#Putin likely elevated Russian Army General Sergey #Surovikin and let him withdraw from western #Kherson on condition that he take the rest of #Donetsk Oblast using Russian forces recouped from western Kherson as well as newly-arriving mobilized servicemen.🧵
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1591967140596559872
2/ This observation offered by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, chairman of the Ukrainian Center of Defense Strategies, is the likeliest explanation for the resumption in the intensity of Russian offensive operations first around #Bakhmut and then to the southwest around the #Vuhledar area.
3/ Russia's recent offensive efforts in #Donetsk otherwise make little operational sense. They are far from operationally significant locations apart from #Bakhmut...
...and were launched during a difficult muddy time by inadequately prepared mobilized servicemen before Russian commanders in the area had amassed enough combat power for decisive operations.
#Surovikin likely ordered them to start when they did as an earnest sign of his commitment to #Putin.
4/ It was clear that the Russians would be unable to defend their lodgment in western #Kherson Oblast by the time #Surovikin took command of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine on October 8.
5/ #Surovikin signaled his intention to withdraw from western #Kherson almost immediately and likely began setting conditions to retreat within a couple of weeks.
6/ It is not clear whether #Putin authorized #Surovikin to abandon western #Kherson fully at that time or whether Surovikin had to continue working to persuade Putin of the hopelessness of any effort to hold on in western Kherson.
7/ However that may be, Russian Defense Minister Sergey #Shoigu met with #Surovikin on November 9 in a staged, public setting and ordered him to withdraw, which Surovikin promptly did. isw.pub/UkrWar111322
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