Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: Recent claims of Russian gains around #Bakhmut do not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of the city.

Read the latest on #Ukraine in tonight's Russian offensive campaign assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar112822

2/ Geolocated imagery shows that Russian forces likely captured Ozarianivka (a village about 15km southwest of #Bakhmut) around November 27 or 28.

3/ Multiple Russian sources claimed that Russian forces also captured Kurdiumivka (13km SW of #Bakhmut), Klishchiivka (7km SW of Bakhmut), Andriivka (10km SW of Bakhmut), Zelenopillia (13km south of Bakhmut), Pidhorodne (5km NE of Bakhmut) and Spirne (30km NE of Bakhmut)...

4/ ...with the intention of encircling #Bakhmut from the south and east.

There is no open-source evidence supporting these claims at this time.

5/ Russian sources have notably propagated spurious claims regarding gains around #Bakhmut as part of a continued information operation since October, and recent unsubstantiated territorial claims may be part of this continued information operation.

6/ Even if Russian forces have indeed succeeded in taking control of settlements south of #Bakhmut, these gains do not threaten the critical T0513 (Bakhmut-Siversk) & T0504 (Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka) routes that serve as major Ukrainian ground lines of communication into Bakhmut.

7/ There is also a network of smaller village roads that connect to Bakhmut via the city’s northwest. The claimed Russian positions closest to Bakhmut in Klishchiivka & Pidhorodne lead directly into prepared Ukr. defenses in Bakhmut & its western and northern satellite villages.

8/ Russian forces in #Klishchiivka, in order to advance any further, would have to cross three kilometers of fields with little cover and concealment. Russian troops, in their current degraded state, are likely unable to be able to accomplish this task quickly.

9/ #Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy #Prigozhin himself observed in October that Wagner forces operating in the #Bakhmut area advance only 100–200 meters a day.

10/ Russian claimed advances around #Bakhmut over the course of November 27 and 28 are thus unlikely to generate operational-level effects and certainly not quickly. isw.pub/UkrWar112822