Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Operational situation update / #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 2, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace around #Lyman. Lots of reports/evidence that #UAarmy is still moving forward & ready to take good chunk of #kreminna . Ru did not prepared
#UkraineMap

2/ Situation around #Kreminna is getting critical for the Russians. According to this Russian report, the #Svatove - #Kreminna highway is under threat.

one week ago they just thought they would stay in Lyman, not ready to defend Kreminna at all now, also they lack preparations,

3/ materials, men (dead injured) and if the city falls, this could potentially create a direct threat of encirclement of #Lysyschansk .
they know that & they are freaking out!
thanks to @wartranslated for translation here.

4/ in the others area, the tactical defense is going according to previous global strategical plan. so the Ukr are fighting only to keep destroying Ru stupid "advance" around #Bakhmut up to the end of line near #Marinka but don't get fooled. surprises awaits there too. soon.

5/ now as for the area btw #Kerson & #KriviyRih Russian sources have also confirmed the breakthrough of the front, #UAarmy have taken over zolote balka also kreshenivka, shevchenivka, lyubumivka and are advancing towards the south. UA sources give AFU even down to #Dudchany

6/ which would imply also several things in coming days if confirms & if they are not forced to a hard stop : UA are going to push in both direction now, in order to create a bottle neck situation like they just did near #Lyman (& the fear is now in all Russian heads bc of that)

7/ maybe not trying so much to "pocket" them but to force them to withdraw from the area while picking them appart, generating huge amount of wounded & then after some times, maybe put their hands on some more materials & ammo left behind by the Ru in their collective rush out.

8/ we knew about the forces around lyman so it was much more easy to assess that this was going to happen eventually. here, in the south, the commanding officers are better, some good troops actually &lots of men
so. we'll see how this will go down.
i'm just showing "potential".

9/ last gen staff report

10/ my last excel tab for the day & week recap

11/

12/ recap of past week Ru alleged losses per category (not the first 4 weeks as it was more than "hazardous" and really not well "supervised" & reported...

13/ basically for the 4th week in a row we are on a deep deep dive for Ru army... going on like that, they won't have a pro army no more in about 8 to 12 weeks. (at this constant rate of attrition) then they could always try to fight launching Samovar or hot Bortsch to stop Ukr

14/ direct infography for reference
(even if there is no more real BTGs as we speak, but more "frankenstein" units made of infantry/mech & patches of diff equipements as they can obtain them and "stich" them to survival/preexisting units)

15/ A reminder with comparaison of Existing BTG back then when they were in full deployment in April :
versus now in purple (thanks to Henry back then for the infographie)
hard to assess but that's based on actual units materials estimations (diff from only men, coming in..)

16/ basic russian materials used in Ukraine for reference.

17/ general use of Ru #missiles in #Ukraine just for ref
i'm still looking for a global infographie for all Drones in use in Ukraine though...

18/ et pour les Fra un petit "plaisir" pour revoir les rapports de forces avant guerre - (gen pour ref, mais "sympa" et on notera d'autant plus les délires russes complets sur les pertes supposées infligées aux Ukr)

19/ NB. le gen staff a récemment réaffirmé que 60 à 80% des forces aériennes (existants plus cumulés donc avec les aéronefs "rapportés") étaient toujours en état de vol et actif!
(ils n'ont pas donné un chiffre precis, bien sur, afin de ne pas trop donner d'infos aux Ru).

20/ ok I also like to recap all ru officers losses every end of the week, but it seems that our friend : @KilledInUkraine is totally submerged by the recent overload of work 😂😂😂 like our dear @oryxspioenkop who needs some extra coffee each & every collapse of a Ru pocket

21/ Next in line to fight...

https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1576576461993299968

22/ GTFO!
Loud and clear! And no panic! do not panic! #Girkin
(Calling for air support via telegram lolololol)

23/ i've seen also that Girkin is saying that #UAarmy could have up to 3 to 4 mechanized brigades plus one full armored brigade past #Dudchany. That's probably more than 10k-12k men and hundreds of vehicles but i'm not sure about that though & don't know how he could be so sure..

24/ Same could happen tonight & in coming 48h if the offensive is still going on in the south, on the same pace.

