Doug Lewin Profile picture
Nov 15 14 tweets 9 min read
The @PUCTX continues to neglect some of the best solutions for the grid and customers—like energy efficiency and a backstop reliability service—in favor of (acc’g to their own consultant) an untested, complicated mechanism that’ll take 3-4 years to implement. 1/🧵 #txlege
The biggest problem: @PUCTX still has not clearly defined what problem they’re trying to solve. That should be obvious, right? We need to make sure there are never any prolonged outages during a winter storm.

You would think so, but you would be wrong.
#energytwitter 2/
.@PUCTX hired @ethree_inc to find a way forward to increase reliability.

But the $600,000 taxpayer funded study “does not include the extreme cold weather event caused by Winter Storm Uri… Such analysis is beyond the scope of this study.” Really? Wasn't that the point?
3/
It gets worse. @EnergyUT and @FERC and @NERC_Official all said a lack of gas supply was one of the biggest causes of the Uri outages. Apparently the PUCT didn’t believe them, and E3 didn’t consider it either because … (cont)
#txlege #txenergy 4/
“The availability of fuel for thermal resources is not considered in this analysis; all thermal resources are assumed to have unlimited access to fuel when needed.”

"Unlimited access to fuel when needed"?! Well wouldn’t that be great?!
#txlelge 5/
“The potential for fuel limitations is beyond the scope of this analysis,” @ethree_inc wrote.

So a prolonged extreme winter storm like Uri AND the potential for fuel limitations were both beyond their scope. Got it.

So what was in scope
#txenergy 6/
Did you guess bashing #renewables? Apparently a “subset of PUCT Commissioners” want to "exclude wind and solar" from certain payments.

This despite E3 noting that regardless of market structure, a high renewables future for ERCOT would yield $4 billion in savings. #txlege 7/ Image
This is a clear pattern from some state leaders: blame renewables. They did it over the summer and during/after the winter outages.

It’s counterproductive & dangerous. It's time to put the focus where it belongs: keeping the heat on in a winter storm.
#txenergy 8/
Some at the @PUCTX act like the problem is there's too much renewable energy instead of lack of fuel and operational thermal power plants during an epic winter storm.

They paid $600,000 in taxpayer money for a report for which Winter Storm Uri was “beyond the scope” (cont)
9/
...but finding ways to reduce compensation for renewables was very much in scope.

The @PUCTX has yet to hold a town hall or educational event or meaningfully engage the public. I'm pretty sure if they did, they'd be more focused on Uri-like storms. Instead, they're adrift. 10/
So 21 months after Winter Storm Uri, the PUCT is proposing a brand new “mechanism” to redesign the market even though they have done no modeling to see if that system would hold up in a Uri-like winter storm. Great. #txlege 11/
The PUC has better options: the Backstop Reliability Service, according to separate analyses done by E3 for @PUCTX and ICF for @TXConsumer, would be the quickest, most cost effective way to increase reliability.

But neither E3 nor the PUCT Chair recommended it. #txenergy 12/
The PUC and #txlege don’t need a complicated, never used before mechanism that would take 3-4 years to implement. Ramp up #energyefficiency. Implement the BRS.

And commission a study that actually models a severe winter storm to see if further changes are needed. #txenergy 13/
There's a lot more in the E3 report. I'll have another twitter thread on it (including more thoughts on the new "PCM") in advance of the Senate Business & Commerce hearing on the ERCOT market & grid reliability Thursday.
The report is here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/documen…
#txlege 14/End Image

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More from @douglewinenergy

Nov 17
Big day at #txlege today. Hearing in Senate B&C focused on fixing the grid, proposed ERCOT market changes and in Sen Natural Resources on economic development programs (incl. for energy) and implementation of a bill that bans state investment in sustainable investors #txlege 1/🧵
Here's the first part of the agenda in Senate B&C. Mostly usual suspects. None of the panels will have represention for residential consumers, community groups, renewable energy, battery storage, academia, etc. #txlege #txenergy Image
You can see the hearings here:

senate.texas.gov/av-live.php
Read 50 tweets
Nov 16
Following up on yesterday's thread, and before the Senate meets tomorrow morning, a few more details on the $600,000 study the @PUCTX paid for which did not model a Uri-like storm. That's not the only problem with the study... #Txlege #energytwitter 1/
Let's look at some additional problems beyond what I had in my thread yesterday.

