Zelensky's decision to negotiate peace deal depends on Biden's position because #Ukraine is US client state since US-backed violent overthrow of Ukrainian government in 2014. #Zelensky dropped peace deal in April after UK PM told him on behalf of US. But some believe fairy tales.
https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1590459351957114880
More signs that US government now pushes #Zelensky for peace deal & admits that #Ukraine can't win war with #Russia, as I suggested: "Some U.S. and Western officials think neither side can win and see winter as a shot at diplomacy in Ukraine-Russia war" 1/ nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
"Some U.S. and Western officials increasingly believe that neither side can achieve all of their goals in the Ukraine war and are eyeing the expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine, say officials." #ukrainewar 2/
Quelle surprise: "Western defense officials question Ukraine’s ability to remove Russian troops completely from occupied areas, and that... neither side is likely to achieve its goal of controlling the whole country." 3/
"Ukrainian official said that during his meetings with Zelenskyy’s government, Sullivan raised the need for a diplomatic resolution to the war and made the point that Ukraine’s leverage would be strengthened if it expressed openness to ultimately negotiating with the Russians"4/
"The U.S. and its allies do not want to be seen as pushing Ukraine into diplomacy, especially if that involves a formal arrangement that Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine become Russian territory, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. U.S." 5/
Now senior US officials suggest both points that I suggested, based on my research, since start of war: peace deal to end #UkraineRussiaWar & Ukraine can't win this war. But many self-proclaimed experts & info warriors dismissed peace deal & believed that #Ukraine can win war. 6/
My academic study of #UkraineRussiaWar analyzed both potential peace deal & that odds are heavily against #Ukraine winning this war. I presented my study at Annual Meeting of American Political Science Association. #UkraineRussianWar #Russia #ukrainewar 7/ researchgate.net/publication/36…
Russian forces withdrawal from annexed right-bank of #KhersonRegion in South #Ukraine might be possible sign of peace deal that US reportedly told #Zelenskyy to negotiate after taking back #Kherson city 8/
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1590364049090703360?s=20&t=ChumlRhYl6NdVYBPj3x04g
Italian @repubblica reports that US government after confidential talks between Washington & Brussels told #Zelenskyy to negotiate ceasefire with #Russia after taking back #Kherson city. 9/ #Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #Ukrainewar #UkraineRussiaWar
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1589621507239874562?s=20&t=6mwym5a0GQ5-aatGoiY-3g
Top US General: "Milley added that for any talks to be successful, both Russia and Ukraine would have to reach a "mutual recognition" that a wartime victory "is maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means.""10 bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Now Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff openly pushes for peace deal to end #UkraineRussianWar & says that #Ukraine can't win this war, as I said. "He also said that signs Kyiv was willing to re-enter talks with Moscow offered "a window" for negotiations." 11/ #Russia️
"Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist.
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case that the Ukrainians should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table." #UkraineRussiaWar️ nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/…
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has made the case that the Ukrainians should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table." #UkraineRussiaWar️ nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/…
"General Milley’s judgment is not shared by Mr. Biden or Mr. Sullivan, the officials said. Mr. Putin has shown no willingness to negotiate, they said, and the Ukrainians have been emboldened by their success on the battlefield." #Ukraine #UkraineWar nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/…
"Biden admin divided over path ahead for Ukraine as top US general Milley pushes for diplomacy" cnn.com/2022/11/11/pol…
More signs: "Senior U.S. officials have begun nudging Kyiv to start thinking about peace talks in the event winter stalls its momentum, following Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson in one of its most stunning triumphs of the war." #UkraineRussiaWar #Russia wsj.com/articles/as-uk…
"onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point."
"Washington signaled to Ukraine that Kyiv should at least appear open to a negotiated solution. Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan relayed the message to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his deputies in Kyiv on Nov. 4." #UkraineRussiaWar #Russia
As I said, there is 0 chance of taking back Crimea: "Two European diplomats briefed on the discussions said Sullivan recommended that Zelenskiy's team start thinking about their realistic demands for negotiations, including revisiting Ukraine's stated goal of returning Crimea."
"The prospect that Ukraine won’t make major battlefield gains in the weeks ahead has led the U.S. and some European officials to ask when public pressure will emerge to demand a settlement."
"U.S. and some of its allies are concerned that their stockpiles of weaponry, including some ammunition, are being depleted at an unsustainable rate.“We are seeing real, practical problems of making military progress, we are seeing shortages of munitions,” said Western official"
"Administration officials, including Mr. Sullivan, continue to state in public that Washington won’t press Kyiv on a diplomatic course, a practice that is perplexing the U.S.’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. "
"The same day that Gen. Milley spoke of an opportunity for talks, President Biden too suggested the time could soon be right. “It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” Mr. Biden said...”
"Specifically, senior U.S. officials are telling their counterparts in Ukraine that the expected winter fighting pause doesn’t mean talks should happen imminently." politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
"But the comments echoed a broad sense inside the Defense Department that the coming winter provides a chance to discuss reaching a political settlement to end the war. Senior military officials believe Ukraine will be challenged to expel Russian forces from all occupied areas.”
"...as is Kyiv’s stated end goal. That’s especially the case in the Crimean peninsula, which has been held by Russia since 2014. “Why not start talking about [peace talks] before you throw another 100,000 lives into the abyss?” the second U.S. official said."
“What White House officials are willing to say publicly and what they think privately are not necessarily the same,” said a fourth U.S. official. “Milley is much more willing to just say what he thinks. I’m sure they sometimes wish he wouldn’t always say the quiet part out loud.”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
