Having $30T of #debt (us gov) means each 1% increase ultimately adds $300b to the yearly interest expense. So ~3.3% rise in rates adds $1T of interest. US Gov already runs >$1T and when they trigger another recession it will be $2T in a hurry as #tax revenue falls
#Powell and the #fomc are bullshit boogeymen to people that understand the reality of the situation. They will print and print and print, because they must. Trillions of new dollars flooding into the real economy each year. The fomc will continue to grow its balance sheet
Ignore the noise and short term vol when these guys speak. Empty words. They are in a box and we all know what they will do to avoid bank failures and cascading debt defaults. They are cruelly shaking the tree and punishing the most vulnerable amongst us.
Get long #commodity stocks because we have absolutely need #resources to drive the real #economy

A decade of underinvestment will continue to cause shortages and price rises. Raising interest rates only makes the problem worse.
There is only one solution. Higher prices. And for many commodities, much higher prices. That alone will encourage investment and a supply response. Don’t let these crooks sucker you.

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More from @BambroughKevin

Nov 4
One thing I’m sure of is the FOMC will bankrupt $JPM before me.

Keeping your gold and silver stocks and enjoy the divs in the meantime. The capital gains to come will be well worth the wait. 10-20x stuff takes years.

Just don’t let them scare you out of your holdings.
Unless they want to see dumpster diving rise to become the the new western world top sport followed by a extreme leftist revolution…they will print.

Always remember the people in charge need the printing and benefit from it. Ignore what they say…
The market will reflect back on Powell’s remarks as being a massive contrary indicator. They got a hike or two left in them at most and they will be smaller.. 5% will completely unwind the financial system.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 1
@Gonzaloid1 @Grainjones @Big_U_Dawg @JekyllCapital I’ve been over this a pile of times. They have little to no upside to the price of uranium. Their costs will explode. They have country/supply risk in Kazakhstan. They have mining risk in sask. They underestimate inflation and they keep selling contracts like crazy
@Gonzaloid1 @Grainjones @Big_U_Dawg @JekyllCapital Seems to be like they think they can control the market price and want to have market share more than profit (just like last cycle when they left billions on the table). They don’t want to see the price spike and beforced to buy in the market and burn cash…
@Gonzaloid1 @Grainjones @Big_U_Dawg @JekyllCapital It’s like watching a really shitty trader dig themselves into a bigger hole on a losing trade. I’ve seen it plenty of times over my investment career. They started with a bad premise and a shitty model. False belief in a 2% inflation world and a slow to no growth nuclear world
Read 6 tweets
Oct 31
One huge macro driver for higher sustained #inflation and much higher #commodity prices is that prices will surely have to rise to make it profitable for both Europe and North America to actually return to mining and general self sufficiency.
Emerging market / 3rd world commodity (mining) production accounts of a huge percentages of production of many key minerals. Add in China and Russia’s production and then look at who’s producing and who’s consuming and you’ll see that change is surely coming
Key countries like Chile, Brazil, Peru in South America as well as many parts of the African continent have their mining work suffering greatly from inflation. The worlds mining giants have taken advantage of low cost workers and weak environmental standards for many decades
Read 19 tweets
Oct 28
I don’t know why people are so worried about @elonmusk buying twitter, there’s a block feature that I seriously doubt will ever be removed. There’s also the ability to post and only have followers see or be able to reply. It’s will be easy to filter as you want. So don’t cry…
I’ve personally been censored by twitter twice and received 12 hour punishments. Found it ridiculous. Last one was cause I commented that someone who was complaining ‘my world, is being destroyed…’. All I said was that it’s not there world, and given their age…
They won’t even be around for very long. (Given the fact the world is billions of years in the making, even a full life is an irrelevant time). The suck obviously complained and some twitter censor sided with them… apparently
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28
People be talk’n about what’s priced in… pivot, recession. Etc.

Whats not at all priced in is the likely run away inflation that will be coming (perhaps borderline hyperinflation)
The worlds goverments will find their deficits and repay their debts via new money creation (electron printing press). Trillions upon trillions (usd equivalent) of new money will continue to be created each year.
All this new money will be looking for a home. Tangible assets will continue to rise in price and this will make bond ownership less and less desired. Central banks will be engaging in yield curve management to support all types of bonds. The result will be serious inflation
Read 6 tweets
Oct 25
Over the years I’ve chatted with many retired pro-athletes and discovered there’s actually many similarities to retiring from a life of stock trading / hedgefund management. @chrispronger thread below will sound familiar to many that got highs/adrenaline from early success
Trying to find purpose is tough for everyone…especially in these trying times. For some of us, we really struggle emotionally when we no longer find ourselves on a team. We are pack animals and I think depression can creep up on anyone. No matter how much wealth or past success
In someways these types are lucky because the wealth and status attract people so you don’t have to be alone. But on the other hand, few want to hear that your depressed. Even fewer want to try to help because most feel you have no reason to be. And frankly sometimes it’s just…
Read 4 tweets

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