1) Quick comment on #silver.
Silver -5.7% from recent peak. So far normal noise in both bull and bear mkts.
Also 17% below 14D 2 St Dev band. Last time? 6/13/22.
And 6/16/21 when 2 St Dev band was this narrow.
Both were during bear markets.
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
Silver -5.7% from recent peak. So far normal noise in both bull and bear mkts.
Also 17% below 14D 2 St Dev band. Last time? 6/13/22.
And 6/16/21 when 2 St Dev band was this narrow.
Both were during bear markets.
$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) So will soon test whether this is that shorter and shallower bull mkt correction positioning and technical indicators now suggest.
Note big differences already today. Miners outperforming vs underperforming (e.g. 6/13/22 6/21/21).
#Gold down small vs -$50 the prior days etc.
Note big differences already today. Miners outperforming vs underperforming (e.g. 6/13/22 6/21/21).
#Gold down small vs -$50 the prior days etc.
3) This post already somewhat outdated btw. Silver now down 4.5% from recent high. Gold is barely down.
Btw silver vol is 30%. So weekly vol is 4.2%. And this pullback nothing compared to what often happens even in secular bull markets.
Real question? Is this is a new bull mkt?
Btw silver vol is 30%. So weekly vol is 4.2%. And this pullback nothing compared to what often happens even in secular bull markets.
Real question? Is this is a new bull mkt?
4) Typo should be 6/16/21 again in 2).
5) Btw stay away from those yelling manipulation every downtick.
Also silver 30 vol (yearly) = 8.7% monthly vol = 1.9% daily vol.
I.e. > 1.9% daily moves happen regularly. And we haven't even had a 1/4 of 1 St Dev monthly move down yet.
Mostly noise so day to day resemble ...
Also silver 30 vol (yearly) = 8.7% monthly vol = 1.9% daily vol.
I.e. > 1.9% daily moves happen regularly. And we haven't even had a 1/4 of 1 St Dev monthly move down yet.
Mostly noise so day to day resemble ...
6) normal distributions very closely.
E.g. there were almost as many up days as down days as S&P fell 56% during GFC.
Low day to day correlations ~ normal distribution.
Even large signals (GFC) come from what quants at Renaissance call "ghost signals."
E.g. there were almost as many up days as down days as S&P fell 56% during GFC.
Low day to day correlations ~ normal distribution.
Even large signals (GFC) come from what quants at Renaissance call "ghost signals."
https://twitter.com/ResearchQf/status/1303775452251729922
7) Or fat tails.
Even when system highly unstable (GFC), and initial shock led to instability, resulting in more instability, leading to a crisis, then a bigger crisis etc, markets by nature make it almost impossible to predict timing closely.
Otherwise everyone would be rich.
Even when system highly unstable (GFC), and initial shock led to instability, resulting in more instability, leading to a crisis, then a bigger crisis etc, markets by nature make it almost impossible to predict timing closely.
Otherwise everyone would be rich.
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