Thread by @WAJKoenitz

For month now, #FreeTheLeopards is a popular chant in the social networks. People demand especially from #Germany, to “finally take the foot from the break” and “send the Leopards”. As a Panzergrenadier Veteran and member of the #OSINT community, I want to give some insights 🧵

Main questions I hope to answer with the 🧵:

1. How many 🐆 MBTs are there?
2. How many does 🇩🇪 operate?
3. Are the stored Leopard 1 any good?
4. How many tanks does 🇺🇦 operate?
5. What does 🇺🇦 actually want?
6. What could be actually send?
7. Is 🇩🇪 blocking 🐆 from others?

1.&2.: 🇩🇪 owned 2.125 🐆2 MBTs in 1990. From these ≈1.800 were sold to other nations. 🇩🇪 reduced its own stock to 266 in 2020, soon to be re-increased to 328. The difference is accounted for by sales to many other nations and can be checked here: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2

3.: @RheinmetallAG offered 🇺🇦 88 stored 🐆 1 tanks from its storage. amp.n-tv.de/politik/Unters…
While I don’t know exactly why this offer wasn’t agreed upon by the government, I did talk to former / current 🇩🇪 tank NCOs/Officers and a industry expert. This is what we concluded:

Still 3.: The 🐆 1 was made to fight T55s and T62s. But with the appearance of the T72s, it had a serious problem. It’s L7 105 mm main gun had trouble penetrating the newer T-Tanks at their frontal ark. The 🇩🇪 DM23 round could only penetrate 390 mm RHA (tank steel).

Still 3.: That’s when the 🐆 2 was basically a done deal and a necessity - 1972 that is! Even the most modern DM63 for the L7 main gun can only penetrate 530 mm RHA at 4km. In 1985 the T72 received C5 reactive armor, which added another 250 mm RHA to the existing ≈550 mm RHA.

Still 3.: The armor thickness of the 🐆 1A5 is roughly 330 mm RHA at its turret and only 165 mm RHA at its hull against kinetic penetrators or APFSD shells. Even a T62 can penetrate here with the first hit. The 🐆 1 is basically a successor of the lightly armored WW2 Jackson.

Still 3.: The M36 Jackson was a #TankDestroyer, made to be cheap and available en mass. But while the M36 had a superior gun to balance its thin armour, the 🐆 1 gun isn’t superior anymore since ‘85. Even at lower distances of 2km a penetrating hit basically became a luck shot.

Still 3.: While the 🐆 1A5 offers relative good mobility (forward 65 km/h and backwards ca 25 km/h), it lacks protection and fire power, especially for the wide and open fields of southern 🇺🇦, without much cover to retreat towards in speed.

4.: 🇺🇦 had previously ca. 2.2K MBTs or #MainBattleTanks of various variants (T64, T72, T80). Why this many? A couple of the biggest tank plants of the former SU are positioned there! 10.000s of APCs / IFVs too. With this force, the 🇺🇦 Army was the No.2 biggest army in Europe.

Still 4.: Of these ca. 2.2K MBTs, roughly 1.800 were updated since 1989. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e… 🇺🇦 lost minimum 550 MBTs to date. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack… 🇺🇦 captured minimum 534 MBTs from Russia! 2.184 MBTs should be still available or in repair.

5.: While the Ambassador of Ukraine made this fun little 🎄 wishlist video lately, including 🐆 2A6, it isn’t necessarily the best choice for its military, according to a interview with a officer. So, what do they actually ask for them in terms of #MainBattleTanks?

https://twitter.com/makeiev/status/1601564086629650432

Still 5.: According to a interview with a 🇺🇦 officer, they are asking for systems they are familiar with, both in maintenance and tactical operation. The citation is from a video of @MilHiVisualized

Still 5.: But how many T72 would be available in European storages? It turns out that roughly 1.100 T72 in different variants are still available in EU countries armies and storages, even accounted for with the roughly 270 to 300 recently delivered ones. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-72_oper…

Still 5: Very recently, the commander in chief of the Ukrainian army stated the following (see below). It should be possible to be delivered very soon, if the US is compensating the losses of the NATO Allie’s with a couple hundred of its stored 2.600 M1A1 and M1A2 Abrams.

