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Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
@I_Katchanovski
Nov 9, 2022 • 32 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
Zelensky's decision to negotiate peace deal depends on Biden's position because #Ukraine is US client state since US-backed violent overthrow of Ukrainian government in 2014. #Zelensky dropped peace deal in April after UK PM told him on behalf of US. But some believe fairy tales.
More signs that US government now pushes #Zelensky for peace deal & admits that #Ukraine can't win war with #Russia, as I suggested: "Some U.S. and Western officials think neither side can win and see winter as a shot at diplomacy in Ukraine-Russia war" 1/ nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
"Some U.S. and Western officials increasingly believe that neither side can achieve all of their goals in the Ukraine war and are eyeing the expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine, say officials." #ukrainewar 2/
Quelle surprise: "Western defense officials question Ukraine’s ability to remove Russian troops completely from occupied areas, and that... neither side is likely to achieve its goal of controlling the whole country." 3/
"Ukrainian official said that during his meetings with Zelenskyy’s government, Sullivan raised the need for a diplomatic resolution to the war and made the point that Ukraine’s leverage would be strengthened if it expressed openness to ultimately negotiating with the Russians"4/
"The U.S. and its allies do not want to be seen as pushing Ukraine into diplomacy, especially if that involves a formal arrangement that Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine become Russian territory, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. U.S." 5/
Now senior US officials suggest both points that I suggested, based on my research, since start of war: peace deal to end #UkraineRussiaWar & Ukraine can't win this war. But many self-proclaimed experts & info warriors dismissed peace deal & believed that #Ukraine can win war. 6/
My academic study of #UkraineRussiaWar analyzed both potential peace deal & that odds are heavily against #Ukraine winning this war. I presented my study at Annual Meeting of American Political Science Association. #UkraineRussianWar #Russia #ukrainewar 7/ researchgate.net/publication/36…
Russian forces withdrawal from annexed right-bank of #KhersonRegion in South #Ukraine might be possible sign of peace deal that US reportedly told #Zelenskyy to negotiate after taking back #Kherson city 8/
Italian @repubblica reports that US government after confidential talks between Washington & Brussels told #Zelenskyy to negotiate ceasefire with #Russia after taking back #Kherson city. 9/ #Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #Ukrainewar #UkraineRussiaWar
Top US General: "Milley added that for any talks to be successful, both Russia and Ukraine would have to reach a "mutual recognition" that a wartime victory "is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means.""10 bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Now Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff openly pushes for peace deal to end #UkraineRussianWar & says that #Ukraine can't win this war, as I said. "He also said that signs Kyiv was willing to re-enter talks with Moscow offered "a window" for negotiations." 11/ #Russia️
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590471…
"Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist.
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case that the Ukrainians should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table." #UkraineRussiaWar️ nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/…
"General Milley’s judgment is not shared by Mr. Biden or Mr. Sullivan, the officials said. Mr. Putin has shown no willingness to negotiate, they said, and the Ukrainians have been emboldened by their success on the battlefield." #Ukraine #UkraineWar nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/…
"Biden admin divided over path ahead for Ukraine as top US general Milley pushes for diplomacy" cnn.com/2022/11/11/pol…
More signs: "Senior U.S. officials have begun nudging Kyiv to start thinking about peace talks in the event winter stalls its momentum, following Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson in one of its most stunning triumphs of the war." #UkraineRussiaWar #Russia wsj.com/articles/as-uk…
"onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point."
"Washington signaled to Ukraine that Kyiv should at least appear open to a negotiated solution. Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan relayed the message to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his deputies in Kyiv on Nov. 4." #UkraineRussiaWar #Russia
As I said, there is 0 chance of taking back Crimea: "Two European diplomats briefed on the discussions said Sullivan recommended that Zelenskiy's team start thinking about their realistic demands for negotiations, including revisiting Ukraine's stated goal of returning Crimea."
"The prospect that Ukraine won’t make major battlefield gains in the weeks ahead has led the U.S. and some European officials to ask when public pressure will emerge to demand a settlement."
"U.S. and some of its allies are concerned that their stockpiles of weaponry, including some ammunition, are being depleted at an unsustainable rate.“We are seeing real, practical problems of making military progress, we are seeing shortages of munitions,” said Western official"
"Administration officials, including Mr. Sullivan, continue to state in public that Washington won’t press Kyiv on a diplomatic course, a practice that is perplexing the U.S.’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. "
"The same day that Gen. Milley spoke of an opportunity for talks, President Biden too suggested the time could soon be right. “It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” Mr. Biden said...”
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590471…
"Specifically, senior U.S. officials are telling their counterparts in Ukraine that the expected winter fighting pause doesn’t mean talks should happen imminently." politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
"But the comments echoed a broad sense inside the Defense Department that the coming winter provides a chance to discuss reaching a political settlement to end the war. Senior military officials believe Ukraine will be challenged to expel Russian forces from all occupied areas.”
"...as is Kyiv’s stated end goal. That’s especially the case in the Crimean peninsula, which has been held by Russia since 2014. “Why not start talking about [peace talks] before you throw another 100,000 lives into the abyss?” the second U.S. official said."
“What White House officials are willing to say publicly and what they think privately are not necessarily the same,” said a fourth U.S. official. “Milley is much more willing to just say what he thinks. I’m sure they sometimes wish he wouldn’t always say the quiet part out loud.”

