#Sweden's infamous ~3% of deaths with unknown date sourced from @EU_Eurostat for all charts.
Adding those in more detail than before has the slightly paradoxical effect of reducing their excess by 20-25% as it makes their downward trend less steep.
And now focusing on narrower age groups as the Eurostat data is provided in 5/10 year bands. I used 10yr bands for 0-39 and 5yr for 40+ to get the highest resolution.
Younger ages have fared worst in recent weeks. Which is not good and needs further analysis. But less so in Nordics who have had life back to normal longest and no longer generally recommend testing.
NB most of these countries most recent 4 week data is for Sept/Oct.
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An irony of all this is that the country in Western Europe with the highest mortality rates over the last decade or so, #Denmark, have the lowest pandemic excess.
For Eurostat dataset population denominators I used midpoint of the either side year estimates as that matches HMD's methodology best.
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A couple of requests for the main graphs to start at 0 on the X axis....
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By variant/wave....for all ages.
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And combining the 3 baselines. Eurostat prioritized as higher resolution age data, followed by HMD 8 year then HMD 5 year.
What do people think of this format?
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And a bonus as I just stumbled upon it. The Economist now has "Demography adjusted" numbers per 100k. Very similar to mine at the low end, but in the middle and high end a lot lower. Unsure what baseline, population data they use, but worth posting:
Update to deaths *from* covid, as reported by death certificate, weekly and with wave/variant peaks labelled:
Currently 17107 to week 35.
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This compares to 19944 covid deaths within 30 days of a positive test.
The two numbers tracked closely through 2020 and 2021 but diverged dramatically in 2022 with Omicron.
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In terms of excess deaths there has been a bit of a lag in data since summer. @HMDatabase last update was for week 28.
Up to then there has been nothing of note for 2022, or indeed 2021. So due some excess death which I expect this wave will provide given it is summer.
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I took excess death estimates per 100k from the Economist excess mortality model and infection estimates, vaccination rates, mask use and mobility change vs 2019 from the IHME reference scenarios database.
I split it all into years and then quarter years to see a bit more detail and trend.
I then split the countries into two groups of 25 - basically the 25 with highest vaccination score ( % vaccinated weighted towards earlier vaccination ) in one group and the rest in another.