25/ Also today was reported by the administration and SBU that hard ongoing talk were happening between Russia and Ukraine to release the last 2500 Ukr prisoners in the hand of Russia. (So i guess the Ru ex official of 6500 prisoners was not right lol).
Idk what would be the

26/ status of the "release" prisoners because as may have noted, it is certainly one of the first time in history when you would give back prisoners (not only deeply injured ones) during an ongoing full war.
so maybe they would agree on a special "retirement" status.. IDK.

27/ Also some news Russian recruits are now coming in from diff places : "Up To 5,000 Mobilized Russians Undergoing Combat Training In #Budyonnovsk In Russia - General Staff"
but not enough (good for Ukr if they dropped Ru units/Brigade at this rate with no real direct purpose)

28/ in the meantime ...
Five brigades of the territorial defense forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received combat flags
Handing over the Battle flags is recognition of the military merits of the unit.
so even the "territorial def" is now better (or almost equal) at combat

29/ readiness & abilities than the "best" Ru units. or soon it's gonna be true as all their best units are going down one by one from the first day of war
"funny" enough, there won't be much of good "sous off" or "officers" quite soon to help all the new incoming "fresh" Ru units

30/ Also Macron was severely reprimanded few days ago, by Putin, because Fra is still giving as much as they can (but not making publicity of it contrary to other countries) & some nice TRF1 (not all 100's) are on their way to complete the "nice" Caesars lignesdedefense.blogs.ouest-france.fr/archive/2022/0…

31/ so it not as "efficient" as a CAESAR, but.
to give you an idea the deal could be about 80 to 90 pieces of the equivalent of the M777 and with special automotive ability it can move itself up to 8km/h (after being release by the tow truck)
this is huge
bfmtv.com/economie/entre…

32/ Now... about kamikaze drones and shitty #Iranian help to #Russia... (i've created new category in my excel tab, but as i was not like months ago able to follow everything lately i'm not 100% sure of the numbers of drones that were used this past 10 days)
Anyway.. soon this

33/ Shahed-136 kamikaze drone, which was designated “Geran-2” in Russia. will not be of no more real help as it's gonna be suppressed / destroyed /interdicted as soon at will reach a certain defense "bubble" around specific Ukr target.
US agreed to deliver an entire system of

34/ of integrated sytems : The Titan C-UAS system.
The system analyzes the UAV that needs to be neutralized and selects the most effective methods of combating it. The developers equipped the system with an automated decision-making mechanism.

mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…

35/ so Iranian bitch toys won't be of any use pretty soon.
Also other countries has now agreed to send their own systems on some other part of the territory in order to fully protect some areas up north or East. (i'll explain.. stay put)
another link army.mil/article/228867…

36/ also this week, as now we are officially in a lend/lease programm, Biden said that some more weapons (and really nice ones...) will be send to equip Ukrainian army to their request.
rest assure, of the good use of them all !

37/ A couple free settlements a day keeps the doctor away 😁😁😁👍

38/ The debris of the Russian vini 4,"uvača-Bombarduvalʹnika" lol Su-34, RF-81852 found in #Liman . They haven't hit the net before, so it's +1 to confirmed Russian losses and a hundred percent minus of about 36 million US dollars from the budget of the Russian Federation. lost!

39/ #Dudchany ongoing update...
Ru are in deep deep trouble... seems confirmed now

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576676389981687808

40/ symbols are strong...

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1576672407645224960

41/ yes one ship is sinking.... another one is rising....
(just to avoid 36 comments about previous tweet)

42/ & the program is on a good path now.. keep rolling, & more need to be trained because as i said.., it's "fun" now, but as ex General Palomeros (some can remember i always praised him!) said tonight Ru numbers may present some real challenge in near future.
necessary reminder

43/ official #Kreshchenivka in the #Kherson region - under the control of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

Also, Ukrainian troops are moving further to Berislav.

Ru are "withdrawing to convenient frontiers" & "waiting for reinforcements and help"
what defense doin'??? #NAFOfellas

44/ "The soldiers were clearly told to feed bullshit to the doctors, which created an internal line of bullshit. That bullshit was then reported to their superiors, who fed that bullshit up to central command. So they got a totally fake view of the front."
unherd.com/2022/09/why-uk…

45/ last little side note..
even Gen staff praised our beloved cats & dogs..
so you better put some more on your Time line bordayl!
because or you r pretending not to care or you were a "poor" kid not raised w all these amazing companions!
be careful i'm watching you!
(lol)