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Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Dec 7 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
👉🧐Contrarian indicator = hedge fund equity market exposure which is now exceptionally low ... as during 2008 Lehman, 2012 EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis, 2020 Covid crash & now with higher rates, recession likelihood ... Thoughts? Food for thought ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Image
Complementary another contrarian metric & view:
👉CEO Business Confidence Expectations for the Economy & S&P 500
Thoughts ?
$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities Image
Another contrarian sentiment metric, Europe edition
👉economic expectations/sentiment is about 2007-2009 Lehman implosion levels and worse than 2012 EuroZone Sovereign Debt Crisis ... Image
US Consumer Sentiment still very low after it even dipped below 2007-2009 Lehman GFC

👉Longest run of extreme negative sentiment since 1952 (prior record was 4 straight months during 1980 recession)

Contrarian indicator also?

$SPY #SPX #Stocks #Equities #InterestRates #FED Image

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More from @Maverick_Equity

Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 31
Big Tech Q3 key remark: %YoY change in operating margin, let that sink in!
$META -14.0%
$GOOGL -7.5%
$AAPL -0.9%
$AMZN -2.4%
$MSFT -1.7%
Big tech drag on the S&P500 / $SPY
$META $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $TSLA
Big tech drag on the S&P500 / $SPY: % price YTD and holdings weight
$META $GOOGL $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $TSLA
Read 7 tweets
Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 29
$KR 🧵on a name not popular and not covered cause boring ... but makes money: +96% since January 2020, +5% in 2022 a year when not much worked ...
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$KR Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY #SPX $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$KR The Kroger capital allocation: Image
Read 4 tweets
Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 28
$PLTR Q3 earnings preview🧵7th Nov:
Valuation since DPO: Price, Actual & Estimated Sales with Free Cash Flow switching positive:
👉when PLTR was making 1bn Sales & Sales estimates were 1.3bn, price = 44
👉when PLTR is making 1.74bn in Sales & Sales est are 2.09bn, price = 8.61🧐 Image
$PLTR Earnings History & Surprises:
👉actual EPS vs EPS surprise
👉1 day price % reaction ... if you feel like trading the stock and/or options during the Q3 earnings have this in mind ... Image
$PLTR Financials Actuals & Consensus:
Wall Street consensus expects:
👉$475m Q3 Revenues while for Q4 $507m with revenue growth just 21% and 17%
👉 1.9bn for 2022, 2.3bn for 2023 and 3bn for 2024 with revenue growth just 23%, 24% and 25% =🧐materially below management guidance? ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 27
Big Tech charts thread🧵🧵🧵visualizing fundamentals, less words, visuals say 1,000 words:
$META Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$META Facebook capital allocation:
👉CAPEX fully deployed again: $27.6bn & 23.4% out of Revenues
👉Stock Buyback Yield at a crazy 15.2%
Food for thought ... thoughts ?
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
$GOOG Free Cash Flow please, overview:
👉Price/Free Cash Flow
👉Free Cash Flow growth (year over year)
👉Free Cash Flow / share
👉Free Cash Flow absolute value
$SPY $QQQ #Stocks #Equities Image
Read 24 tweets
Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 21
👉Buffett bought more stock this quarter than in 2008 when he saw a lot of value at a discount
👉I remember like it was yesterday reading his 2008 piece from NYT 'Buy American. I Am.'
👉And yes, I did buy as well ... almost 15 years passed since then ...
nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opi… Image
during 2020-2021 was great to talk with @TSOH_Investing and conclude that BRK would be a very good risk/return profile going forward with a less friendly FED and/or likely inflation ... which yes, it happened ...
one of Buffett's latest purchases is HP $HPQ ... No wonder Buffett bought HP as I am quite sure he likes this kind of 'inflection' points where shares outstanding go down while dividends go up ... tailwind ... margin of safety ... value investing ... Image
Read 5 tweets
Maverick Equity Research 🇺🇦✌️🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 17
1) $PLTR 🧵thread after yesterday's Q4 Earnings Preview, today Q4 Earnings Review. As I expected, revenue beat but EPS miss: Q4 & FY 2021 Financial Summary, but let's dig in:🧵
👉Revenue growth 41% 2021 vs 2020
👉lower Q1 2022 outlook (market not liking it)
2) 👉SPAC investments: I was expecting 50-60m UNrealised loss, came in higher with 73m
3) 👉SBCs (Stock Based Compensation) dropping materially in 2021 from 2020 as expected - guidance: SBC will be lower and will be inline with other peers (I am still modelling the forward rate)
4) Cash, Equity & Debt:
👉higher cash position is never bad: 2.3bn
👉total equity higher from 1.5bn to 2.3bn
👉no debt (non-current), hence hiking rates, mneah, not an issue (if it was a non-fixed rate)
Read 12 tweets

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