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More from @I_Katchanovski

Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Jun 10
Wow! Declassified text of Ukrainian court verdict in March 2025 confirms false flag shooting of Maidan activists in Khmelnytsky by far-right Maidan activists during Maidan massacre & confirms my study findings. Expert examination of videos, forensic ballistic and medical examinations, on-site investigative experiments, and witness testimonies & investigations by SBU & Ukrainian military prosecutor showed that gunshots made from SBU veranda, which was occupied by Maidan activists, killed elderly female Maidan protester & wounded 4 others. Verdict acquitted ex-head of Khmelnytskyi SBU & SBU Alfa officer for shooting of these Maidan activists because of lack of evidence and because of such evidence of false flag shooting.

The verdict cites various eyewitnesses who testified that several Maidan activists broke into veranda (extension) of SBU building, that gunshots at Maidan activists came from this veranda when it was occupied by "radical" Maidan activists & that accused SBU officers did not make these gunshots.

The verdict states that investigation after it was transferred to the same special department of Prosecutor General Office that investigated Maidan massacre "was not conducted fully and comprehensively, and was also obviously biased" and "committed a number of significant violations of the requirements of the Criminal Code, as well as the Criminal Procedure Code of Ukraine, which entailed the recognition of evidence as inadmissible."

Relevant parts of verdict: (automatic translation):
- Security Service of Ukraine "commission, based on the results of an official investigation involving specialists in firearms and tactical and special training of the CSO "A" of the SBU, concluded that "the burst of shots from automatic weapons that rang out on February 19, 2014 at 12:36 p.m. and as a result of which some civilians who were near the administrative building were injured, was fired from the vestibule of the central entrance of the Department, where at that time unidentified individuals from among the aggressive protesters were located";

- expert's conclusion based on the results of the ballistic examination of weapon traces, gunshot traces and situational circumstances of the shot under No. 5935/5936/16-33 dated 01.07.2016, from which it follows that: 1. According to the results of the investigative experiment dated 12.04.2016, 18.03.2016 and 25.02.2016, it can be concluded that under the known circumstances and materials of the criminal proceedings, it was not possible to fire shots into the lower right static sash of the glass extension to the central entrance to the department, nor from the second floor of the administrative building, nor from the steps between the first and second floors of the Department. 2. The shots were fired from the middle of the glass extension of the central entrance of the Department of the Security Service of Ukraine in Khmelnytskyi region, outside. 3. The shots were fired from inside the glass extension of the central entrance of the Security Service of Ukraine in Khmelnytskyi region, to the outside; the weapon, at the time of the shots, was behind the back of the victim PERSON_131, at the level (or below) of the belt;

- expert opinion based on the results of the forensic examination of the video recording dated 12.08.2016 No. 10358/10359/16-35, from which it follows that... according to their general and individual acoustic parameters, the experimental shots fired in the extension of the USBU administrative building in Khmelnytskyi region correspond to the shots of the second stage (out of eight shots) recorded in the studied video recordings;

- protocols of investigative experiments with the participation of PERSON_22 [accused SBU Alfa officer] as a witness dated 09.03.2016, conducted by the previous pre-trial investigation body, from which it follows that from the place where PERSON_22 was on the 2nd floor, it was not possible to fire shots at the lower part of the door of the central entrance of the office covered by an anti-vandal roller shutter.

Under such circumstances, the court finds the information from the aforementioned investigative experiments and expert conclusions not refuted.

On the morning of February 19, 2014, Colonel PERSON_21 was informed by the head of the USBU in the Ternopil region, Colonel PERSON_141, about the movement to the city of Khmelnytskyi of a group of radical individuals numbering about 80 people, whose goal was to organize the seizure of the USBU building in the Khmelnytskyi region and gain access to the storage areas of weapons and ammunition.

This information was confirmed by the ZND department of the USBU, in addition, it was established that in the courtyards of residential buildings located near the administrative building of the Department, radical individuals who arrived from the western regions of Ukraine were preparing for future active actions, in particular, filling glass bottles with an incendiary mixture.

