🧵Some new #cdnpoli data to tee up the #byelection in Mississauga tonight.

@abacusdataca survey conducted Dec 6 to 10, 2022 (n=2,500 with 1,000 in Alberta)
Perceptions about the direction of the country have hit a new low.

30% of Canadians think Canada is headed in the right direction. Image
Impressions of @JustinTrudeau are fairly steady. Net favourable at -26.

Impressions of @PierrePoilievre also steady. Net favourable at -5. ImageImage
Top 3 issues. Healthcare is rising, cost of living is #1, and climate change/environment is drifting down. Image
Federal vote intention:

Conservatives have opened up a clear lead of 6 points nationally. They lead in BC, Alberta, SK/MB, and now Ontario.

Liberals are only ahead in Atlantic Canada. ImageImage
The environment right now is pretty good for the Conservatives. They'd likely win the most seats with these kinds of #s, and maybe even a slim majority.

On key issues, the Liberals trail CPC.
PM's favourables are as neg as they have been.

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More from @DavidColetto

Dec 14
Just finished an @abacusdataca survey of 1,000 Albertans (Dec 6 to 10) as part of a national survey.

Will have a deep dive into the AB political environment out in the next few days, but the data I'm seeing lays out the path for both the UCP and NDP pretty clearly. #ableg
As I see it, there are 4 key segments of voters to watch carefully.

✔️Loyal UCP - Voted UCP in '19, and would today.
✔️Loyal NDP - Voted NDP in '19 & would today.
✔️Reluctant UCP - Voted UCP '19 and aren't or are undecided now.
✔️Smaller parties - Voted AP, Lib, etc in 2019. Image
The most interesting to me is the 𝓡𝓮𝓵𝓾𝓬𝓽𝓪𝓷𝓽 𝓤𝓒𝓟 group.

All voted UCP in '19 and now they say they aren't or are undecided.

When you look at how this group compares with the Loyal UCP and Loyal NDP groups, you see what each party has to do to win next year. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 26
I've been thinking a lot about the occupation/protests in Ottawa and have been inspired by work being done by colleagues and others to understand the dynamics of public opinion and the impact on political behaviour.

#FreedomConvoy2022 #cdnpoli #society #mrx #polling #canada
And I think our political future will depend upon having a really good understanding of the opinion landscape.

This is especially true for those who lead orgs in business, media, and government. As I'll show you, you don't see the world in the same way as everyone else.
In preparing for a briefing for a client on tax fairness, affordability, and public policy in Canada, I went back to a survey we did for @PIPSC_IPFPC and @broadbent in July 2021.

A lot of the same concerns I see today in polling existed then...
Read 30 tweets
Feb 24
The latest @abacusdataca poll comes about 2 weeks after our previous one. Here's what we found:

1. LPC and CPC are deadlocked at 31%. NDP at 20%

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
2. 3-way race in BC, LPC slightly ahead in ON, and BQ ahead by 8 in Quebec. CPC is well ahead in the Prairies.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
3. Mood of the country has stabilized but is still lower than at any point since Spring 2021. All this was done before today's events in Ukraine.

More here: abacusdata.ca/canadian-polit… Image
Read 10 tweets
Jun 15, 2021
Soon after the discovery of the remains of 215 children at the Kamloops residential school site, we conducted a national survey of 3,000 Canadians with @CRRF and @AFN_Updates.

The results indicate that this event might be a tipping point.

THREAD

crrf-fcrr.ca/en/news-a-even…
Not only did almost all Canadians hear about it, but it had most people thinking about residential schools and how Indigenous people have been treated in Canada.
How did Canadians react to the discovery? 24% weren't surprised, but for the rest of the country, it was worse than they thought. 1 in 3 said they were "shocked" by the news.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 6, 2020
THREAD on our new polling on mask-wearing.

A third of Canadians always wear a mask when they enter a public place like a retail outlet and a quarter never do.

Full results: abacusdata.ca/masks-polling-…
Men are significantly less likely to wear masks compared to women. Mask wearing is more common among the youngest and older adults, and resistance to wearing masks is highest among those in the 45-59 age group.
Mask wearing is most common in Ontario and least common in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. 40% of rural-dwelling Canadians never wear a mask.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 18, 2020
A few thoughts on the new @worldvisionca/@abacusdataca poll for #WorldRefugeeDay

Most Canadians have thought about how the pandemic is impacting people living in poor countries and it impacts on inequality.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r… 1/
2/ Compared with January 2020, those extremely/very concerned about the spread of infectious diseases as a global issue as increased by 13-points to 68% overall. It is now the TOP global issue of concern for Canadians.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r…
3/ Canadians overwhelmingly recognize that COVID puts those living in refugee or displaced persons camps are at far greater risk than Canadians.

More here: abacusdata.ca/world-vision-r…
Read 5 tweets

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