Saudi Arabia May Be Netanyahu’s Political Lifeline nationalinterest.org/feature/saudi-… A Phenomenally Good piece in @TheNatlInterest by my pal Leon Hadar & the forces that @netanyahu is arrayed against & how his #Mideast policy may be saved by an unlikely ally: #MBS of #SaudiArabia
2/ Recognizing that President Joe Biden and his aides will not give him a green light to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, and may even try to revive the nuclear deal with Iran
3/ Netanyahu believes that the only way to change the status quo and force the Americans and the West to confront the Islamic Republic before it is too late is to form a diplomatic and military front with Saudi Arabia and its Arab-Sunni allies
4/ According to press reports, Netanyahu has met in the past with Saudi crown prince and prime minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and discussed the potential for cooperation between the Saudis and the Israeli in containing the shared Iranian threat.
5/ The hope in Jerusalem has been that in addition to facilitating trade and investment, the so-called Abraham Accords will become the first step in the process of creating a rapid response force modeled after NATO and consisting of Israel and the Gulf states
6/ Israelis and the Saudis to consider the new international reality, in which growing U.S. military commitments in Europe and Asia are reducing the U.S. ability to sustain its long-term presence in the Middle East.
7/ These developments are making it unlikely that Washington would be ready to go to war against Iran if it decides to build a nuclear bomb.
8/ MBS and Bibi, both close buddies of Trump, likely recognize that a Trump restoration in 2024 isn’t going to happen and that, at a minimum, they will have to find ways to work with the Democrats in Washington.
9/ From that perspective, Israel and Saudi Arabia share an interest in ensuring that the United States remains militarily engaged in the Middle East.
10/ But at the same time, they also have to prepare for the eventuality that the Americans will start reducing their military commitments in the region and create a strategic vacuum, requiring the Israelis and the Arab Gulf states to maintain a common military front to deter Iran
11/ it’s possible that in the face of the changing global and regional balance of power, MBS will be more inclined to take steps toward a diplomatic détente with Israel, which could help him restore his bruised reputation in Washington.
12/ THE KICKER: Moreover, the image of MBS and Netanyahu signing a peace accord at the White House would be regarded as a major diplomatic triumph for Biden and reduce the odds that the Americans will revive the nuclear deal with Iran.
13/ It’s doubtful, however, that MBS would agree to make a deal with Netanyahu without some concessions on the Palestinian issue, such as re-committing Israel to the two-state solution and leaving the status of the holy sites in Jerusalem open for negotiations.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Brandon Weichert

Brandon Weichert Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @WeTheBrandon

Jan 5
1/ This fight over @GOPLeader isn't really about McCarthy (though for some of the 20 it is). What this is about is the pending #debt ceiling fight likely in February. Here's what's going on (a thread)...
@GOPLeader 2/ 'Twas the night before Xmas (not exactly but close enough) & all thru the night, lobbyists were skulking the decorated hall of Congress, looking for handouts for their special interests. Everyone on Capitol Hill wanted to go home for the holidays so, w/o much debate,
@GOPLeader 3/ A group of elected officials pushed through a $1.7 Trillion spending bill w/o debate or even so much of a "Dear Colleague" letter. It was imperious. What upset some on the Hill the most was that the spending bill was chock full of goodies for Left-wing special interests.
Read 21 tweets
Jan 5
I think the @GOP needs to re-read my friend @leonhadar and his brilliant post-2022 Election commentary in the @IBDinvestors See here: businesstimes.com.sg/opinion-featur…
@GOP @leonhadar @IBDinvestors While the @HouseGOP is at it, check out these pieces by yours truly at @theamgreatness : amgreatness.com/2022/11/29/reb… "This failure comes down to one thing: misapprehending the permanently changed dynamics of the electorate.
Bluntly, the United States is not a center-Right country.
More for the @GOP b/c this is up next: amgreatness.com/2022/11/24/the… "An internecine spectacle would only weaken the GOP and probably help Joe Biden (and his handlers) sleepwalk their way into another term in the White House."
Read 4 tweets
Jan 4
Now Is the Time for Action lawliberty.org/now-is-the-tim… "Social media is addictive, polarizing, and potentially a threat to national security. It's time to regulate big tech." My latest @LawLiberty piece from the deeply edifying panel discussion I partook in last month.@HawleyMO
@LawLiberty @HawleyMO 2/ Big Tech is not just another industry struggling to overcome unfair government regulation. The products that are being produced by Big Tech and used by most people are unique, with real, negative, and lasting health impacts.
3/ Unlike previous technological inventions, such as radio, television, or the telephone, social media has changed the way in which Americans talk to one another. Communication has been, in Harris’ estimation, “colonized and privatized” by social media firms.
Read 32 tweets
Jan 4
The #AfD appears to be making a comeback, thanks largely to cost-of-living & energy crises caused by NATO's policies viz. #Russia in #Ukraine aljazeera.com/features/2022/…
2/ In October’s regional elections in the eastern state of Lower Saxony, the AfD gained nearly 12 percent of the votes, an increase compared with previous elections.
3/ Polls, including one by the strategic research company Pollytix, show overall support for the party has gone up from about 11 percent across Germany to nearly 15 percent nationally since July.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 3
This is why the US policy in Ukraine is a disaster. nytimes.com/2022/12/31/wor…
2/ In other words, with its almost 1.4 billion inhabitants, soon to overtake China as the world’s most populous country, India has a need for cheap Russian oil to sustain its 7 percent annual growth and lift millions out of poverty.
3/ That need is nonnegotiable. India gobbles up all the Russian oil it requires, even some extra for export. For Mr. Jaishankar, time is up on the mind-set that “Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s,” as he put it in June.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 3
An excellent and truthful piece...
thespectator.com/topic/bad-sama… “Like Carnegie’s philanthropic philosophy, Effective Altruism is ultimately rooted in saviorism. It’s a top-down view of social change, 1/
2/ appropriate for those who are accustomed to recreating the world in their own image from the perches of their high-status professions.
3/ It encourages high-net-worth individuals to use their wealth to impose their moral convictions upon the world, whether the world likes it or not...
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(