Taking into account the available information, the leadership of the USBU concluded that radically minded protesters were preparing to implement a planned scenario of seizing the building of the Department, as happened on February 18, 2014 in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions.

Under such circumstances, the defense's claim, with reference to the evidence presented, regarding the possibility of causing bodily harm to the victim on February 19, 2014, at 12:36 p.m., near the USBU in Khmelnytskyi region by third parties is not excluded, which in turn makes it impossible for the court to make a decision beyond reasonable doubt on the involvement and guilt of PERSON_22 in the charges brought.

Taking into account the above, the court comes to the firm conviction that the conclusions of the pre-trial investigation body on the guilt of PERSON_21 [Khmelnytsky SBU head] and PERSON_22 [SBU Alfa officer] in the presented accusation were based mainly on assumptions not confirmed properly by admissible, reliable and sufficient evidence. Not only the involvement of the accused in the commission of the criminal offenses with which they are incriminated, that is, the causal connection between the actions of the accused and the consequences in the form of causing bodily harm to the victim, but also the generally unlawful nature of the actions of the accused remained unproven."

reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/1265432…
Just declassified Ukrainian court verdict confirms findings of my "Maidan Massacre in Ukraine" open access book & other academic studies of false flag massacre of Maidan protesters with far-right involvement link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…

"An investigation by the Military Prosecutor Office in Lviv found that an elderly female Maidan protester was killed and several other Maidan protesters were wounded in Khmelnytskyi on February 19, 2014, by another Maidan activist from the SBU porch that was then occupied by Maidan protesters. Forensic ballistic examinations showed such bullet trajectories. However, the GPU reversed this investigation as politically inappropriate and charged an SBU Alfa officer for shooting the protesters from the second floor inside of the SBU building. But the Security Service of Ukraine publicly stated that the GPU investigation was falsified. This is consistent with the content analysis showing that the protesters were shot from the SBU porch and not from the second floor (see Video, 2023)."
In spite of court verdict & investigations by SBU & military prosecutor in Ukraine confirming my study findings of false flag shooting of Maidan protesters, there was no investigation & prosecution of actual shooters. This is cover-up of far-right Maidan activists involved in deadly shooting.
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Mar 17
Admission by former British prime minister Boris Johnson that "Ukrainian nationalists couldn't accept the compromise" and vetoed in 2019 peace that Zelensky promised during his elections refers to neo-Nazi Azov movement, whom Johnson called "heroes."
Read 5 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Mar 10
Wow! USAID-funded London-based Ukrainian OSINT agency still lists Elon Musk, JD Vance, Tucker Carlson & many other prominent Western politicians, journalists & scholars in its "register of Russian Federation terrorist regime foreign propagandists." molfar.com/en/enemies x.com/wyattreed13/st…Image
US Senator @RandPaul is also blacklisted by USAID-funded London-based Ukrainian OSINT agency in its "register of Russian Federation terrorist regime foreign propagandists." molfar.com/en/enemiesImage
And
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Mar 5
Overwhelming evidence presented in my studies shows that Yanukovych was ousted not by mass protests but by means of false-flag massacre by protesters & police, assassination attempts & falsified unconstitutional vote in parliament under duress & without required constitutional majority,
Such overwhelming evidence is presented in my 3 open access peer-reviewed journal articles & my open access book "The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine: The Mass Killing that Changed the World." They are freely available to read & download. link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…
And in my open access article "The Maidan Massacre Trial and Investigation Revelations: Implications for the Ukraine-Russia War and Relations," This peer-reviewed journal article is also freely available. brill.com/view/journals/…
Read 4 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Feb 28
Open scolding of Zelensky & his refusal of peace deal by Trump and Vance.
And
More of the Zelensky's epic disaster
Read 10 tweets
Ivan Katchanovski Profile picture
Feb 23
Wow! As I predicted, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff says that Spring 2022 Istanbul agreement, which was "very close to signing," can be "guidepost" of peace deal to end war in Ukraine. Istanbul peace deal included no NATO accession/neutrality & disarmament of Ukraine. Annexation of Donbas & Kherson & Zaporizhzia regions by Russia are also likely to be part of new peace deal. So many lives of Ukrainians could have been saved if US & UK did not block this peace deal in Spring 2022 & Zelensky signed it.
Nuland basically admitted that Ukraine-Russia peace deal, which was close to being finalized in spring 2022, “fell apart” because US, UK & other Western governments “advised” Zelensky government not to sign it.
Ex Israeli prime minister said that US and other Western leaders blocked Ukraine & Russia peace deal which he negotiated on Zelensky request in March 2022 because they wanted to continue to strike Putin. He said that there was good chance of such deal.
Community note is fake.
Read 7 tweets

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