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1603409655115440135

Still 5.: Signs are pointing towards a solution like the one mentioned below. We are calling these kinds of deals #TankSwaps or #Ringtausch - Germany already provided ≈68 MBTs this way. Lately the US and NL bought 90 old T72, which are currently updated in 🇨🇿.

Still 5.: Deliveries of Eastern Style MBTs (and ofc other vehicles / weapons 🇺🇦 already uses) offer a fast integration into an existing force structure and logistical system, without sourcing for parts and ammunition which are not available in a short manner.

Still 5.: Tens of thousands of 🇺🇦 served with T tanks in the last decade. Learning new systems, especially for technicians, takes many valuable month - even years. While it might be an option to send vehicles back for repair, like the PZH2000, it complicates everything.

Still 5.: After 🇵🇱 blocked a 🇩🇪 operated repair center in its country (they demanded to be gifted the IP for the PZH2000), it takes 6 days to transport a PZH2000 to the new RepCenter at 🇱🇹. Repairs take time too. It results in at least 14 d of abscence from the front lines.

Still 5.: A In-country repair usually happens ≈200 km away from the front lines. Transport takes maybe 4 h in sum. Over a year, the time saved due to maximized availability (and therefore lives saved) amounts to weeks, with a whole fleet of vehicles.

6.: I already pointed towards the answer of what could be sent! Basically 1.100 T72 are available or at least in service in European armies. The US has 2.600 Abrams MBTs in storage, incl 6 floating brigade size storages (incl IFVs and periphery) all over the planet.

Still 6.: Just FYI, if you ask yourself why Greece can’t send Tanks and is not moving away from its 210 reserved Marder 1A3 #IFVs with Rheinmetall (part of the Lynx IFV Deal), Read the discussion I had with SoziPatriot about the Turkish threats of invasion.

https://twitter.com/WAJKoenitz/status/1603767162887446531

7.: Is the German government blocking Leopard deliveries by other countries? The answer is likely no. The responsible minister for the control of exports of weapons from 🇩🇪, #RobertHabeck said month ago:

Still 7.: „Im zuständigen Bundeswirtschaftsministerium ist bislang zwar kein offizielles Exportgesuch aus Spanien eingegangen, doch aus dem Ministerium von Robert Habeck (Grüne) heißt es vielsagend, man habe bislang keinen Exportantrag in die Ukraine negativ entschieden…“ (1/2)

Still 7.: „…Auch bei einer möglichen Anfrage zu den Leopard-Systemen aus Spanien würde es wohl bei dieser Linie bleiben.“ (sic) spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…

Still 7.: As pointed out above, the reasons for not sending western style tanks, is most likely the abundant availability of T-Tanks within Europe and the complexity of switching to new systems in depth (time consuming). What many people do not know or understand:

Still 7.: The support for 🇺🇦 is being coordinated with #NATO through coordinating organizations such as the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (#EADRCC) of NATO. The experts from all NATO nations speak with Ukraine about their needs (civilian / military)…

Still 7.: …and communicates these needs afterwards with #NATOALLIES. After receiving the NATO request, member states discuss who could deliver what and when. So while the help send by individual members seems random, it is most certainly not. The same goes for Germany.

Still 7.: What help could be send, very often is determined by what a country has in stock. Countries which are not capable of delivering as many military devices as the US, often support by providing funds…

Still 7.: …for example when #Poland announced it would send 230 to 250 MBTs, 🇩🇪 send roughly the value worth of these tanks to the #EuropeanPeaceFacilityFund or #EPF - while I didn’t receive an answer to wether Poland used these funds to get refunded from the EPF…

Still 7.: …it goes to show the basic principles at play behind NATO support for our friends in 🇺🇦. I personally hope this horrible ordeal for the Ukrainian people may end as soon as possible and a #BuchaTribunal may serve justice! ✊🏼

Thank you for your attention thus far.

Correction: Germany provided ≈48 MBTs, not 68. The rest will arrive in form of IFVs