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Jan 4 โ€ข 12 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Well, hello ๐Ÿซ day!

Precious metals making fresh 6-month highs as $TNX puts in a big higher low with $WTIC taking the ๐Ÿซ

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ with ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ โ†—๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 25717 -1.45% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
$SSEC 3124 +0.2%
$TWII 14199 -0.2%
$HSI 20793 +3.2% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
$KOSPI 2256 +1.65%
$IDX 613 -1.05%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7059 +1.65%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 60657 -1.05%
Europe โ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†—๏ธ

$DAX 14415 +1.65%
$FTSE 7604 +0.65%
$CAC 6743 +1.8%
$AEX 718 +1.5%
$IBEX 8531 +1.6%
$MIB 24770 +1.35%
$SMI 11117 +1.25%
$MOEX 2168 -0.2%

$VSTOXX 19.66 ๐Ÿ”ป

$DAX range = 13740 - 14531 โ™‰๏ธ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ†—๏ธ futures trying to make up for yesterday with $SPX -0.4% to start the year

$ES 3843 +0.5%
$NQ 10943 +0.75%
$RTY 1765 +0.85%

$VIX 22.83

$SPX range = 3748 - 3901 โ™‰๏ธ
$IWM range = 170 - 176 โ™‰๏ธ
$VIX range = 20.04 - 24.11 ๐Ÿป
GOLD โ†—๏ธ with metals โ†”๏ธ

$GOLD 1864 +1.0%
$SILVER 24.457 +0.9%
$COPPER 3.742 -0.65%
$PLAT 1097 +0.35%
$PALL 1729 +2.15%
$ALI 2288 -1.0%
$ZINC 2963 -1.25%

$GVZ 17.26 ๐Ÿ”บ

$GOLD range = 1809 - 1871 โ™‰๏ธ
$SILVER range = 23.63 - 24.79 โ™‰๏ธ
$COPPER range = 3.68 - 3.89 โ™‰๏ธ
Hydrocarbons mostly โ†˜๏ธ

$WTIC 74.90 -2.65% ๐Ÿซ
$BRENT 89.98 -2.6%
$GASO 2.295 -2.8%
$NATGAS 4.046 +1.45%

$OVX 44.14 ๐Ÿ”บ

$WTIC range = 73.7 - 81.26 ๐Ÿป
$NATGAS range = 3.46 - 5.59 ๐Ÿป
$DBC range = 23.61 - 24.86 ๐Ÿป
Grains mostly โ†˜๏ธ

$WHEAT 860 -2.6% ๐Ÿซ
$CORN 668 -0.45%
$SOYB 1504 +0.35%
$SUGAR 19.68 -0.1%

$COFFEE โ˜•๏ธ 166.85 +0.35%

$DBA range = 19.77 - 20.33 โ†”๏ธ
The $USD giving back some โ†˜๏ธ

$EUR 1.0603 +9.55%
$GBP 1.2041 +0.65%
$AUD 0.687 +2.05% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿ‡
$USD 103.875 -0.42%
$USDJPY 130.55 -0.37%
$USDCHF 0.928 -0.88%
$USDCAD 1.355 -0.86%
$USDCNY 6.881 -0.5%

#FX vol 10.92 ๐Ÿ”บ

$USD range = 103.12 - 105.53 ๐Ÿป
$GBP range = 1.183 - 1.238 โ™‰๏ธ
#Cryptocurrencies with vol bands compressing and readying for a move

$BTC 16844 +1.0%
$ETH 1253 +3.15% ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ

#Bitcoin range = 16461 - 16959 ๐Ÿป
UST yields โ†˜๏ธ across the curve
10/2s to -66 bps ๐Ÿ”ป
10Y3M to -82 bps ๐Ÿ”ป

MOVE 129.97 ๐Ÿ”บ

$TNX range = 3.64 - 3.94 โ†”๏ธ to ๐Ÿป < 3.88
$TLT range = 98.41 - 104.65 ๐Ÿป

Global 10Ys
UST 3.683
GILT 3.549
BUND 2.268
ITA 4.317
JPN 0.479
AUS 3.855
CAN 3.151
The basic #recession play ๐Ÿ“• got some ๐Ÿ’“ yesterday but the $USD โ†˜๏ธ today, particularly vs. the $AUD with #FX vol ๐Ÿ”บ

Meanwhile the $DAX rips โ™‰๏ธ as #inflation โ†˜๏ธ

๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ market response to Redbook, PMIs, and FOMC minutes

๐Ÿ‘€ on the ๐Ÿซ and have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day!
Correction: $TNX putting in a big lower high

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 6
Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%

$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%

$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%

#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
#ADP private payrolls rose to +230,000 in December.

