Share this page!

ISW Profile picture
Twitter logo
Dec 29 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
The Kremlin is framing the US transfer of Patriot air defense systems and trainers to #Ukraine as an escalation in US-Russia relations, despite the fact that the transfer is if anything less escalatory than previous Western military shipments to Ukraine...
isw.pub/UkrWar122822 Image
...because #Patriot is a purely defensive system.

2/ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed in a televised interview on December 28 that US officials had guaranteed to not send Patriot air defense trainers to #Ukraine in an effort to refrain from participating in the war
3/ The #Kremlin has previously highlighted the US transfer of Patriot air-defense systems in accusations that the United States and the West are waging a proxy war in Ukraine with the intent of weakening or destroying the Russian Federation.
4/ The #Kremlin uses these accusations in support of information operations that aim to frame #Ukraine as a Western puppet devoid of sovereignty and to weaken Western security assistance to Ukraine by stoking fears of Russian escalation.
5/ The #Kremlin could use any Western transfer of military equipment to #Ukraine as support for these information operations.
6/ The #Kremlin’s decision to react to the transfer of the Patriot air defense systems more strongly than to previous weapons transfers indicates that the Kremlin is more concerned with the effect Western help can have on #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine...
...than with supposed Russian fears of putative Ukrainian offensive actions against the Russian Federation itself using Western systems.
7/ That observation is worth considering in the context of Western discussions of providing #Ukraine with Western tanks, long-range attack systems, and other capabilities.
8/ @TheStudyofWar forecasts with high confidence that #Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion.
9/ #Russia is barely holding off the Ukrainian military at a fearful cost to itself and Russian forces in #Ukraine could not survive a serious conflict with NATO at this time.
10/ The risks of deliberate Russian escalation to a major conflict with NATO in the foreseeable future are thus extremely low. isw.pub/UkrWar122822

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with ISW

ISW Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Dec 30
ISW has produced hundreds of assessments and thousands of maps tracking the war in #Ukraine this year, but a few stand out.🧵of top moments.

Thanks to so many of you who have given already. We need your continued support to sustain our work in 2023. isw.pub/Give ImageImage
1. Russian President Vladimir Putin began a large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 likely aimed at full regime change and the occupation of #Ukraine.

On February 25, Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r… Image
2. March 19 - #Ukraine Defeats the Initial Invasion

ISW assesses that the initial Russian campaign to seize Ukraine’s capital and major cities and force regime change has failed. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r… ImageImage
Read 15 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Dec 30
The #Kremlin continues to manipulate Russian law to grant the state increasingly broad powers using vague language in order to eliminate dissent and threaten Ukrainian sympathizers. isw.pub/UkrWar122922 Image
2/ Russian President Vladimir #Putin signed a supplement to the Russian Criminal Code on December 29 that allows Russian authorities to sentence Russians to up to life imprisonment for “assistance to subversive activities...”
...or for “undergoing training for the purpose of carrying out sabotage activities” and for “organizing a sabotage community” and between 5- and 10-years imprisonment for “participation in such a community.”
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Dec 29
The #Kremlin continues to systematically deny Ukrainian sovereignty and reiterate that #Russia has no genuine intention to engage in negotiation with #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the Ukrainian proposal to prepare a peace initiative at the UN in February and emphasized that no peace plan can exist for #Ukraine without accounting for the entry of Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, & Luhansk oblasts into #Russia.
3/ Peskov clearly indicated that the #Kremlin has no genuine intent to compromise its demands, thus directly undermining the Kremlin’s own narrative that #Russia is willing to talk but #Ukraine is not.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Dec 29
Russian forces appear less likely to conduct a new offensive in the #Zaporizhia Oblast over the winter. isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Russian forces are likely establishing defenses against possible Ukrainian offensive operations in #Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces likely destroyed a bridge over a river in Polohy on December 28.
3/ A senior Ukrainian military official stated on December 28 that there are no signs of Russian forces in #Zaporizhia Oblast forming strike groups despite some rotations and deployments there.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Dec 29
Russian forces appear to be preparing for a decisive effort in #Luhansk Oblast, although it is unclear whether for defensive or offensive operations.🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar122822
2/ Russian forces continue accumulating equipment and forces in Luhansk. Russian airborne (VDV) elements that were likely previously operating in Kherson Oblast appear to have redeployed to Luhansk Oblast following the Russian withdrawal from west bank Kherson Oblast in November.
3/ Social media images from late December increasingly show Russian equipment in transit in #Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces are operating military district-level thermobaric artillery assets in the Luhansk area of operations, which may indicate prioritization of operations there.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Dec 29
Indicators that Russian forces around #Bakhmut have culminated:

- Senior Ukrainian officials are visiting frontline positions unimpeded

- Russian airborne forces are reportedly augmenting Wagner

- Russian forces are operating in squad-sized assault groups due to combat losses
2/ @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed that #Wagner Group forces are serving a chiefly attritional role around #Bakhmut and have therefore likely become degraded to a near-debilitating extent and need reinforcement from more conventional Russian elements.
3/ High rates of attrition amongst the forces responsible for the offensive on #Bakhmut may expedite the culmination unless notable numbers of regular Russian military units are sent to sustain the offensive and delay or avert its culmination.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(