Instead of the annual press conference, #Putin talked to the #Kremlin pool (BTW, since today, they have an official dress code). Here is a short thread about what we learned:
- #Russian economy is resilient because its deficits are smaller than those of the U.S. and China 1/
- the price cap will not affect budget revenues: "we're still selling at these prices." the reciprocal law he will sign on Mon-Tue bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 2/
- "we won't throw money away: macro stability is paramount," which means that the ultra-conservative policy of #Fortress Russia will continue.
more on that by @elinaribakova 3/
//twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1605211618299809793?s=20&t=mLBfczl7SdypEhhakRbHLw
- Ukrainian military-industrial complex was "zeroed," which, acc to Putin, means the demilitarization goal has been achieved. Promised to "snap Patriots", commenting on military supplies for #Ukraine 5/
- Putin said, he meets every day with the military. Now, who shapes his current views of the surrounding reality is clearer: military and his bodyguards. The annual meeting with business and direct line was canceled. More on this from @Stanovaya (RUS) 6/ carnegieendowment.org/politika/88642
- The oligarchs withdrawing money from RU are a threat, which indirectly points to a possible new redistribution of property among those who remain in the country and are supportive of the war first but not the last signs of that by @maxseddon 7/ ft.com/content/32052a…
- If the #gas price ceiling violates Gazprom's contracts, #Gazprom will stop supplying gas: "we'll think about whether we have to fulfill these contracts" 8/
On the 302 day of the war, Kremlin pool journalists wonder if Putin has time for sports and exercise. Why it doesn't surprise me? END/
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Divergent trends in #Russia regions. @bank_of_russia version:
Central region:New buildings are unsold due to oversupply on the secondary market
NW region: The shipyards are busy but face labor shortages.Meat and dairy producers have simplified and cheapened the range of products
Volga region: due to the uncertainty, developers reduced the number of new projects. Horizon of tourist trips was significantly reduced
South region: High tourist flow supported consumption, but expectations are subdued. Azov-Black Sea ports cargo turnover at maximum
Ural region: Enterprise's estimates of output and demand improved. High rate of housing construction. Steelmakers plan to cut investment because of reduced exports
Siberia region: Coal production declined due EU embargo and railroad congestion in the eastern direction.O&G firms..
#Putin suggested establishing new intnl settlement system based on ancient Hawala. The urge for Hawala 2.0 shows how desperately 🇷🇺 needs a systemic solution to the issue of intnl payments.Attempts to switch to rub/yuan/gold/crypto haven't been successful
Hawala (originated in 8th century in South Asia) is an informal funds transfer system that allows for the transfer of funds from one person to another without the actual movement of money. Nowadays it is also called underground banking and is widely used, for instance, in Iran
This is how it works: Vladimir needs to send $1000 to his partner Ali, who lives in another country. So he approaches a hawaladar Deniz and gives him the amount of money for Ali. Deniz contacts the hawaladar in Ali's country and asks him to give money to Ali.
1/ The English version of my text for @CarnegieEndow: Why Are Russia’s Technocrats Silent on the War? based on several interviews with high-ranked #Russian officials came up. A thread about it 1-12
2/ The Russian Security Council meeting on February 21, just a few days before the invasion, showed that #Putin is the only person in the room who is allowed to make decisions. the rest need to support him undoubtedly or even anticipate his wishes.
3/ The new rules of the game don’t appear unreasonable to the technocrats; their professionalism is replaced by loyalty. There is no longer any need to be oriented by the public mood, nor by that among the ruling elites.
У нас интересная дискуссия со @Stanovaya о Пригожине. Согласна со многими наблюдениями, однако считаю, что он все еще маргинал: мы достоверно не знаем как часто Пригожин встречается с Путиным, он как и Кадыров может создавать видимость этих встреч 👇
возможно, Пригожин может позвонить руководителю администрации президента Антону Вайно, но не факт, что Вайно подорвется выполнять пригожинскую просьбу. Его роль в назначении Суровикина в принципе минимальна - его назначение и методы обсуждались еще летом
у Пригожина по-прежнему нет "темы" - сколько-нибудь значимых активов, чтобы считаться "уважаемым человеком" среди российской элиты. его СМИ - медиапомойки без влияния, нефть в Сирии незначительна, а ЧВК в мирное время тоже так себе актив.
THREAD 1/ #Russia’s reasons to agree #grain deal and deblock ports in #Ukraine: 1. Exemptions from sanctions for Putin’s cronies banks and billions $ from food exports 2. Russia’s agricultural sector is crucially dependent on import
2/ Russia got $11bln from grain exports in 2021, $10 in 2010. It’s very important part of state revenues. This year a record harvest is expected (130 min tonnes), and correspondingly high profits. Beneficiaries of the largest agricultural holdings are close to the #Kremlin
3/ Dmitry Patrushev, the Minister of Agriculture, is the eldest son of the secretary of the Security Council. The owners of Demetra-Holding (second largest exporter of grain) are VTB and the Marathon Group of Alexander Vinokurov, son-in-law of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov etc