Thread by @ZachariasFoegen

🧵Thread
Does the #Booster cause a significant excess mortality in Germans aged 60+ during Dec. 2021?
My calculations lead to a mortality of at least 1 in 3750, maybe even 1 in 2000. Let's discuss
@DrAseemMalhotra @goddeketal and all the other scientists that @elonmusk freed!

All of the following diagrams have the same structure. Weekly deaths are blue (COVID, from RKI) and red (TOTAL from DESTATIS minus COVID) columns. Weekly Average is green, prognosis for weekly average (from @DESTATIS "14. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung") in yellow.

To find outliers, I calculated the standard deviation of weekly deaths among Total and Non-COVID and added the standard deviations to the weekly average of Total (blue line) and Non-Covid (purple line).

For age 90+, there is no excess mortality in total deaths (-2,36% compared to prognosis, although 6,3% of all deaths are COVID). However, for non- and COVID-Deaths, there is significant increase in weeks 48 and 49.

For age 80-89, average deaths are +2,42% above prognosis, although COVID deaths are 7,4% of all deaths.
There is again a significant increase in non-COVID deaths in weeks 48 and 49, coincidentally?

For age 70-79, average deaths are -6,61% below prognosis despite 7,4% COVID deaths.
There is a significant increase in non-COVID-Deaths in weeks 47 to 49.

For age 60-69, average is +21,73% above prognosis, however only 6,2% of deaths are from COVID.
Again, there is a significant increase in non-COVID deaths in weeks 48 and 49.

Diagramms for other age groups were not significant but can be found on my homepage
zachariasfoegen.wordpress.com/2022/01/26/fin…

So how does this go along with vaccinations? All vaccinations in blue, booster in red (image 1).
While the booster peak for all ages was only after these weeks, if I look closer at vaccinations for age 60+ (image 2), vaccination peak was clearly in week 49. Coincidence?

With a hypothetical rate of 1/3750 boosters leading to a casualty, the excess deaths can be fully explained (image 1)
However, a rate of 1:2000 looks much more realistic (image 2).

What do you think is the cause for the increase in deaths in weeks 48 and 49?
Feel free to share and discuss!

Data Sources:
destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gese…
(taken from 25.01.2022)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
(taken from 20.01.2022)
destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pres…

Since the 3rd source did use age groups 60-74 and 75+, data was split up as follows using data from previous years:
60-74: 60% 60-69; 40% 70-79.
75+: 20% 70-79; 52% 80-89; 28% 90+

I correct: I added the DOUBLED standard deviations to the weekly average.

@threadreaderapp unroll please