The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher

Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact. Image
Asia finished the week mostly โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7110 +0.65%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59900 -0.75%
Read 12 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 5
Hello Thursday!

Santa ๐ŸŽ… came and went, leaving $SPX holder +0.8% over the last 6 trading days of the year ๐ŸŽ

๐Ÿซ also showed up, robbing $DBC holders -4.14% and $DBA holders -2.28%. $CRB under pressure -4.89% in 2 trading days.

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed mostly โ†—๏ธ save ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ

$NIKK 25821 +0.4%
$SSEC 3155 +1.0%
$TWII 14301 +0.7%
$HSI 21052 +1.25%
$KOSPI 2265 +0.4%
$IDX 6654 -2.35% ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 7064 +0.05%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 60353 -0.5%
Europe โ†”๏ธ after $FEZ +4.25% to start the year

$DAX 14483 -0.05%
$FTSE 7612 +0.35%
$CAC 6765 +0.15%
$AEX 717 +0.05%
$IBEX 8589 +0.35%
$MIB 24879 +0.05%
$SMI 11091 -0.45%
$MOEX 2159 -0.45%

$VSTOXX 19.23 ๐Ÿ”ป

$DAX range = 13723 - 14511 โ™‰๏ธ
Read 13 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 3
Hello Tuesday and the first trading day of 2023!

Some unusual activity to start your new year with $USD, $GOLD, $VIX, and $ES all trading noticeably higher while $UST10Y drops like a stone.

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia mostly โ†—๏ธ to start the year

$NIKK holiday ๐Ÿฅณ
$SSEC 3117 +0.9%
$TWII 14224 +0.6%
$HSI 20145 +1.85%
$KOSPI 2219 -0.3% โฌ…๏ธ
$IDX 6889 +0.55%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ hard
$ASX 6946 -1.3%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 61294 +0.2%
Europe ๐Ÿš€

$DAX 14268 +1.4%
$FTSE 7605 +2.05%
$CAC 6674 +1.2%
$AEX 714 +1.75%
$IBEX 8445 +0.9%
$MIB 24534 +1.55%
$SMI 11001 +2.55%
$MOEX 2169 +0.7%

$VSTOXX 20.42

$DAX range = 13699 - 14153 โฌ…๏ธ โ™‰๏ธ ๐Ÿ”
Read 11 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 2
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way ๐Ÿงต

1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.

This coincides with ๐Ÿฅ๐ŸชŸ of weakness into Jan 10.

2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing โ€˜partners' (China and India).

Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.

wsj.com/articles/russiโ€ฆ
Read 7 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 2
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Global Macro Review ๐Ÿงต
1/14

Much will be written about 2022 full-year performance, so letโ€™s take a look at the last 3 months of the year to see if we can discern anything from a price momentum perspective.

(T) = Trend = 3-month price momentum
2/14

The $USD -7.86% peaked in September, providing much needed relief for risk assets around the world.

Chart: $USD -2.48% in December sits at critical trend line support with all major trend levels in bearish territory.

A close below 102 opens up 99. Mean revert or die.
3/14

After a modest pull-back in November, the $UST10Y resumed its upward trajectory in December, rising +20 bps to 3.88%.

Chart: $UST10Y - If you believe BOTH growth and inflation are slowing, then this thing needs to put in a big lower higher between here and 3.977%.
Read 14 tweets
Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 1
Self assessment ๐Ÿงต
1/15

New Yearโ€™s is the perfect time for some self reflection and assessment of my performance relative to my investing goal #5Real

#5Real = earning +5% AFTER inflation

So, how did I do?
2/15

I-Bonds +8.2%
Cash Accounts +3.1%
IRA Trend (long only) -2.97%
All Weather -5.76%
Trading account -6.39%
Vol HF allocation -6.54
IRA Mean Reversion -8.91%
401K -12.29%
3/15

No matter how you slice it, I came up well short of my goals

I lost money

I take absolutely zero solace in having outperformed the $SPX or $TLT

Yeh, it was a hard year. But I can do better.
Much better.

So, what did I learn this year to make me better at this game?
Read 15 tweets

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