ISW Profile picture
Jan 16 10 tweets 5 min read
🧵of key inflections/updates in ongoing military operations on January 15.

Full report: isw.pub/UkrWar011523
Interactive map: arcg.is/09O0OS
2/ Ukrainian officials specified that a Russian Kh-22 missile struck a residential building in #Dnipro City on January 14, killing at least 25–30 civilians.
3/ Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin awarded medals to Wagner forces for the capture of #Soledar, likely in an ongoing effort to frame its capture as a Wagner accomplishment rather than a joint effort with the Russian Armed Forces, as the Russian MoD previously claimed.
4/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Makiivka and Bilohorivka, #Luhansk Oblast.
5/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are transferring Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) off-road vehicles from Russia to Luhansk Oblast, possibly for use in combat.
6/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces finished clearing #Soledar and attacked Ukrainian positions to the north, west, and southwest of the settlement. A Ukrainian source reported that Russian forces captured a mine west of Soledar near Dvorichchia on January 15.
7/ Russian forces continued to attack #Bakhmut and areas to the north, east, south, and southwest of the city. Russian forces made marginal territorial gains southwest of Bakhmut near #Andriivka.
8/ Ukrainian #Kherson Oblast Military Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that Russian forces increased their presence in occupied Kherson Oblast and that some Wagner Group forces arrived in Kherson Oblast.
9/ Russian occupation head of Kherson Oblast Vladimir Saldo claimed that the restoration of the Henichesk-Arabat Spit bridge improved Russian logistics into occupied Kherson Oblast.
10/ A Russian servicemember reportedly detonated a grenade in a building where Russian soldiers were quartered in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, possibly in a fratricidal act of resistance against mobilization. Russian sources said the attack killed 3 & injured 10 mobilized personnel.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Jan 18
The Russian information space has yet to determine how to frame tactical advances in #Soledar as operationally significant as of January 17. isw.pub/UkrWar011723
2/ Russian sources previously suggested that the capture of Soledar presaged an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut or even a Ukrainian retreat as far back as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
3/ Some Russian sources claimed on January 17 that the capture of Soledar allows Russian forces to cut Ukrainian supply routes between Siversk and Bakhmut (T0513 highway), creating a Russian bridgehead for offensives on Siversk.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 18
Eastern #Ukraine Update: #Donetsk

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Soledar on January 17. Geolocated footage published on January 16 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal advances north of Bilohorivka (11km NE of Soledar). isw.pub/UkrWar011723 Image
2/ Geolocated footage published on January 17 shows Wagner Group elements south of Rozdolivka (7km north of Soledar) and north of #Soledar. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are continuing offensives towards Rozdolivka and Vesele (8km northeast of #Soledar).
3/ One Russian milblogger reiterated claims that Wagner elements completely captured Sil, but ISW still cannot verify this claim. Ukr. forces may still maintain positions in western Sil (which is in #Soledar) since Ukr. officials continue to claim that its forces are in Soledar.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 18
#Putin's directive to conduct large-scale military reforms aimed at expanding #Russia’s conventional armed forces is likely to prepare for a protracted war in #Ukraine and to set conditions to build a significantly stronger Russian military quickly. isw.pub/UkrWar011723
2/ These reforms demonstrate #Russia’s intent to reform the Russian military to conduct large-scale conventional warfighting in general and not just for the current war against #Ukraine, as @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed.
3/ #Russia’s ability to generate large-scale rapid change in its military capacity depends on President Vladimir #Putin’s willingness to redirect large portions of the federal budget to a military buildup and put Russia on something like a war footing for several years.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Russo-Ukrainian War is in a “decisive phase” on January 15 and that NATO countries recognize the current situation and must “provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win.” isw.pub/UkrWar011623
2/ Stoltenberg’s statement supports ISW’s 15 JAN assessment that the Kremlin likely intends to take decisive strategic action in 2023. It does not imply that the war is in its final phase or that Russian forces are planning to employ all available resources in impending actions.
3/ Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications representative Andriy Yusov remarked on January 15 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognized that Russian forces cannot take Ukraine quickly and is considering waging a drawn-out war of attrition.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Low discipline among Russian forces continues to directly endanger Russian soldiers and limit force effectiveness. isw.pub/UkrWar011623 Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 16 that Russian authorities will launch new force generation efforts to replenish Wagner Group and BARS (Russian Combat Reserve of the Country) detachments which are suffering significant losses on the frontlines.
3/ Increasing official concern over continued refusals to fight by Russian soldiers has likely motivated Russian authorities to publicize their punishment capabilities.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 17
The Kremlin continues to publicly challenge Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s claims that Wagner Group forces were solely responsible for capturing Soledar, Donetsk Oblast, on January 12.

Read the latest from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats:
isw.pub/UkrWar011623 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Putin attributed the success on the frontlines to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and General Staff plans when responding to a journalist’s question on January 15 regarding Russian advances in Soledar.
3/ Putin’s statement was aired live on state-controlled TV and was likely a deliberate effort to undermine Prigozhin’s influence within the Russian information space, given that Putin has previously refrained from commenting on tactical advances in Ukraine.
Read 10 tweets

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