Aura Sabadus Profile picture
Oct 20 9 tweets 3 min read
A thread on the #Romanian electricity/gas markets, which are becoming an increasing concern for the region : /1
The Romanian gov adopted a 98% tax on electricity/gas trading and a 100% on electricity exports which are due on 25 October. If not scrapped, they would wipe out wholesale trading and endanger security of supply, as suggested by GEN-I in this interview /2
As a result of the tax new regime announced in September, trading on the BRM and OPCOM exchanges has stopped.
EFET has warned of the tax's catastrophic consequences, not just for Romania but for the region as there may not be any regional trading, right now ahead of winter /3
Romanian gas TSO, @Transgaz2 , on the other hand, is under pressure to align its methane content with that of other neighbouring countries along the TBP. Greece , Bulgaria are at 70-75%, Romania is at 85%./4
European stakeholders are also concerned Transgaz fails to participate in meetings required to align regional gas markets. Even when they participate, their contributions are minimal. I invited Transgaz to comment but was told my questions had received a ‘registration number’/5
Transgaz along with four regional gas TSOs have proposed an alternative transit route for supplies. Apart from the fact that such a proposal may be costly as it may require additional investments, it isolates #Moldova and 'Ukraine. What game is Transgaz playing regionally?/6
Yesterday, (19.10.2022) the government extended the mandate of five senior members of the regulator, @ANRE, including that of the president and VP. Under legal arrangements, the mandates had come to an end and should not have been extended./7
The government says the extension was necessary to ensure Romania can cope with the energy crisis but the measure raises questions about the legality of the senior members and the independence of the regulator, ANRE. /8
Also, on 19 October, the government resurrected an old project for an LNG terminal importing Azeri gas into Romania. Why is Romania looking to import Azeri gas rather than develop its own onshore and offshore reserves? /END

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More from @ASabadus

Sep 2
Energy companies are braced for the collapse of the #Romanian electricity and gas markets and a supply blackout after the government introduced a series of punishing taxes./1
As of 1 September, electricity and gas traders will have to pay a 98% tax on net revenues. The tax is in place for a year and will have to be paid both by resident and non-resident companies./2
For producers, the government has set a reference price of RON450.00/MWh (€93.00/MWh). If producers have a profit above that level, it will be taxed 100%./3
Read 9 tweets
Aug 22
I had the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Timm Kehler, chairman of Germany's Zukunft Gas, the industry's lobby group.
A few takeaways from this very important discussion:
1. #Germany may be days away from reaching a gas price level where trading may not be sustainable anymore, prompting the government to raise the alert level to emergency, which, in turn, would lead to gas rationing.
2. Gas rationing may happen in the next six-eight weeks but the government and regulator are yet to publish a merit order that will clearly identify who will be the first in line to get the curtailment order.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 13
I never cease to wonder how some European think-tankers are always more inclined to write Turkey off as an energy partner than to make an effort to find joint interests, particularly now when ever single opportunity that shifts markets away from Russian gas is important/1
In this report, #Germany’s @SWPBerlin insists energy cooperation based on fossil fuels, especially natural gas, was not in the interest of Europe and Turkey. 2 swp-berlin.org/publications/p…
The author insists that although Turkey is in close vicinity to large fossil fuel producers – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Kurdish Region of Iraq, East Med – there is no prospect for large supplies to reach European markets via Turkey/3
Read 15 tweets
Apr 26
#Bulgaria and #Poland confirmed the suspension of #Russian gas supplies from 27.04.2022 after the countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles.
Here is the immediate and slightly longer-term supply outlook for both as well as the region. /1
Poland:
Russian Yamal contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.

The 10bcm/year Baltic Pipeline supplying NO gas to PL to be commissioned 1 Oct 2022.

Swinoujscie terminal cap to rise from 5bcm/y (2022) ->8.3bcm in 2024.

2 LNG cargoes to arrive 28/30.04 /2
Bulgaria:
Russian LTC contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.

Interconnector GR-BG (IGB) to be commissioned second half of 2022.

Immediate likely supplies from AGSC 1bcm/year deal, Chiren UGS, Greece LNG and RO-BG link.

1LNG Egypt cargo due in GR. 1.05 /3
Read 4 tweets
Feb 11
Before wrapping up for the weekend, a small tribute to Patrick Leigh Fermor, perhaps the greatest travel writer of all times, who would have had his birthday today. (1)
All his books are superb, his knowledge of history and elegant use of the English language are simply breathtaking but I never cease to be bewitched by his description of Ada Kaleh, a a fairy tale-like island in the middle of the Danube (2).
Ada Kaleh had been inhabited by the descendants of Sultan Bayazid I’s soldiers, lingering on as a forgotten corner of the Ottoman world until 1970s when it was submerged by Romania’s communist regime to build a large hydro dam. Another magic place destroyed by communism. (3)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
#Turkish gas demand has been falling from Jan's 287mcm/d record but is still controlled by a curtailment order to gas plants. It appears #BOTAS is off-taking around 5mcm/day of spot Azeri gas on top of usual Azeri DCQ of ~17mcm/d (TANAP) and (I think) 7mcm/d (Turkgozu).(1)
#Turkish branch of #SOCAR may also be off-taking 4mcm/day (according to EPDK capacity bookings for Feb). #Russian off-takes at TS1 around 42mcm/d (this includes BOTAS/some independents). (2) Image
#BOTAS your willingness to publish gas storage data would be greatly appreciated by the market and yours truly. Thank you in advance (3)
Read 4 tweets

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