@abacusdataca survey conducted Dec 6 to 10, 2022 (n=2,500 with 1,000 in Alberta)
Perceptions about the direction of the country have hit a new low.
30% of Canadians think Canada is headed in the right direction.
Impressions of @JustinTrudeau are fairly steady. Net favourable at -26.
Impressions of @PierrePoilievre also steady. Net favourable at -5.
Top 3 issues. Healthcare is rising, cost of living is #1, and climate change/environment is drifting down.
Federal vote intention:
Conservatives have opened up a clear lead of 6 points nationally. They lead in BC, Alberta, SK/MB, and now Ontario.
Liberals are only ahead in Atlantic Canada.
The environment right now is pretty good for the Conservatives. They'd likely win the most seats with these kinds of #s, and maybe even a slim majority.
On key issues, the Liberals trail CPC.
PM's favourables are as neg as they have been.
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Just finished an @abacusdataca survey of 1,000 Albertans (Dec 6 to 10) as part of a national survey.
Will have a deep dive into the AB political environment out in the next few days, but the data I'm seeing lays out the path for both the UCP and NDP pretty clearly. #ableg
As I see it, there are 4 key segments of voters to watch carefully.
✔️Loyal UCP - Voted UCP in '19, and would today.
✔️Loyal NDP - Voted NDP in '19 & would today.
✔️Reluctant UCP - Voted UCP '19 and aren't or are undecided now.
✔️Smaller parties - Voted AP, Lib, etc in 2019.
The most interesting to me is the 𝓡𝓮𝓵𝓾𝓬𝓽𝓪𝓷𝓽 𝓤𝓒𝓟 group.
All voted UCP in '19 and now they say they aren't or are undecided.
When you look at how this group compares with the Loyal UCP and Loyal NDP groups, you see what each party has to do to win next year.
I've been thinking a lot about the occupation/protests in Ottawa and have been inspired by work being done by colleagues and others to understand the dynamics of public opinion and the impact on political behaviour.
And I think our political future will depend upon having a really good understanding of the opinion landscape.
This is especially true for those who lead orgs in business, media, and government. As I'll show you, you don't see the world in the same way as everyone else.
In preparing for a briefing for a client on tax fairness, affordability, and public policy in Canada, I went back to a survey we did for @PIPSC_IPFPC and @broadbent in July 2021.
A lot of the same concerns I see today in polling existed then...
Soon after the discovery of the remains of 215 children at the Kamloops residential school site, we conducted a national survey of 3,000 Canadians with @CRRF and @AFN_Updates.
The results indicate that this event might be a tipping point.
Not only did almost all Canadians hear about it, but it had most people thinking about residential schools and how Indigenous people have been treated in Canada.
How did Canadians react to the discovery? 24% weren't surprised, but for the rest of the country, it was worse than they thought. 1 in 3 said they were "shocked" by the news.
Men are significantly less likely to wear masks compared to women. Mask wearing is more common among the youngest and older adults, and resistance to wearing masks is highest among those in the 45-59 age group.
Mask wearing is most common in Ontario and least common in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. 40% of rural-dwelling Canadians never wear a mask.
2/ Compared with January 2020, those extremely/very concerned about the spread of infectious diseases as a global issue as increased by 13-points to 68% overall. It is now the TOP global issue of concern for Canadians.