(1/8) At the beginning of the year we highlighted #consumerstaples as a sector that should outperform at this stage of the business cycle. Pepsi $PEP is the latest example with their Q3 earnings report this morning...
(2/8) Remember, people tend to demand consumer staples at a relatively constant level, regardless of price.
The “staple” characteristic in an inflationary environment allows these companies to grow revenue and earnings, even with flat volumes.
(3/8) A few notes from the Pepsi Q3 earnings release: beat on top (revenue) and bottom line (profit), grew EPS (earnings per share) 14% (includes currency headwind)…
(4/8) …raised full year guidance for organic revenue growth (excludes M&A, which staples companies do a lot of) to 12% (from 10% previously).
(5/8) The strong organic revenue growth was broad-based with North America and international markets each delivering 16% growth for the quarter.
(6/8) By product type, both snacks (+20%) and beverages (+12%) delivered double-digit growth – a sequential acceleration for each segment.
Personally, we love snacks.
(7/8) Gross margin contracted by 20bps due to continued inflationary pressures.
Price/cost dynamics take time to normalize. Meaning the price a company sells a product for often takes time to catch up to the price they paid to make it.
(8/8) At this point in the earnings season, we are always looking for read throughs to related businesses that report later on – and this is certainly a positive read through on expectations for the broad non-alcoholic beverage sector.
$KO $NESN $MNST etc.
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(1/16) Applied Materials $AMAT, a leading provider of #semiconductor equipment, became the latest company in the #chip space to warn of weakening trends (also ~$400mm impact from #Chinese#export regulations).
(2/16) The semiconductor space has seen a ton of volatility this year, but sector fundamentals and share prices are entirely following the playbook of the last several decades. Let’s take a quick look…
(3/16) The industry continues to be deeply cyclical (despite playing into secular trends like #computing / processing power – meaning the long term trend is bumpy, but higher) with y/y growth rates rising much more than end-demand for products, as well as falling more steeply.
(1/12) Understanding mega cap companies helps us understand the broader #market because they have such an outsized impact on the indices people track and invest in. Yesterday we talked about big / ad #tech ( $GOOG $META) and today we are talking #retail.
(2/12) People forget that Walmart $WMT and Amazon $AMZN are the largest companies in the world by sales...
Heck, the US has a massive per capita #GDP thanks in large part to the #consumer / American's buying a lot of stuff.
(3/12) So lets take a look at the state of retail from the top down (macro / economy level) and then from the bottom up (micro / company level)…
We are bottoms up investors, but pay close attention to the macro as an overlay (and just out of interest!).
(1/14) Let’s talk big / ad tech headed into Q3 #earnings season…
Companies like Facebook & Google are important for any investor to understand because they make up such a large % of the indices which people refer to as "the market" (think S&P 500).
(2/14) On Facebook $META - sentiment is relatively mixed but leaning negative (see share performance). There appears to be a turnover in the shareholder base as the stock moves from growth to value.
(3/14) EV/EBITDA (common valuation multiple – higher multiple implies investors ascribe more value to a given earnings stream for reasons like future growth potential or greater predictability) is now 5.8x down ~42% from 8.6x in December 2021 and ~43% below Pre-Covid.