Very high % aim constantly on investments is biggest trap one can set him/herself for in markets. We have seen frenzy in #crypto and #smallcaps over past 1.5 year, which caused many of bagheld positions.

The higher your % aim is, the bigger the need to be close to market.

1.
Aiming small % in any speculative market is not as difficult, as % are ramped 10 fold, the difficulty increases massively and your chances of failure too.

Reason: Need for timing increases as well. To get high % movers the timing on cycle start/finish has to be excellent.

2.
Extracting 10 500% rallying tickers out of one strong cycle requires a great cycle timing skills, knowing when aprox the cycle really has started and how much longer can it aprox still have. Why beginners fail here? Because this takes (2-5) years of training to develop.

3.
Diversify. Many looking for large % gainers put it all into single asset. The math tells you to do it well the opposite should be done, VC style approach. In theory "knowing one company" sounds nice, but you dont know which ticker market will bid for real.

4.
Have said it before. Hunger and sloppiness are two uncompatible conditions in #trading. Aiming for high gains but not doing any careful research or having experience doesnt go hand in hand well. Sloppy and low-hunger appetite can work however to extent.

5.
The goals that you set for yourself or from market expectations have to be reflected trough your personal skills and experience. Beginners especially if young will not understand the importance of that which is okay, but not acceptable for others.

6.
Two types of #traders #investors mentalities:
-quick big gains mentality focused on monetary side:
Guaranteed extraction target

-slow low aim mentality focused on learning:
Testing ground.

7.
"Testing ground" type of individual wont be anywhere near guaranteed success, but at least he/she has chance to figure enough of the game out to have chance long term.

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More from @TradetheMatrix1

Nov 3
I'll repeat message (2022-24):
-liquidity and ranges will shrink in #smallcaps
-it will become more important to have good reads on tickers
-many traders will give up due to difficulty increase
Posted blog on that.
1. Diversify
2. Improve read skills (cycles, MMs)
3. Research...
It's not that there might be huge regression, it's just that many have built expectations strictly from 20/21 era. We might revisit more of 2017s markets but with much more liquidity which means different.
Let's lay out what will have now more weight than before:
Recession impact. We have limited data of smallcap markets ("modern non OTC markets") and performance in prolonged inflationary liquidity crunch conditions. Next year there will be drag. Don't underestimate difficulty increase potential, data is limited so we also don't know.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 30
Year and half later WSB "pumping" is nearly forgotten. Their superpower gone, why? Because there was none to begin with. Lush liquidity cycle combined with strong market makers is what created the movements in first place. I tried to explain it in 20/21 but most did not listen.
It was good learning experience for me because it showed just how few experienced guys in the game really understand the market making process on #smallcaps. Majority have fallen for it, those I had frequent convos with, 5 plus years in trading.
It also showed lack of understanding on coordinating pumps. It isn't as easy pumping 30 mil shares traded asset trough Discord group with 0 focus and planned action. 100 guys giving thumbs up doesn't equal to equal BP deployment in serious contribution. Yet many believed so.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 16
Tip from personal journey as ever learning #markets researcher:
Whoever you learn from make sure their opinions and theory is balanced against frequent directional calls on assets. "Nobody knows where markets are going is a must to avoid excuse".
#trading
There is huge amount of information selling in markets but low applicability and edge focus.
You can't know who has applicable knowledge unless their views are battle tested in markets. Hence opinions on asset directions are necessary. It cant just be all about info pushing.
Learning too long from those who hold 5 year long views and have only one asset in play and then after their views fail you wonder how did I get there? It's on you not them because you haven't explicitly made a goal to test their views trough higher frequency of exposure.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 13
Observation and good amount of open mindness are correlated needed skills to learn market behaviors (absorbing mode on).
Observing with close mind and strong opinion is just staring blank (absorbing mode off).
Too many go too early for option two in #trading.
Humility is what happens after big red day is done. One being angry or really going into humble place. Anger often means not fully accepting it as your responsibility. Finding humble place means reaching out to others for sharing or questions on wtf just happened.
Detachment from outcome. To gain good grip in any game best way to go about it is not being attached to outcomes too much early. Worst scenario is to spend time stressing early how can so much losses happen. You have entered arena unknowingly. You'll figure that out later.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 19
Using past behavior is key. But being adaptive is even more if current situation is much stronger or weaker relative to past examples of cycles.
As reminder, $BTC never went trough global crisis before, so all past bear markets could have been softer than current one.
This could lead to deeper and longer lasting bear cycle this time. The leverage in space makes it difficult to say how much deeper it could go in total, as we have seen with #oil in 2020 leveraged markets can even go negative as crazy as it sounds.
This is why using common sense rationale "oh but now is more user than ever" is soft argument because it underestimates just how much damage the fear can do. Fear can shake out user base as well if it is big enough and long lasting. Some markets in past have seen that.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 17
Most heavy damages to short only biased traders are done all within 2-3 week period of very strong cycle (as current one) without doing any adjustment.
If this isn't good enough reason to start defining cycle conditions and get more adaptive...
#smallcaps #trading
Many short sellers don't bother changing anything because they think this strange market won't last. And they are right. But it all depends, if trading very stubbornly or aggressive one such cycle can come rarely and still do so much damage that adjustment is a must.
If you think your drawdown is not acceptable then start forming plan on how to get better at recognizing cycles. Score tickers daily and be objective, get out of your "shorting trash" mindset, this is exactly what probably gets you I to trouble in first place. Objectivity.
Read 5 tweets

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