Lyman around #Torske, #Terny, and #Yampilske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing efforts to take settlements north of Lyman as well. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Read 6 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 2

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576380512725131264

🧵Russian commentators overwhelmingly expressed their hopes that partial mobilization would generate enough force to resume offensive operations and regain the initiative. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576380512725131264

2/ Chechen leader Ramzan #Kadyrov, apparently devastated by the defeat in #Lyman, called on #Russia to continue to fight to "liberate” the four annexed territories with all available means including low-yield nuclear weapons. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

3/ #Kadyrov’s call to use tactical nuclear weapons is likely incompatible with his own and other Russian statements and actions showing continued commitment to seizing more Ukrainian territory. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Read 9 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 2

@criticalthreats

Ukrainian forces inflicted another significant operational defeat on #Russia and liberated #Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, on October 1.

Read our latest campaign assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of Russian troops from #Lyman to “more advantageous positions” to avoid the “threat of encirclement” in the settlement. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Social media footage and Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces have entered #Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1

Read 5 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Oct 1

Putin announced the illegal #Russian annexation of four #Ukrainian territories without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories or making even basic administrative decisions on boundaries and governance.

isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…

2/ Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to specify the borders of the newly annexed territories in a September 30 conversation with reporters: "[the] Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics [DNR and LNR] were recognized by Russia within the borders of 2014...

...As for the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, I need to clarify this. We will clarify everything today," Peskov said. isw.pub/RusCampaignSep…

Read 9 tweets

ISW

@TheStudyofWar

Sep 30

New assessment: #Putin renewed his attempt to compel #Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire by again threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons. He is likely aiming to scare the West into pressuring Ukraine into a ceasefire, which he will use to rearm.🧵isw.pub/PutinNuclearTh…

@TheStudyofWar

@TheStudyofWar cannot predict if or when #Putin will use a nuclear weapon. His latest threats are not fundamentally new nor indicate imminent preparation for their use. The crossing of Putin’s stated red lines in #Ukraine has thus far not triggered threatened nuclear use. 2/

#Putin is most likely to employ a nuclear weapon if he believes it will not draw direct Western conventional military intervention and if he believes it can have decisive effects within #Ukraine. 3/ isw.pub/PutinNuclearTh…

Read 7 tweets

Share this page!

ISW

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW

ISW

ISW

ISW

ISW

ISW

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!