Thread by @dmoses34

1/ A few market thoughts and updated thoughts on $TSLA from a behavioral finance POV; #BOE #BOJ interventions are proving to be short-lived as the British 10yr Gilt (yields higher) and the $JPY (weaker) have both breached levels where intervention was announced/executed

2/ faith in Global Central Banks continues to wane as investors begin to underwrite these Banks as credits rather than limitless piggy banks; this "looking under the hood" leads me to one of my favorite topics, $TSLA, which has really never traded on fundamentals..but first

3/ in 2000, I remember watching the stocks of the tech bubble's greatest hits ( $JDSU Lucent, Nortel etc) no longer reacting to the same type of news that kept driving these stocks higher: "contract wins" "new product launches" "accretive acquisitions" etc.; it was a sign that

4/ FOMO was being replaced by fundamental (rational) analysis; the "easy" money had been made in these stocks & there were no incremental buyers to sustain the elevated stock prices; as these stocks started to fall the questions began to shift from "multiples of revenue" & "TAM"

5/ to "valuation" (both on an absolute/relative basis) "balance sheets" "corporate governance" "growth rates" etc.; remember, the #FED was raising rates during the 1999-2000 time period (not a coincidence);this leads back to the King of the #memestocks, $TSLA; even with the $TWTR

6/ noise (overhang) you would have expected $TSLA to trade higher on:"S&P upgrade of debt" "Tesla to deliver Pepsi it's first EV Semi" "Model S & Model X getting tax exemptions in China"; while I would never buy/cover $TSLA on that news, it wasn't too long ago that others would

7/ there have been overhangs in the past on $TSLA: pending regulatory decisions from the #SEC regarding the infamous $420 funding secured, court decisions regarding $SCTY acquisition, litigation related to whistleblowers, ongoing review by agencies into FSD & safety concerns but

8/ those for the most part were/continue to be ignored by the bulls..until now;sure, the pending Delaware court decision that may force Musk to follow through on the $TWTR acquisition is a legitimate overhang & distraction that may force him to sell more stock, but six months ago

9/ it wouldn't have mattered (he announced the bid 6 months ago) to the $TSLA stock price; it was a great excuse for Musk to sell stock under the guise of securing capital for the deal and remember last year when he used the "tax bill" excuse he was able to unload shares as well

10/ I never imagined the stock would reach the levels it did ($1 Trillion mkt cap??) when I began trading/watching the stock years ago (so yes I was early & wrong on timing);I relied too much on regulators to do the right thing & underestimated Elon's "brand" & cult following but

11/ now here we are, still north of a $650 Billion mkt cap; deliveries missing expectations, inflation/higher rates starting to hurt the consumer, energy rationing in Germany but most importantly, Elon's "brand", which I believe accounts for most of the mkt cap is degrading

12/ Musk's foray into global political issues (I'll choose @ianbremmer) and willingness to do/say anything reeks of desperation & self-preservation & it seems his antics are starting to catch up with him (& the stock price); the banks which have lent Musk $ against his stock may

13/ start to make noise as banking fees diminish & cost to finance $TWTR begin to outweigh the benefit of kowtowing to Musk; $TSLA bulls now asking for stock buybacks & pleading for #FED to stop raising rates says it all; their biggest fear is that it will trade on fundamentals