| osint_east | Profile picture
Dec 6 12 tweets 8 min read
At approx. 07:00 UTC+3 a fire was reported at the airfield in #Kursk [#курск ] where a suspected - and later reported - drone attack occurred.

This comes less than 24 hours after suspected drone attacks on Engels and Diaghilev airbases.

a/v s: t.me/gistapapapa/54…

1/N
The Governor of Kursk, Roman Starovoit, does report that the fire is the result of an #UAV attack, on airbase oil/fuel infrastructure specifically, and that the fire is localized.

s: t.me/gubernator_46/…

2/
The fire location is consistent with fuel tanks and pumping infrastructure in the northeastern quadrant of the airbase.

The specific source involved (infrastructure) of the fire is unclear.

IVO: 51.752013 N, 36.306151 E

s: t.me/kurskadm/40868
s: t.me/opersvodki/114…

3/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airfield.  TG. Sourced Dec 0Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airfield.  TG. Sourced Dec 0Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase.  osint_east
Interestingly, reactions among the Russian public are what would be expected: exasperation.

Earlier suspected drone attacks at Engels and Diaghilev, as well as other long-range attacks, leave them expressing curiosity, disappointment, and rage.

s: translations only.

4/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. SSuspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. SSuspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. SSuspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. S
Notably, the comments quickly turn to sourcing blame, with upper Russian political and military leadership aimed at first.

Note: this is a minimal sample of reactions, but among the first responding to the event.

s: translations only.

5/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. SSuspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. SSuspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. S
Translation notes:

Zadolbali [Скучающий]: one who easily irritates you, gets on your nerves.

Observation on this event and its outcomes will continue.

s: t.me/kurskadm/40869

6/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airfield.  TG. Sourced Dec 0
The reported UAV attack is having an immediate affect on the perception of safety in Kursk.

Gov. Roman Starovoit declares an extension of "yellow" terrorist threat level.

s: t.me/kurskadm/40870

7/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. S
The "yellow" threat level is mid-level of a three-tiered system, where "red" is 'critical' (highest).

"Yellow" equates to increased security patrols, military and police checkpoints, and intelligence apparatus presence.

Their effect on air-based threats is likely minimal.

8/
For reference on the severity of the fire, there is a claim that fire-trains have been dispatched.

Note: there is a rail line accessing the airbase to the north, but fire-trains are likely involved to deliver foam in large quantities.

s: t.me/kurskadm/40871

9/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. Translation.  TG. SSuspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase. V2.  osint_east
Fire Location confirmed at northern end of airbase affecting 1 to 2 vertical tanks and nearby pumping infrastructure.

s: t.me/Tsaplienko/221…

10/ Suspected drone attack on Kursk Airbase.  osint_east
s: t.me/Tsaplienko/221…

11/
Impacts of the attacks on airfield(s) are taken seriously. Specifically, diminishing returns from Russian missile strikes, and an increase in Ukraine's capacity to strike long-distance targets within Russia.

This concludes observation of th event.

12/12

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More from @osint_east

Dec 6
After observing the information space re: #Zaporizhia and #polohy it can be determined that no current proof of a wide-scale Russian withdrawal exists.

Timeline covers events from 02/12 - 05/12. Sources included & timestamped.

1/6
What may be deduced: troop rotation in conjunction with redoubling of defensive operations across the LOC.

s: t.me/RSaponkov/4096

This can be surmised from expansion of defensive structures across the entire Southern AO, from Mariupol west to E. Kherson Oblast.

2/
The RAF are responding to a need to construct new defensive lines, and reinforce existing ones, in preparation for winter ops. & following the withdrawal of troops and combat capability from the west (right) bank of the Dnieper approx. 1 month ago.

3/

Read 6 tweets
Dec 4
@TheStudyofWar released its daily (12/03) assessment:

"...[a] limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank."

#UkraineRussianWar
#Kherson

1/4

🔽
The challenge with this assessment is that it takes a video-based claim and extrapolates and operational outcome from it.

s: t.me/aerocarlson/689

Albeit ISW's language leaves room for interpretation, this should not be considered as a practical assessment. Emil expands:

2/
Geographically this area is not suitable for expansive operational maneuver. The AFU claimed a "bridgehead" on what is essentially an island, bordered by extensive floodplain, and separated by two more rivers. They also chose a location closest to Kherson center.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
Claim: #Russian Forces are Evacuating in the #Zaporizhzhia AO.

A fact-based thread tracking communications regarding this evolving claim & related events.

Claims sorted by type & origin [ 1️⃣ , 2️⃣ ... ; 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 ]

#OSINT
#UkraineRussianWar

1/N

mapclips: @DefMon3 Area of claims observation: Russian forces "evacuating
1️⃣🇺🇦 18:00 UTC+2

On Thursday 01/12 the #GSUA stated in its daily report that individual Russian units & officials were repositioning, or evacuating, from the #Zaporizhzhia AO.

Specifically IVO settlements:

#Polohy (city)
#Mykhailivka
#Inzhenerne

s: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

2/ GSUA Daily Report Statement. December 01, 2022.
1️⃣🇺🇦

The statement conveys that Russian units & occupation admin. officials are leaving positions in public & private structures & spaces. It is specific to the point of naming the buildings that units are using.

There is no *official Russian response to claim (1) on Dec 1.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 1
@TheStudyofWar released its daily (11/30) assessment:

"Disruptions associated with partial #mobilization and Russian setbacks on the battlefield likely contributed to increasing war weariness among #Russian public, as reflected in the polling."

1/10

#UkraineRussiaWar️
The most recent poll referenced was conducted by the Federal Protective Service (FSO), a #Kremlin apparatus. Its results show a relatively-unchanged number of respondents are "in favor of peace talks" as compared to a similar poll conduced in October.

2/

meduza.io/en/feature/202…
The dynamics of the poll—including the precise geography of respondents and their affiliations, and whether incentives were involved—is unclear.

However, there is an observed increase in what may be considered "war weariness" as opposed to direct "anti-war" sentiment.

3/ Results from FSO Opinion Po...
Read 11 tweets
Nov 30
Good point. We can expand on this.

Ukraine has deftly controlled their information space (in a way that will be studied for years), and through the backing of Western partners/supporters.

This includes not only promulgation of narratives, but also intelligence operations.

1/3
Russia does have tight control of the narrative internally, but the open-source nature of the war, and the sheer volume of Ukraine supporters processing available data, makes it a near-impossible task to contain info spread, or embed disinformation.

2/
meduza.io/en/short/2019/…
Example:

I have watched picture sets of Russian casualties posted on TG, and within an hour they are:

• cross-posted here
• geolocated
• cross-referenced through Russian SM
• added to open-source casualty databases
• added to daily updates

then shared 1000s of times.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 29
Observation: in the past three weeks the reported use of #shahed136 has declined significantly.

Early estimates (September) suggested Russia had planned to obtain 1,800 - 2,400 aerial munitions from Iran, either directly, or through relicensed assembly; many are Shahed-136.
Interceptions have slowed, implying use of the drone has declined. Increasing failure rate of interception is highly unlikely.

A few possibilities:

1. Attrition
2. E/W countermeasures
3. Stock replenishment cycle
4. Fewer media reports
5. Supply interruption
6. Training cycles Claimed Shahed-136 Intercep...
An expansive look at the Shahed-136 can be found in an earlier thread.

Read 5 tweets

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