#Moldova_Russia: Gazprom will keep the volume of gas supplied to Moldova at the level of 5.7 million m3 for Dec 2022. This constitutes only 56.5% of the previously agreed volumes for this month. Gazprom justifies this decision with false accusations that Ukraine would hinder⤵️
gas flows. On the other hand, as Moldovan govt does not fully comply with the contract signed by it last year related in part to the payment of old debts (around $700 million), Gazprom is using this as an excuse not to supply the full amount of gas, even if the Moldovan part⤵️
pays for it. These days, Moldova’s Court of Audit confirmed the debts of almost 600 million dollars of MoldovaGaz (Moldovan gas operator; 50% of the shares belong to Gazprom) with Russia. Based on the verification of the available documentation, the Court of Audit concluded⤵️
that the debt award of almost $600 million formed by the Moldovan side since 1999 is as follows: 1) $14.6 million - in the first half from 1999; 2) $144.8 million - in 1999-2007 (during Communists Party’s government);⤵️
3) $394.1 million - in the period 2011-2015 (coalitions and oligarchic governments); 4) $37.3 million - current debts for Dec 2021. Another parallel audit is carried out by British and Norwegian companies that should present the results in early 2023.⤵️
The debt issue is pending and Russia can invoke it at any time to cut the gas supply. to Moldova. Given the Russian aggression against Ukraine, gas supply disruption may also occur as a result of Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
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#EU_Russia: The oil price cap will probably be $60-70 per barrel, while the grace period will be 45 days (if loaded before Dec 5th and unloaded before Jan 19th). On the other hand, the EU is also discussing a cap price for Russian gas that would be €275 per MWh⤵️
(€2,974 per 1,000 m3). This price cap for gas is proposed for a year in futures for a month ahead. Thus, the EU tries to avoid damaging the gas market, while in reality it costs Russia nothing to sell its gas via pipeline or as LNG at a profitable price. Now, the price of⤵️
gas is at the level of €120 per MWh or €1,298 per 1,000 m3. The gas price cap mechanism will be activated in two cases: 1) for 2 weeks, the price exceeds €2,974 per 1,000 m3; 2) the difference between the TTF and the global price of LNG will exceed €58 in 10 business days.⤵️
#Ukraine_Moldova: Russia has announced that it will stop gas supplies through Ukraine, except for gas destined for Moldova: 1) Gazprom claims that Ukraine would have withheld up to 52.52 million m3 of gas destined for Moldova. I assume that these are actually⤵️
Moldova's strategic reserves that are stored in the Ukrainian storage. 2) Russia declares that it will stop the 43 million m3 of gas flowing through Ukraine to the EU, excluding the 5.7 million that are committed for daily supply to Moldova for Dec 2022.⤵️👇
Consequently, Gazprom will not deliver 37.3 million m3, in breach of contractual commitments with Ukraine. The flow of gas will stop from November 28. Gazprom conditions the resumption of supplies with the gas for Moldova stored in Ukraine (for which Moldova paid⤵️
#Russia: The NATO Assembly established through its resolution that Russia is a "terrorist state". This is a significant update to the previous Council of Europe Assembly resolution that defined only Putin’s regime (not the entire country) as terrorist.⤵️
21 NATO states are also member states of the EU. In addition, Turkey has also supported the resolution declaring Russia a terrorist state (which shows again that Erdogan is compartmentalizing the relations with Russia and both Putin and the West are accepting this). In general,⤵️
we gave two groups of states that have a tough position on Russia: 1) supporters of sanctions and no open support to treat Russia as a terrorist state (11 countries = non-NATO EU member states, plus Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand); and⤵️
#Russia_Energy: While China is showing increased vigilance over secondary sanctions for importing Russian oil as the day of the embargo (Dec 5) approaches, India is acting in a riskier fashion. Indian companies have taken several steps (with state permission):⤵️
1) Indian Oil Corp and Nayara Energy refineries ordered oil from Russia beyond Dec 5th (when the EU imposes the embargo and the oil price cap is supposed to enter in force). Other Indian processors that used to buy Russian oil are more cautious and suspended⤵️
the imports for Dec. This speaks of the non-existent state regulation that imposes a single approach to the foreign sanctions regime; 2) Indian and Russian financial institutions have established compatibility mechanisms to approve Russian insurance for seaborne oil imports.⤵️
#Russia_Sanctions: As the day of the embargo approaches (in 3 weeks - December 5th), Russia will send its tankers to Asia to arrive before the sanction is active. The embargo implies that Russian oils prohibit insurance services, brokerage, etc. The European market will be⤵️
available only if Russia ships the oil below the maximum price to be set by the EU. The upcoming embargo will increase Russia's dependence on China and India that prefer discounts.⤵️
This inevitably leads to decreased revenue: oil export duty decreased by $31 million to $118 million and revenue fell by $4 million to $130 million in the last week to November 11.
#Russia_Sanctions: Critical means of transportation in Russia are rapidly becoming obsolete. Russian Railways calls for removal of sanctions. The company sent the request to the EU 3 months ago. It criticized the lack of response, ignoring the fact that the sanctions will last⤵️
until the war ends and the EU together with Ukraine decides the fate of the sanctions. The Russian company argues that it is applying discriminatory actions, with humanitarian effects, forgetting that it is still involved in the war against Ukraine, with thousands of⤵️
civilians killed. Millions of Russians, especially the most vulnerable, are among the hardest hit. The sanctions affected 24 regional passenger rail companies in Russia. In addition to export sanctions, European companies (Siemens, Talgo) cannot perform the technical⤵️