There was an innovative proposal put forward last year called Dispatchable Energy Credits, or DECs. E3 completely botched the modeling of DECs... (cont.) 2/
#energytwitter #txenergy
...which was proposed as low heat rate gas or 2-hour batteries. They modeled it only including 48-hour resources and unsurprisingly found it to be very expensive. @TXConsumer analysis by ICF modeled it the way it's supposed to work & found it would lower costs by $8b over 4 years
Read 13 tweets
Oct 20
FERC & NERC released their winter reliability assessment & it's not good for Texas. In a Uri-like event we would be short "by about 19.7GW," almost as much as Feb. 2021. To the suprise of few, the ERCOT grid still has major problems.
#txlege #txenergy 1/
ferc.gov/media/report-2…
"For extreme winter conditions, such as occurred during Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT indicates the need to allow for a resource derate of 11.5GW. This would reduce available resources to 64.3 GW for an extreme winter condition, which is below the extreme winter peak load of 84 GW...
"...by about 19.7 GW. During extreme winter conditions, while ERCOT can gain 1.6 GW of benefit from operational mitigations, this still leaves a shortfall of up to 18.1 GW. These above-normal winter peak load and outage conditions could result in the need to employ EEAs...
Read 7 tweets
Oct 20
Two important meetings w/ implications for #txenergy this morning:

@FERC will be discussing its Winter Energy Market and Reliability Assessment at its meeting today.
#txlege #energytwitter 1/

ferc.gov/news-events/ne…
On the @PUCTX mtg agenda for 9:30 are distributed energy resources, transmission, market design, restoration of service after an outage, & the calendar for rulemakings for the remainder of the year.
Agenda & livestream below.
#txenergy 2/
adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/open_m…
Cmsr McAdams outlined some of the issues the Distributed Energy Resources task force is dealing with following the posting of a @PUCTX staff memo and an ERCOT memo in Docket 51603 here:
#txenergy #DERs
interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/filings…
Read 16 tweets
Oct 18
ERCOT and the PUCT Chair continue to put out misleading information even while they talk about rebuilding trust with the public. They're drastically misrepresenting the costs of their changes to the market. #txlege #txenergy 1/
spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news…
For months, the Chairman of the PUC and ex interim CEO of ERCOT insisted that the market changes they have made, which they often refer to as “conservative operations," only cost $1.26. They arrived at this number by looking at only a tiny part of the changes they've made. 2/
As an example, the single biggest cost of their changes isn't included in the numbers they provided to the press. The IMM told the Board in Aug that the cost from the ORDC changes (scarcity pricing) was $2b through July. $2b over 7 months doesn't equal $1.26/household. #txlege 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 18
Meeting focused on #energyefficiency just started. Cmsr Jackson will speak in a minute. When she was introduced, Chair Lake said she would focus on EE. The agenda for the mtg is below. Discussion @ 1pm of potential rule changes to the programs. #txlege
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/3857…
In 2021, Texas' energy efficiency programs saved 775GWh at a cost of 1.5c per kWh. Average cost of energy in Texas is ~10x that amount. Unfortunately, our programs are tiny relative to other states.
The report is here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/documen…
#txlege #txenergy #energytwitter Image
#Energyefficiency programs in Texas are highly cost effective, saving customers $3.80 for every $1 spent in 2021.

Crazy idea, just spitballing here, but maybe we should, I don't know, do more of it? Maybe we could, dare to dream, reach the average state's savings level?
#txlege Image
Read 6 tweets

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