Thread by @R__Politik

Concerning the reshuffle in the military command: Since everyone is asking for comments, I will share a few preliminary thoughts. A thread 🧵

What is interesting at the moment is that everyone seems to be in shock: #Prigozhin's people, military correspondents, and the military. A great many knowledgeable people seem to not get the gist of this decision either, which suggests that it is a situational and sudden move.

This is not a promotion for #Gerasimov, even if he retained his post as head of the General Staff. Personnel decisions recently have been made to the contrary: not in order to achieve something, but rather to avoid something.

Gerasimov was handed command of the military operation because of Surovikin's serious setbacks.

Since we are not able to speak of any recent military successes (to put it mildly), Putin has had to deal in recent weeks, especially after Makiivka, with the showdown and mudslinging in long, sharp, emotional debates about the eternal Russian questions:

"who is to blame" and "what to do". Gerasimov (we have seen from his public appearance alongside #Putin that he has not lost credibility to the point of being ousted altogether) has obviously had an opportunity to have his say (and there is clearly a lot to be said).

The army's position is now truly clear: it is being torn apart publicly under the silent nod of the authorities and it's outrageous.

This is not a military coup, of course, but Gerasimov could have asked (though not demanded) carte blanche in the heat of verbal battles against the background of some very tense discussions. t.me/rusbrief/83296

For Putin this is manoeuvring, a tug-of-war between Surovikin (and his sympathizers like Prigozhin) and Gerasimov (who was suspended for months). Putin, as an unprofessional military man and one who does not understand how to salvage the whole affair, is wavering between them.

In a couple of months, Gerasimov may be out of the picture.

📌 No one is going to hand Gerasimov over "to the firing squad". t.me/rybar/42619

I don't see what Putin's interest is here. But it's very Putin-like to respond by appointing someone who was particularly outraged and can pretend to lecture about how things should have been done.

📌 For Surovikin, it is of course an unpleasant decision, but remediable. He has no choice but to give way to Gerasimov for now. It is not a fact that the new tactics will be more effective, and Surovikin may still be in demand later.

The conclusion is that Putin is looking for effective tactics in the conditions of a "creeping" loss. He is trying to reshuffle the pieces and is therefore giving chances to those who he finds persuasive. Today, Gerasimov turned out to be persuasive.

Tomorrow it could be anybody else. How many times has Putin publicly and derogatorily referred to the most influential and high-ranking figures (the FSB, Peskov, Naryshkin)? All are "idiots", but there are no others – this is Putin's attitude towards his subordinates.

That is the logic behind this decision. But in reality, the problem is not with the people, but with the tasks at hand.