Thread by @CasMudde

#Sweden was never special. It was just a few decades behind the European curve. Radical right #SwedenDemocrats will support right-wing coalition, which already adopted many of its frames and issues. A few quick thoughts. 🧵
theguardian.com/world/2022/oct…

1. Support for a minority government does not necessarily lead to full participation or long-term mainstreaming. DF in Denmark never entered government formally, while PVV because ostracized after support for Rutte 1.

2. Influence of radical right is often more before than during coalition. Point is not just whether coalition agreement reflects current Moderates more than current SD. Current M reflects previous SD!

3. Radical right parties often betray their welfare (chauvinist) politics for government participation, paying for their preferred nativist policies with support for neoliberal agenda of right-wing partner(s). Sweden no exception.

4. As @SLdeLange showed already many years ago, for most radical right parties socio-economic policies are currency to trade for nativist socio-cultural policies.

5. The current SD leadership has been playing the long game for a very long time. They are patient, used to stigmatization. Question is, can they deal with mainstreaming and normalization?

6. The coalition has a razor-thin majority, which means everyone has to stay onboard. SD is untested as “government party” but real Achilles heel could be Liberals.

7. Unlike two other mainstream right parties, which have fully embraced radical right at elite and mass level, Liberals are internally divided over collaboration with SD and could face pushback over too nativist policies or possible SD scandals.

8. The most important party now are the Social Democrats. As leader of opposition, they have to choose: fight coalition on its turf or push through own agenda?

9. First signs are bad. Looks like S wants to move (further) right to “win back” SD voters. But “Danish model” only works if you are truly nativist, like Danish “Social Democrats”. Doubtful S can sell (and be) that.

10. Sweden will not become Hungary. Not even Italy or, necessarily, Denmark. Much depends on Social Democrats though and on liberal pressure on Liberals. Much at stake. #TheEnd