After observing the information space re: #Zaporizhia and #polohy it can be determined that no current proof of a wide-scale Russian withdrawal exists.
Timeline covers events from 02/12 - 05/12. Sources included & timestamped.
1/6
Timeline covers events from 02/12 - 05/12. Sources included & timestamped.
1/6
https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/1598580248198537218
What may be deduced: troop rotation in conjunction with redoubling of defensive operations across the LOC.
s: t.me/RSaponkov/4096
This can be surmised from expansion of defensive structures across the entire Southern AO, from Mariupol west to E. Kherson Oblast.
2/
s: t.me/RSaponkov/4096
This can be surmised from expansion of defensive structures across the entire Southern AO, from Mariupol west to E. Kherson Oblast.
2/
The RAF are responding to a need to construct new defensive lines, and reinforce existing ones, in preparation for winter ops. & following the withdrawal of troops and combat capability from the west (right) bank of the Dnieper approx. 1 month ago.
3/
3/
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1597058912041439237?s=20&t=srrWZGUNTaeIpbmGVF001Q
Polohy and Tokmak are critical nodes protecting the northern flank of Melitopol & southern MSRs (main supply routes) running east/west.
4/
4/
Any withdrawal here would open a clear path for the AFU to punch south, splitting the front in two & isolating Crimea. Russia will likely not take this chance.
I would expect the RAF to heavily-reinforce this area over the coming weeks/months for this very reason.
5/
I would expect the RAF to heavily-reinforce this area over the coming weeks/months for this very reason.
5/
How did this claim evolve?
As first a statement from the daily AFU digest on Dec 02, which was then reported widely by major media outlets.
It did not, however, gain the same fervor as previous claims, perhaps out of caution, or based on the above circumstances.
6/6
As first a statement from the daily AFU digest on Dec 02, which was then reported widely by major media outlets.
It did not, however, gain the same fervor as previous claims, perhaps out of caution, or based on the above circumstances.
6/6
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