Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Official :
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated 5 settlements near Lyman in the Donetsk Region and around 5k Ru soldiers (but we still don't know exactly who moved out and in so it could be less) are almost trapped in the area of #Lyman
Several scenarii could unfold now

2/ Ukr can "provoke" reaction from Russians and wait until they have no more ammo to fight back as no one can send them more.
they can also (they already do that) pick appart & interdict any attempts of breaking in/out, (to help the trapped troops or to escape).
they can also

3/ wait for the night to come to produce their max effort, (just teasing defense and exhausting Ru troops during the day) during the night, using their superior night vision / materials / skills.. doing so a couple of days before just waiting for Ru morale to definitely crumble.

4/ They can also try to isolate some groups and capture some important officer (like the "corps francs" during WWI, real trenches "corsaires" & the real ppl at the origin of modern SOF... Also big up to ex bro of the 2e RH) and then try to coerce them in agreeing to surrender.

5/ i have no news about the 3-4 BTGs that should have been sent by Ru in order to help their brothers to fight back or break the pocket lines...
still waiting for more infos.

Also note that west outskirt of #Kreminna seems to be already under some pressure.
could be direct

6/ direct actions to interdict reinforcements coming through this road..
some Ru even complaints that they are picking appart & every time heavy vehicle goes in the area, they are under heavy fires (ATGMs or shelling or else)
& Ru have no troops to go fight one/one there.

7/ Also now that this pocket is going to fall (even if it takes few days) we can foresee the next moves and lines of defense that Ru are certainly going to try to defend.
As #UAarmy is pushing to these directions (purple arrow) : on the #Borova #Raihorodka direction, several

8/ reports that Ukrainians are past #Izyumske in the direction of #Kopanky , but we do not have the effort there, number of troops involved and global actions. But it seems that my last assessment was correct & do not aim directly to #Borova, but maybe to do another pocket there.

9/ and on the East side... once #Zarichne totally secured, they will push east at least up to #Kreminna & then Russ might want to use both the natural #Krasna river to protect the axis Kreminna #Krasnorichenske on one part and of course Krasnorichens'ke to #Makiivka also, as

10/ it is going to be of a primal importance for them to protect this famous axis up to #Svatove, if they want to keep under control the famous #railway line i've shown several time, that is directly connecting to the heart of #Luhansk Oblast.

11/ update : there are few rumors out there following these new "update" but several things are really "fishy" at best, & details does not all add up & make sense..
but the global situation as he "perceives" it, is quite real...
Truth is lots of Ru were killed & make prisoners