Rekt Capital Profile picture
Jan 8 21 tweets 23 min read
The Litecoin Halving is scheduled for August 2023

What historical price tendencies does $LTC showcase prior to its Halving and after its Halving?

A thread...

#BTC #LTC #Crypto #Litecoin
1.

$LTC tends to rally quite strongly prior to its Halving

Prior to Halving 1, #LTC bottomed 122 days and rallied +820%

Prior to Halving 2, LTC bottomed 243 days and rallied +550%

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
2.

On the other hand, how much does $LTC rally AFTER its Halving?

After Halving 1, #LTC rallied +14200%

After Halving 2, LTC rallied +1574%

Therefore, a key historical tendency emerges:

• LTC tends to rally more post-Halving compared to pre-Halving

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
3.

Let's focus on the $LTC Pre-Halving rally

While #LTC rallies strongly prior to the Halving...

LTC sharply and deeply retraces immediately after the Halving

LTC retraced -73% in the 578 days Post-Halving 1

LTC retraced -83% in the 458 days Post-Halving 2

#Crypto #Litecoin
4.

For that reason it's important to understand when a $LTC Pre-Halving rally tends to top

#LTC tends to top out just before the Halving

LTC topped 31 days Pre-Halving 1

LTC topped 61 days Pre-Halving 2

Could LTC top 92 days Pre-Halving 3 in May 2023?

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
5.

But what if the Pre-Halving top isn't occurring 30 days earlier prior to each $LTC Halving? (i.e. 30>60>90 days)

What if instead it is occurring in doubling fashion (30>60>120)?

If that were to be the case, a #LTC Pre-Halving top would occur in April 2023

#Crypto #Litecoin
6.

What's also interesting is how long these Pre-Halving $LTC rallies last in terms of time

From bottom to top, the #LTC Pre-Halving 1 rally lasted ~90 days

The LTC Pre-Halving 2 rally lasted twice that amount at ~180 days

Is there a pattern here?

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
7.

It looks like $LTC Pre-Halving rallies may be lengthening in time

If this upcoming #LTC Pre-Halving rally lasts twice as long as the previous PH rally, then this rally will last ~365 days

Which finds confluence with a May 2023 top

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
8.

There is confluence for an early/mid-Q2 $LTC Pre-Halving top

But how much could #LTC rally ahead of its August 2023 Halving?

Pre-Halving return may be declining

But is it declining by +269% each time?

If so LTC could rally up to +285% before August 2023

#Crypto #Litecoin
9

Such a rally would mean that $LTC would reach a major resistance (red)

Red is where the Pre-Halving 2019 rally topped

#LTC also briefly held support there after its 2021 Bull Market peak to form the Macro Downtrend (confluent resistance with red area)

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
10.

Once $LTC forms its Pre-Halving top...

#LTC tends to strongly retrace (min. -75%)

And when that correction ends, LTC tends to form a new Accumulation Range

Post-Halving 1, #Litecoin formed an Ascending Triangle

Post-Halving 2, LTC formed a normal sideways range

#Crypto
11.

Interestingly, these Post-Halving $LTC ranges develop at a Higher Low (orange) compared to where #LTC bottomed prior to the Halving.

So what implications could that have for LTC’s Post-Halving retracement?

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
12.

If $LTC were to perform its Pre-Halving top at the red resistance & form a Higher Low relative to the Pre-Halving low…

Then the #LTC Post-Halving retracement would be ~-60%

But history suggests this retrace should be deeper than that (min. -73%)

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
13.

How can we reconcile this?

If a -73% to -78% Post-Halving retrace were to occur, then $LTC would still hold a Higher Low (orange)

A -73% #LTC retrace would be above 2022 Pre-Halving low

A -78% retrace would go below 2022 low but still respect Higher Low

#Crypto #Litecoin
14.

Such a $LTC Post-Halving retrace would create a new Post-Halving Accumulation Range (black)

Historically, such #LTC Ranges have been ~72%-77% wide

Key to watch for deep Post-Halving retrace followed by long consolidation in an approx 70%-wide Range

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
15.

When would $LTC breakout into a Post-Halving rally?

Historically, #LTC has consolidated in a Post-Halving Range for 458-578 days before breakout

If consolidation time is constantly declining by ~120 days then it could take a year for LTC to breakout

#Crypto #Litecoin
16.

This would coincide with a July 2024 $LTC breakout

This would make sense as this #LTC breakout would occur after the 2024 #Bitcoin Halving

It would also tie in with #BTC's general trend reversal which occurs in a typical Candle 4 in the Four Year Cycle

#Crypto #Litecoin
17.

Overall, the $LTC analysis in this thread suggests that #LTC is forming a Macro Wedge

Lower High resistance denotes Macro Downtrend

Higher Low denotes support on the Post-Halving retrace

Price compression will occur

Compression precedes volatility

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
18.

