Thread by @TCPAHealth

🧵#REALChallenge lecture just starting... @JenniferTHF introducing Andy Haldane...

Andy Haldane: 'I'll talk about ways in which both #health and #economy can be improved... Using the metaphor of 'society's immune system'....'

'When global crises come, how is it that the UK always seems to cop it really badly? It could be bad luck... Or, it could reflect bad management at the policy level... across a whole range of systems: financial, economic and health.'

'A failure to invest in these systems has led to a failure to grow. And sitting beneath it is a weak and weakening societal immune system.'

'One conception of wider society is a complex set of subsystems... It is in their nature that they are only as strong as the strongest subsystem... So as the resilience of the capitals that underpin our economic, financial and health systems, we've seen structural subsidance.'

'Health can be conceived of as an asset, a captial, that needs continuous replenishing and investment..' #REALChallenge...

'#Health, at best, plays only a bit-part in the standard models of what it is that drives the #economy. But if you look at history, it's clear that health has been front and centre of what drives the economy.'

'Economic growth comes down to two things: growth in labour force activity; or labour force productivity. Since the industrial revolution the workforce has expanded massively, contributing to economic growth' #REALChallenge

Andy Haldane now looking at the huge increases in life expectancy since 1750. Health, drives longevity, drives #productivity...

'The 18th, 19th, 20th had economics and health rising in lock-step, but the 21st century has shown Healthy Life Expectancy starting to fall for the first time in 200 years.'

'Reported incidents of long-term sickness have increased by a staggering amount... and in particular, there has been a rise of 50% of long-term sickness among 16-24 year olds..'

'What is driving this - evidence shows it's a rise in poor #mental health, which will have led to rising levels of economic inactivity among this young population.' #REALChallenge

'Before COVID, this was balanced by a rise in economic activity among the older workforce. Since 2008, productivity has flatlined... increased productivity came mostly from having more older workers... until recently.'

'But since COVID, that trend has gone into reverse. The older workers who were driving the economic engine for the last 15 years have been dropping out of the workforce.' #REALChallenge

Andy Haldane: 'Evidence points to the single most important reason for older workers dropping out of the workforce being ill health.' #REALChallenge

'This isn't the long-Covid effect. There's been a long-standing, deep seated rise in ill-health and Covid was the tipping point. What does this mean for the #economy?'

'This increased ill health is making a difficult economic situation far worse. We don't have enough workers. It will exentuate and elongate the cost of living crisis.' #REALChallenge

Andy Haldane: 'For the first time since the industrial revolution #health and #wellbeing are in retreat. Health is now a break on economic growth. That's why health matters... particularly given the multiple shocks we are experiencing.' #REALChallenge

Andy Haldane now talking about #health inequalities: 'In parts of the country people are living a third of their life in ill health.... And yet the UK invests less in health care than other countries. Waiting times are increasing. Our health system is fragile.' #REALChallenge

'The seeds of ill health are sown early, so it's relevant that spending on children's services have been cut, and the cuts have been largest in the most deprived parts of the UK. UK levels of child poverty high by international standards.' #REALChallenge

Andy Haldane: So that's the problem. What could the solutions be? 'The first - rather dry - thing is measurement, new national accounts for the wealth, health and happiness of nations. We give lots of focus to wealth, but far less to health and happiness. That needs to change.'

Food standards: 'We should implement the recommendations set out in the Henry Dimbleby report, we've fallen far short of this'.

Education and health: 'A nurse in every school'.

Business and health: 'Add health to ESG. Health of customers, clients and communities.'

Andy Haldane #REALChallenge

Fiscal / finances: 'Govt divides spend into capital and revenue. But this doesn't make sense if health is an endowment. Current fiscal distinctions don't help.'

Social safety net: 'Needs re-thinking'.

Conclusion: '#Health has always mattered to the economy, but never more than now. The trend of increasing poor health is making our #economy precarious and reducing its ability to resist future shocks.' #REALChallenge

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