My pandemic excess mortality estimate update, age standardised using 5, 7 and 8 year linear trend baselines.

#NewZealand and #Denmark the clear winners so far. #Sweden clearly establishing as next best....at least in Europe anyway.

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Data from @HMDatabase and @EU_Eurostat. ImageImageImage
#Sweden's infamous ~3% of deaths with unknown date sourced from @EU_Eurostat for all charts.

Adding those in more detail than before has the slightly paradoxical effect of reducing their excess by 20-25% as it makes their downward trend less steep.

2/

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache…
Results per 100k:

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Since the #vaccines arrived:

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And now focusing on narrower age groups as the Eurostat data is provided in 5/10 year bands. I used 10yr bands for 0-39 and 5yr for 40+ to get the highest resolution.

Thoughts:

#Sweden excelling for 20-44.
#Denmark for 45-64.
#Finland 45-64 not good.
#Austria a mess.

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And now yearly comparisons by age group:

2020 was worst for 65+ and overall.

2021 worst for middle aged 45-64.

2022 worst so far for the young 20-44.

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Younger ages have fared worst in recent weeks. Which is not good and needs further analysis. But less so in Nordics who have had life back to normal longest and no longer generally recommend testing.

NB most of these countries most recent 4 week data is for Sept/Oct.

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An irony of all this is that the country in Western Europe with the highest mortality rates over the last decade or so, #Denmark, have the lowest pandemic excess.

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Links to data:

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/datab…

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/datab…

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/datab…

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache…

mortality.org/Data/STMF

For Eurostat dataset population denominators I used midpoint of the either side year estimates as that matches HMD's methodology best.

9/
A couple of requests for the main graphs to start at 0 on the X axis....

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By variant/wave....for all ages.

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And combining the 3 baselines. Eurostat prioritized as higher resolution age data, followed by HMD 8 year then HMD 5 year.

What do people think of this format?

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And a bonus as I just stumbled upon it. The Economist now has "Demography adjusted" numbers per 100k. Very similar to mine at the low end, but in the middle and high end a lot lower. Unsure what baseline, population data they use, but worth posting:

economist.com/graphic-detail…

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More from @dobssi

May 8
Written sick leave:

@ClareCraigPath sees evidence of the vaccines causing a spike here from 2021 in the UK.

But what does everyone's favourite "control group", Sweden show?

1/


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The first thing to note is that the increase looks nothing like UK, visually.

Differences?

Sweden did not really use AstraZeneca apart from some older people in early 2021. 90% Pfizer.

And of course Sweden did not force people to stay home and scare them witless. UK did.

2/

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But let's break it down by the amount of time off sick in Sweden.

Start with <90 days:

Very seasonal and clearly one spike in 2020's first wave. After that, nothing drastic.....

3/
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Read 10 tweets
Apr 15
Of the major countries with complete and quality data for 2023, only 5 have seen an *improvement* in mortality rate for the Pandemic period 2020-23 compared to the previous 4 years.....

Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Sweden and Norway.

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The two worst results here among Western countries are England/Wales ( -6.4% ), and USA ( -10.4% ). This likely reflects not just pandemic issues but also issues that predate it, such as healthcare and dietary issues.

2/
These trends will likely be closely mirrored by Life Expectancy figures when we have them for 2023.

Its also likely when their 2023 data is complete, that South Korea will be the 6th on this list.

And I'd expect Japan too if and when data ever becomes available.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 18
I now have @CDC, @ONS and @EU_Eurostat mortality data to end of 2023.

Plus new 2023 denominators for @EU_Eurostat covering nations and major regions/cities.

Plus new data for Swedish deaths with unknown week.

2020-23 ASMR excess and YLL estimates thread for Europe and USA:

1/

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United States Age Standardised Mortality excess estimates 2020-23:

Each year's estimate shown in brackets....

2/
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All of Europe Age Standardised Mortality excess estimates 2020-23:

Each year's estimate shown in brackets....

3/
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Read 17 tweets
Dec 18, 2023
There are various ways to estimate pandemic impact; ASMR and Life Expectancy are gold standard, with various other excess estimates out there.

One that has gone under the radar, yet is simple to calculate an estimate for is YLL - Years of Life Lost.



1/ who.int/data/gho/indic…


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All one needs is age stratified deaths data going back enough years to make a decent baseline. 5 or 10 year bands is sufficient for a decent estimate.

We then multiply each death total according to something broadly resembling 100-age_at_death, and sum the total per year.

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An advantage of this method is that it is not just the number of excess deaths in a given period, but an actual estimate of how many *years* of life were lost.

By comparing to a good baseline we can estimate how many were lost compared to the non pandemic "counterfactual".

3/


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Read 15 tweets
Oct 14, 2023
Following on from my Sweden "post-pandemic data" thread, some further data to address the theory that vaccines are driving excess deaths since 2021.

This thread will look at 5 age groups.

TLDR 🇸🇪data shows no such signal, and indeed no virus damage signal in younger adults.

1/

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Here is the vaccination data for the 5 age groups. Note that dose 6 data is not included, as its only available for Stockholm region, to my knowledge.

I have managed to piece together these rates from various sources - ECDC, Folkhälomyndigheten and .

2/ pathogens.se

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Starting with the 25-49 age group. Average 2.3 doses per person. Population around 3.4 million.

Age standardised mortality rates and excess estimates:

3/

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Read 22 tweets
Sep 14, 2023
Debunk of some scaremongering by you know who.

#Sweden respiratory hospital admissions including #COVID19

Simply following the data.....

1/


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Here for various age groups are admissions with either covid19 or another respiratory disease as main diagnosis, monthly from January 2012 to May 2023.

Can you spot a signal for what Eric is claiming?

No, neither can I.

0-17, 18-29 and 30-44 first.

2/

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45-64, 65-79 and 80+

Still not seeing much sign of what Eric is claiming, although the double flu/covid wave in 80+ from December 2022 does stand out.

Data link, anyone can reproduce and you can choose any diagnoses eg circulatory, diabetes etc:


3/ sdb.socialstyrelsen.se/if_par/val_eng…


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Read 14 tweets

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