Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Jan 12 4 tweets 2 min read
#AURAENERGY $AEE approaching it's 9 month high, only 15% off it's 36 month high with a massive upgrade in NPV incoming....

Sub $20lb AISC on 3mlbs of capacity with project implementation 18 months = 200% catch up relative to peer group valuations over the next 15 months.
This #uranium case study for us started back in 2018, cap low in 2019 was around $6m....

On entry we valued the opportunity at around 15x avg entry price.

This has been upgraded as further research has lead us to much higher resource levels at Tiris on lower AISC assumptions...
....also we believe the Swedish assets will have significantly higher valuation impact than applied to the original valuations.

For Tiris the nearology resource expansion will likely be material Vs the current 56mlb (5x is possible), that can push the full NPV up to A$2bn.
For the Swedish assets, removal of the #uranium mining ban in 2023 adds A$5bn plus to the battery metals project NPV.

So at $160m cap the full resource NPVs combined will stand at $3-8bn.

Very material upside over the next 5-7 years.

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More from @BULLReturns

Jan 13
Thought of the day: When in the eye of the bear market storm, ask yourself, 4-7 yrs out, is the asset price then 8x + of today's value? Will cashflows be materially higher? Will price drivers be materially higher? Will demand be materially higher? Will negativity have flipped?
Scaling in is the best option to secure one's future returns near a cycle bottom, our 8x threshold often can go to 20x, the avg deployed return being around 14x.
The difference between -96% and -97.5% scaled in entry points washes out when up 15-20x.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10
Understanding balance sheet liquidity runways from cashflow cycle lows is key to selecting the multi baggers...

$BTU 80c to >$40 post buy backs & dividends kicking in >30x

$RIG 60c to >$15 >20x due to massive operating cashflow build up through 2026, debt duration push out etc
$BTU 2020 operating CF compared to 2023 > 15x

$RIG 2021 operating CF compared to 2026 > 6x
We purchased both at near cycle lows in 2H 2020.

We are replicating those themes in 2023 in:

#bitcoin miners

#preciousmetal stocks

Selected #cyclical low themes
Read 4 tweets
Dec 10, 2022
As several #uranium stock fall through 24 month lows, many on twitter will have turned negative on the whole thesis. Whereas a few of these will provide us line of sight for 8x returns, we would be remiss not to deploy. These will triple over 18 months & those who sold at lows...
....will reenter and believe in life changing returns again with <3x upside.

The fool and their money are easily separated in high volatility sectors where longer term (> 24 months) sitting is required.

#uranium
The definition of a #uranium fool:

- engages in fomo near up leg highs

- talks about holding for dividends in a sector where capital losses > 90%

- talks about life changing returns while selling near lows

- has no idea on project matrix with < $25 AISC at the lowest caps
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
$AEE AGM about to start, join and become enlightened. Tiris #uranium project cashflowing 2025, scaling production through 2027.
56mlb resource increase to 120mlbs at Tiris > $1.6bn NPV or $1.80 per share. WOW #Uranium $AEE #auraenergy
1600 holes drilled for expansionary resource and reserves = huge above expectation data incoming #uranium

$AEE
Read 5 tweets
Nov 24, 2022
$AEE using only 20% of the old resource in the NPV (without #vanadium credits) = 600% increase in the NPV = $800m at $75 pricing Vs current cap $140m (excluding Swedish battery metals project) #uranium
$AEE ability to expand the resource at 10c per pound #uranium
$AEE 45% fixed operating costs, spread over 3-5mlbs Vs 1mlb boosts the scaling productivity materially pushing AISC lower #uranium
Read 5 tweets
Nov 22, 2022
Thought of the day: Locating a 50 bagger for 2023 entry through 2026 exit, likely characteristics, down 95%+ from 2021 peak, volume growth +2-3x, selling price price +1-2x through 2026. Examples: commodity micro cap, a tech turnaround, a crypto token, a REIT or durable goods cap.
#bitcoin miners bottom incoming:

#Bitcoin 12.5k = -30% from here = -93-98.5% = +7-15x

#Bitcoin 10k = -50% from here = -95-99% from peak = +10-20x

#Bitcoin 5k = -75% from here = -97-99.9% from peak = +15-30x

#Survivability test in play, liquidity runway requirements
#REITs & Durable goods (#USHomebuilders) bottoming likely 2H 2023, where 12 month balance sheet liquidity is under pressure due to frozen credit markets (inability to refinance = elevated default risk)

Very Tight credit conditions = -70% move from here

Frozen Credit = -90% move
Read 5 tweets

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