Thread by @jbeano

There’s #conflict in change. And right now, we’re going through many changes. Shifts to #renewables, digitization, distributed systems, transparency etc.

When trying to better understand how these transitions and conflicts work, I find the 3 Horizons Model to be helpful. 🧵👇

The 1st horizon signifies business as usual, which is losing its fit for purpose.

Some of this may continue into the future, but we know it is in decline for sure.

Horizon 3 is the viable #future we can envision.

It holds our hopes and dreams of what the future could be, and one that is possible with #innovation and progress.

The 2nd horizon is where we find a proliferation of new solutions and innovations.

It's also where conflicts arise from competing solutions and systems battle out their fit for the future. This transition zone is where we find ourselves in many "disrupted" industries.

Let's use the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy/fuels.

As #sustainable options have become more competitive with fossil fuels, oil companies funded disinformation and marketing campaigns against them. Competing solutions are also battling for success.

Eventually #renewables and #sustainable options will succeed, and seem inevitable.

But the transition will hold conflict not only for oil, but for materials & manufacturing, finance & investment, analog vs digital (further along today), prosumerism, nation vs city states, etc.

We can use this model as a #strategy exercise with scenario planning, foresight, market forecasting, systems thinking, and designing a better #future.

Thanks to Anthony Hodgkins and Andrew Curry for pioneering this framework.
h3uni.org

ceoworld.biz/2022/12/19/a-n…

New frameworks and approaches can help us build a more #sustainable and equitable world.

Want to learn more and understand the biggest opportunity of our generation? Check out my new book, What Could Go Right, now on Amazon:
amazon.com/What-Could-Rig…