Thread by @TheStudyofWar

🧵Part 2 on Russian defenses in eastern #Kherson:

Russian forces may be attempting to delay (slow down) rather than defend against (stop) a Ukrainian offensive on the east (left) bank of the #Dnipro River. isw.pub/UkrWar112722

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1597058912041439237

2/ Russian forces would presumably delay until they can deploy reinforcements to either stop or slow Ukrainian forces from breaking through secondary and tertiary lines of defense that protect critical GLOCs both to #Crimea and to western #Zaporizhia Oblast (as shown in the map).

3/ It is unclear if the Russian military leadership foresees a delay mission at the operational or the strategic level. An operational-level delay would require holding long enough to allow forces already in theater to move from other areas to eastern #Kherson.

4/ A strategic-level delay would mean holding long enough to allow newly-mobilized units time to arrive in the theater. The difference lies primarily in the Russian military’s perception of time-space relationships in this area.

5/ Russian forces would likely take many months to drive through a Ukrainian defensive array if the Ukrainians had built one like the one described in our Sunday report.

6/ If Russian forces expect Ukrainian forces to take months to break through their defenses in this region, they could reasonably expect additional mobilized forces or partially-trained conscripts to arrive in time to stop and possibly reverse the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

7/ But Ukrainian counter-offensives have sometimes moved much more rapidly than that, once launched.

8/ If Ukrainian forces were able to penetrate several of the Russian defensive lines in Kherson Oblast in weeks rather than months, then Russian forces would have to reinforce from other parts of the theater with forces already deployed and operating there.

9/ The defensive array itself offers no insight into the Russians’ expectations in this regard.

Read our full assessment of Russian defensive positions in eastern #Kherson Oblast: isw.pub/UkrWar112722

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