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Nov 30 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
Today at noon: 🇪🇺Commission will announce an unprecedented denial of €7.5 billion in EU budget funds from #Hungary over #Orban's #RuleOfLaw violations and corruption.

Will need to be approved by a majority vote of countries. 🇵🇱&🇮🇹 may vote against, but it has the votes to pass.
In retaliation, #Orban has threatened to veto further 🇪🇺aid to #Ukraine, including an €18 billion aid package 🇺🇦desperately needs right now. Hungary also blocking a proposal for a minimum tax on multinational companies.

Will this prompt reform of Council's unanimity traditions?
🇪🇺Budget Commissioner @DReynders outlines the many Hungarian violations of EU #RuleOfLaw that must be addressed to unfreeze €7.5bn in 🇪🇺funds unfrozen - including judicial interference

"Today's decision is a significant step towards bolstering judicial independence in #Hungary"
Speaking just now at #NATO Bucharest summit, 🇩🇪Foreign Minister @ABaerbock welcomed the suspension of Hungary's 🇪🇺funds

"Rule of law is the backbone of our European democracy & the Single Market. I very much welcome that Commission has fulfilled the task"
"#Orban is receiving the €7.5bn bill from Brussels for the systematic dismantling of democracy over the past 12 years," says @Daniel_Freund, the MEP negotiator for the Rule of Law Conditionality Mechanism.

"EU money may now only flow after real reforms have been implemented."
Crucially, release of Hungary’s EU funds will be ‘all or nothing’.

Budapest has been tasked 27 "super milestones" to meet undoing #RuleOfLaw violations. No partial payments per task - all 27 must be completed to get any 💶.
🇪🇺Commission using 2 instruments to deny funds to #Hungary:

💶Rule of law conditionality mechanism to freeze €7.5bn in cohesion funds

💶Covid recovery funding conditionality to freeze €5.8bn

Total denied to #Orban: €13.3 billion
It looks like we're heading for a 🇭🇺-🇪🇺 showdown when this is put to a vote at a meeting of ministers next Tuesday, along with votes on 🇺🇦aid and 💰corporate minimum taxation #Hungary is threatening to veto in retaliation.

#Orban is at serious risk of overplaying his hand here.

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More from @DaveKeating

Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 29
Some feel that #NATO is returning to the scene of the crime today: the Palace of the Parliament in #Bucharest.

It was here in 2008 that George W. Bush strong-armed European allies into declaring that #Ukraine & #Georgia "will become members of NATO". apnews.com/article/russia…
Whether or not the Bush-pushed 2008🇺🇦🇬🇪#NATO accession declaration in #Bucharest needlessly antagonised🇷🇺or was preparation for Putin's inevitable expansion plans is a hot debate.

Either way, that NATO is here 14 years later dealing with a war in Europe is a poignant full circle
#NATO statement just issued at #Bucharest summit:

"We remain steadfast in our commitment to #Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. We will never recognise Russia’s illegal annexations, which blatantly violate the UN Charter." nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
Read 5 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 20
#COP27: we have a deal

For 1st time, rich countries have agreed to pay poor countries for damages caused by climate change - a contentious deal 30 years in the making.

But, they could not agree on details of the fund. Decisions on who pays and who receives put off to next year.
Live now: 🇪🇺VP @TimmermansEU tells #COP27 plenary: "The world will not thank us when they hear only excuses tomorrow"

"Friends are only friends if they only tell you thinks you might want to hear" says the Dutchman.

"What we have in front of us is not enough of a step forward"
The #COP27 deal has not obliged "major emitters [like 🇨🇳] to increase and accelerate their emissions cuts" says Timmermans.

"It does not bring a higher degree of confidence that we will achieve the agreements made under #ParisAgreement and in Glasgow last year"
Read 9 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 19
The sun has set here in #SharmElSheikh but there's still no #COP27 deal, 24 hours after talks were supposed to end.

However we may be close, as there appears to be a breakthrough on #LossAndDamage. All eyes on 🇺🇸 to see if they'll accept it.
I'm hearing there's been a shift from the Americans in the last hours here at #COP27.

They are ready to agree to creating a fund to help poor countries deal with the consequences of climate change - but only if it doesn't tie compensation to a determination of liability.
This #LossAndDamage u-turn is a big step by 🇺🇸and would not have been possible without the 🇪🇺's surprise reversal to its opposition on Thursday.

It may be that the Americans feel backed into a corner by the Europeans here - Biden doesn't want to be the villain who killed #COP27
Read 5 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 19
“I think our offer has led to an opening” 🇪🇺VP @TimmermansEU tells journalists as tough #COP27 negotiations go into overtime.

“But that offer was very clear. The #LossAndDamage fund should be targeted to the most vulnerable.”
“A positive result today is still in reach but we’re worried about some of the things we’ve seen and heard in the last 12 hours that might indicate a step back in ambition,” warns @TimmermansEU.

But “no deal is better than a bad deal” here at #COP27.
Flanked by EU energy and foreign ministers including @ABaerbock, @TimmermansEU tells journalists people are moving on both sides of the #LossAndDamage debate.

“But frankly I think we have done more moving than the other side.”
Read 5 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 18
#COP27 update: We’re now at the scheduled closing time and it’s clear we won’t end on time.

There’s talk of another plenary starting at midnight tonight to go overnight, but others say it’s better to start again early AM tomorrow and go through the day. worldpoliticsreview.com/cop27-2022-cli…
🇺🇸 has emerged as the climate villain here at #COP27.

Talks are expected to go through the weekend as 🇺🇸blocks 🇪🇺compromise idea on #LossAndDamage.

US delegation was apparently “blindsided” by the EU’s u-turn to support the reparations fund last night, I’m told.
Possible landing zone on #LossAndDamage: Co-proposal from Germany & Chile using 🇪🇺compromise offer.

But has to overcome opposition from:

🇺🇸: Doesn’t want liability
🇨🇳: Doesn’t want to pay

It’s looking like only a 🇺🇸🇨🇳 deal can break this deadlock.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Keating Profile picture
Nov 18
New: “The EU would like to make the following offer” @TimmermansEU announced to #COP27.

🇪🇺 would support establishing a #LossAndDamage response fund at this COP if it has “a broad donor base” and if multilateral development banks are reformed.

Can this break the deadlock? Image
This is a significant #LossAndDamage compromise offer from 🇪🇺, but it asks for significant compromise from developing countries in return.

Countries would have to promise to peak global emissions before 2025 and phase down *all* fossil fuels (not just coal), monitored by 🇺🇳.
“We hope that by this offer we are making tonight we can bring parties closer together because we believe it is urgent that we show to all our constituents we want this COP to succeed” Timmermans said

But 🇺🇸unlikely to go along with this. Is 🇪🇺hiding behind American obstruction?
Read 4 tweets

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