Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Ukraine_Moldova: Russia has announced that it will stop gas supplies through Ukraine, except for gas destined for Moldova: 1) Gazprom claims that Ukraine would have withheld up to 52.52 million m3 of gas destined for Moldova. I assume that these are actually⤵️

Moldova's strategic reserves that are stored in the Ukrainian storage. 2) Russia declares that it will stop the 43 million m3 of gas flowing through Ukraine to the EU, excluding the 5.7 million that are committed for daily supply to Moldova for Dec 2022.⤵️👇

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1595005734810533889

Consequently, Gazprom will not deliver 37.3 million m3, in breach of contractual commitments with Ukraine. The flow of gas will stop from November 28. Gazprom conditions the resumption of supplies with the gas for Moldova stored in Ukraine (for which Moldova paid⤵️

with money, much of which it received from external partners, primarily the EU). In this scenario, the only way for Russian gas to go to Europe will be through Turkey (except for 5.7 million gas per day to Moldova that goes through Ukraine).⤵️

This means that Russia wants to make Turkey a main transit country for Russian gas. This will also mean Ukraine's gas transmission system will be more vulnerable during the winter,⤵️

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1590011703671955456

adding to the energy crisis in both Ukraine and Moldova. More about this here👇

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1587360741094731776

Meanwhile, the breakaway region sends letters to the OSCE and the UN accusing the Moldovan government of alleged “energy and economic blackmail.” The breakaway region wants 3.9 million of 5.7 million m3. Now it receives only 2.3 million, the rest is used by the Moldovan⤵️

constitutional authorities. Unsurprisingly, the breakaway region is not at all critical against Gazprom, which is limiting gas supplies to Moldova in the first place. Russia is playing a combination of Transnistria and gas cards against Moldova:⤵️

1) Russia hopes to provoke tensions between the Moldovan government and the separatist regime and generate a crisis that would require Russian intervention or the activation of the "5+2" format of negotiations to avoid aggravation with military connotations;⤵️

2) The Moldovan government is further discredited by tensions with the breakaway region, which aim to diminish its public legitimacy in the light of “orchestrated” protests by the kleptocratic political forces.

Similar to what explained above, the Ukrainian @GasTSOua reiterated that the Russian gas to Moldova was supplied in correspondence with the volumes shipped by Gazprom. The Ukrainian side adds that Russia seeks to block the storage of gas from Moldova in Ukraine,⤵️

as well as the use of reverse flows with Ukraine to import gas from sources other than Russia. tsoua.com/en/news/gas-ts…

My assumption was correct: Gazprom is tying the gas supply via Ukraine to Europe on the fate of Moldova's strategic gas reserves stored in Ukraine (~52 mcm). The Moldovan side has confirmed that the volumes of gas saved in Ukrainian storages (invoked by Russia) belong to Moldova.

Moldova's current vulnerability: 1) The govt has around €250 million (5 billion MDL) for compensation plan for this winter (2022-23); 2) If Russia cuts off the gas supply, & with the costs of the electricity bought from Romania, the country could need an additional €1 billion.

I spoke with some colleagues who are in Chisinau. Unexpected blackouts occur in the capital, including some regions near the Romanian border that are affected. Some checkpoints are using generators to continue the work without hindrance.

Civil preparedness is of vital importance to equip the Moldovan population with the knowledge to stay safe during a blackout and without access to public services (telecommunications, gas, heating, hot water, sewerage, drinking water, etc.). Ukraine can serve as an example.