Thought of the day: When in the eye of the bear market storm, ask yourself, 4-7 yrs out, is the asset price then 8x + of today's value? Will cashflows be materially higher? Will price drivers be materially higher? Will demand be materially higher? Will negativity have flipped?
Scaling in is the best option to secure one's future returns near a cycle bottom, our 8x threshold often can go to 20x, the avg deployed return being around 14x.
The difference between -96% and -97.5% scaled in entry points washes out when up 15-20x.
As several #uranium stock fall through 24 month lows, many on twitter will have turned negative on the whole thesis. Whereas a few of these will provide us line of sight for 8x returns, we would be remiss not to deploy. These will triple over 18 months & those who sold at lows...
....will reenter and believe in life changing returns again with <3x upside.
The fool and their money are easily separated in high volatility sectors where longer term (> 24 months) sitting is required.
$AEE using only 20% of the old resource in the NPV (without #vanadium credits) = 600% increase in the NPV = $800m at $75 pricing Vs current cap $140m (excluding Swedish battery metals project) #uranium
Thought of the day: Locating a 50 bagger for 2023 entry through 2026 exit, likely characteristics, down 95%+ from 2021 peak, volume growth +2-3x, selling price price +1-2x through 2026. Examples: commodity micro cap, a tech turnaround, a crypto token, a REIT or durable goods cap.
#Bitcoin 12.5k = -30% from here = -93-98.5% = +7-15x
#Bitcoin 10k = -50% from here = -95-99% from peak = +10-20x
#Bitcoin 5k = -75% from here = -97-99.9% from peak = +15-30x
#Survivability test in play, liquidity runway requirements
#REITs & Durable goods (#USHomebuilders) bottoming likely 2H 2023, where 12 month balance sheet liquidity is under pressure due to frozen credit markets (inability to refinance = elevated default risk)
Very Tight credit conditions = -70% move from here