I have no sympathies for #Scammers who were duping people with lakhs and crores of screenshots.
At first, I along with friends of mine were in awe of how they were generating this much return. For almost, 2 years I worked a lot and tried to break the code.
Do read and retweet.
A lot of ideas were worked upon on Amibroker may it be ITM Selling of Option, Option Doublers in 2 - 3 days, Intraday Option Buying, Future Holygrail and what not. In the process we were able to make Option Chain on Amibroker, calculate option greeks on Amibroker and what not.
But no definite system was built.
If we cracked up Option Buying or burst moves, it was difficult to ascertain position-sizing. For eg. position sizing average size, doesn't make the profit so lucrative. And if the position-size is big, loss could be 70% in 3 trades.
If we cracked up Future trading, there was no way around the phase when losses will accumulate. Not to mention, higher the profits, higher the capital should be.
Then we thought whether it is at all possible to explore this much return with Indicators or system ....
...or discretionary trading was answer. But then discretionary trading has its own limits. You are on a winning streak with small capital and suddenly the market structure will change and force you to lose out a big chunk of what you profited.
Back to square 1...
One needs a military discipline while trading discretionary and not to say that a rock solid psychology which doesn't come when you are trading for a living. One wrong gut move and all your trading chips can be gone. You will be out from the markets.
Need strong family backing
or trading fund which doesn't threaten your bread and butter can only give you that kind of balls. Like a different primary business. That's why I said, its very easy to talk about risk management, following your system when primary bread and butter is not dependent on trading...
...like a hotel, rented properties, service channels bringing in ₹₹₹₹
But these scamsters were always profitable. Like 80, 100, 120 lakh with down days to remain modest as 3-4 lakh. Then they had time for live trading, youtube live, seminars, Dubai and what not...
So, with common sense we knew what was possible and what was not. We did not give up our search for perfect systems.
But all this #Fake Screenshot does have an impact on our psycyhe. After being in market for 13 years, what is it that we are doing wrong. And it was depressing.
Without big m2m's the growth on twitter was slow. People wanted to see the big shot m2m's. But one thing was clear not to get into anything fake. I was asked to nudge followers to put appreciations which I refused like many do by threatening to stop channels and I refused...
.... one thing is very simple, if we do something fake to gather followers, we are snowballing a ton of shit bag that will eventually burst on our head and will ruin all the reputation that have built over time. So we kept going. Not worrying about followers experimenting.
Truly, this whole fake screenshot m2m and finfluencers now crying for being fake is just KARMA they accrued in the form of Big Shit Bag now dropping over their own head. And whats bad, they haven't lost their followers. I mean it will drop from 500k to 480k or 160k to 140k but...
...after a pause of 6 month it will be again 600k or 200k. People will again get fooled and scam will go on. India has 140 crore population and even today its not 0.01% of population affected by the scam.
Only solution is to use your own common sense when following some one.
And question how they were earning so much profit?
1. Capital was too big. 2. Capital was never there else no body cares for a workshop or retailers. 3. Screenshot were fake. 4. If they were original, there have to be negative days which were hidden,
Its that simple.
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To understand options, three concepts are required: 1. Intrinsic / Extrinsic value 2. Time / Theta Decay 3. Implied Volatility
Option Value = Intrinsic + Extrinsic (Value)
Intrinsic Value - Value of Option if it were exercised today at CMP.
Extrinsic Value - Total Value of time in the option.
ATM and OTM options are 100% extrinsic value. ITM options have more intrinsic and less extrinsic value.
ITM Options: Intrinsic Value = Price of Underlying Asset -
Strike Price
For eg.
Nifty is at 11,416. 11400 CE of 29 Oct 2020 is at 224.40/-.
Intrinsic Value is = 11416-11400 = 16
Extrinsic Value is = 224.40-16 = 208.40.
What is RSI indicator?
RSI is used on price to identify oversold and overbought market conditions. In relative terms, when RSI line touches the 30 line, price is said to be oversold. When RSI touches the 70 line, price is said to be overbought.
Problem of using RSI traditionally is that in heavily trending market #RSI can remain oversold and overbought for a considerably long duration. Consider example of #TATACHEM for example. If you keep selling because of RSI Oversold, you can continue to make losses.
So the proper way is to use RSI + Divergence.
What is RSI Divergence? When price is moving in opposite direction of the RSI.
1. Near 70, Price is making Higher Highs & RSI is making Lower Highs; or 2. Near 30, Price is making Lower Lows & RSI is making Higher Lows.
If you hate your job, I won't advise you to start full time trading. Better yet, dont do it with loan money.
But thats exactly what I did. Not many know this.
I left my job. Arranged for funds in notice period. Took a loan to trade. Traded and made profits after all expenses..+
Everybody advises to have 2 years salary buffer before you start. I had none. 0.
Whatever loan I picked for trading, I had 4 times bigger in default. Luckily had some land, portion of which I decided to dispose and sell to cut off debt. Land does not sell easily in distress.
In 2019 I just wanted an office and got myself one. No plan.
Finished some loans, took a new so that my brother can start new business. Business crashed due to covid19 in 2021 and finally closed in May 2022 leaving debt burden again.
William's Alligator is probably the most underrated indicator in moving average category.
Alligator follows the premise that market is sideways for 70% of the time and trending only 30% of the time.
This is where William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders.
Thread 🧵
Why William's Alligator can be a great tool for traders?
It can identify Bullish, Bearish and Sideways market pretty easily. Problem is, traders don't know how to use it effectively. Alligator has three lines:
1. Lips - Fastest Line 2. Teeth 3. Jaws - Slowest Line
Book Interpretation is when Lips Crosses above Jaws, it's a buying opportunity and when below its a shorting opportunity. And when three lines are crisscrossing, instrument is sideways.
BUT this does not make it a tradeable indicator in practice. Here is what should be done.
One of the least talked topics in stock market is Winning Probability, Risk Management and Position Sizing.
Holy grail does exist but it's not a strategy. Its mindset. Ever wondered why top traders despite different trading styles average between 4-8% returns pm?
A Thread 🧵
Key to good trading is understanding your: 1. Winning Probability - How many trades you win out of 100? 2. Risk Management - How much you lose vs how much you win. Risk:Reward? 3. Position Sizing - How much quantity you execute which impacts your loss / profit?
What are the benchmarks of good returns for your trading style?
1. Investors look for 16-18% compounded returns. 2. Swing Traders are looking at 18-30% returns with passive trading and investing. 3. Traders across spectrum look at 4-8% per month in general.