Historically $LTC rallies more Post-Halving vs Pre-Halving

PostHalving 1 #LTC rallied +15330% in 853 days

PostHalving 2 rallied +1562% in 639 days

Each PH rally made new All Time Highs

History suggests LTC may make new ATHs 400+ days Post-Halving 2023

#Crypto #Litecoin
19.

Overall, here is a list of all key $LTC Halving Principles:

#LTC rallies Pre-Halving

• Local top months Pre-Halving

• Strong retrace after local top

• Post-Halving consolidation in Accumulation Range

• Strong Post-Halving rally to new ATHs

#BTC #Crypto #Litecoin
20.

I regularly share this type of level-headed, unbiased analysis in the Rekt Capital Newsletter

If you liked this thread - you'll love the newsletter

Feel free to sign up for regular cutting-edge insights on #BTC and Altcoins:

rektcapital.substack.com

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

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More from @rektcapital

Dec 29, 2022
The #BTC Bear Market is coming to an end, according to Four Year Cycle principles

But a new Bottoming Out Candle 3 is set to form next

So what should we pay attention to in 2023?

A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
1.

Historically, #BTC's price action has formed Four Year Cycles

Each candle represents a year

Candle 1 sees $BTC reach its Bull Market Peak

Candle 2 is where #Bitcoin is in a Bear Market

Candle 3 is where BTC bottoms out

Candle 4 is where BTC recovers & begins a new trend
2.

By standards of history, the bottom of Candle 2 begins the Four Year Cycle Accumulation Range (green)

Candle 2 bottom is very close to $13935 (black)

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Could be tested as support in 2023

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For the 1st time ever...

#BTC RSI brokedown from an area that has historically preceded outsized Returns On Investment for long-term investors

Past reversals from around this area include Jan 2015, Dec 2018 & March 2020

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A thread

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin Image
1.

Overall, the #BTC Monthly RSI is forming a red Wedge

$BTC Bull Market Tops occur at the RSI Wedge Top

And Bear Market Bottoms occur at the RSI Wedge Bottom

BTC has lost this market structure, breaking down from the Bear Market Bottom area (green)

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2.

Bullish Divergence tend to form at #BTC Bear Market Bottom RSI levels (green trendline)

Currently, $BTC is searching for its first bottom which would build the macro Bullish Divergence

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Read 12 tweets
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But there are projects that are pushing us in the right direction

One of which is @GetBlockWallet, a self-custodial wallet designed to keep you safe on the blockchain

A thread...
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I've been testing BlockWallet for the past weeks & have enjoyed how simple & intuitive it is

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#BTC tends to confirm uptrends when it breaks above the blue 50-week EMA

$BTC tends to confirm maximum financial opportunity when it reaches & breaks down from the black 200-week EMA

Is the BTC bottom in already or is there more downside to come?

A thread...

#Crypto #Bitcoin
1.

What's interesting about these two #BTC Weekly EMAs is the space between them

And how this space can help investors identify whether a $BTC bottom is close

In 2015, the first bottom was 150% away from the blue 50 WEMA

The final bottom was ~50% away from the blue 50 WEMA
2.

In 2018, the first #BTC bottom was ~100% away from the blue 50-week EMA

The second $BTC bottom was 70% away from the blue 50-week EMA

#Crypto #Bitcoin
Read 9 tweets
Jun 2, 2022
#BTC RSI is now entering a period that has historically preceded outsized Returns On Investment for long-term investors

Previous reversals from this area include January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020

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A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
1.

Overall, the #BTC Monthly RSI is forming a red Wedging Structure

$BTC Bull Market Tops occur at the RSI Wedge Top

And Bear Market Bottoms occur at the RSI Wedge Bottom

BTC is slowly approaching the Bear Market Bottom area (green)

#Crypto #Bitcoin
2.

Most recently, the #BTC Monthly RSI lost the blue March 2020 low as support

Which means that this current RSI value is officially the third lowest RSI period ever reached by $BTC

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#Crypto #Bitcoin
Read 10 tweets
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Is #BTC performing Macro Double Bottoms at the 200-week moving average?

A thread...

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin Image
1.

Let's first analyse these #BTC Macro Double Bottom periods

In 2015, $BTC formed an Accumulation Range at the 200-week MA

The accumulation range was ~60% wide and was home to price for some 287 days

The first Macro Double Bottom occurred during this period

#Crypto #Bitcoin Image
2.

In 2018 #BTC formed another Accumulation Range at the 200MA

However this $BTC range was 30% wide & lasted for 112 days

The 2018 Range was half as volatile & lasted half the time compared to the 2015 Range

The second Macro Bottom occurred over a year later

#Crypto #Bitcoin Image
Read 22 tweets

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