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Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Jan 25, 2023 • 12 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X

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@Route2FI

1/ I saw a post from @Route2FI on @CantoPublic which has been pumping hard. #CANTO #NOTE

How come this #Cosmos chain is at $120 mil TVL & #Kuji is at only $7 mil?

@TeamKujira has been building hard, but Canto is better?

I found the answer. See next, a thread. 🧵

2/ #CANTO (native token) & #NOTE (its stable) represent 72% of the chain's volume & about $46 mil in value.

But what worries me more is that you can issue Notes with Canto!

Pump Canto price, borrow more Notes. Fly wheel. 🚀

Sounds familiar? #Luna & #UST anyone? 🙃

Next 👇

3/ If you check the price of NOTE it's over peg by 3 cents on the dollar, see pic

Demand is high - of course! You can borrow more Notes so long Canto price is pumping.

Guess what happens when Canto price crashes? Liquidations.

Not pretty.

More on that overstated TVL next. 👇

4/ $42 mil in #USDC and #USDT are on Canto chain.

Presumably that is used to borrow Notes. Hence, that $42 mil is stuck as collateral for Notes.

It's a great way to double count $42 mil in TVL since Notes in circulations are just USDC & USDT with another label.

Risks next 👇

5/ Imagine you deposit 100 USDC on Canto and borrow 97 NOTES (remember the peg is 1 USDC for 0.97 Note).

Everything goes well for a while.

✅ Canto price explodes = Notes in circulation explode

Then the crash happens (see #Luna pic).

What happens next? 👇

6/ All those Notes in circulation backed by Canto are worthless.

So what happens?

Note peg falls to the fair value backed by... USDC & USDT. The peg has reversed.

100 Notes borrowed can only redeem you maybe $80 or less in USDC.

With that, the Canto TVL also crashes.

Next 👇

7/ I don't have all the data as the information on the main site of Canto is particularly opaque.

The best part? There are no fees to transact on Canto.

Yes - really. Why?

Maybe to incentivize liquidity/volume? See #2.

In other words, pump Note market cap.

Juicy next 👇

8/ Good thing that there are an infinite number of Notes ready to be borrowed.

No joke, I don't even know how to call a number with so many zeroes (pictured).

While I find Canto's vision intriguing (see next), my findings show you may be taking more risk than necessary here.

9/ We can all agree with the ethos of a "Free Public Infrastructure" for #DeFi (pic).

But we can also all agree that there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Don't be naïve. If the lunch is free, then you are the lunch, or rather, your USDC & USDT on Canto. 😱

Moreover... 👇

If the Note peg falls under 1, the solution to solve that is to print more Notes = inflation! See pic 🤣

The questions then is, who wants to buy Notes when the peg is crashing?

It's all about trust in this market and that can vanish in seconds. See #Luna.

Lastly. 👇

@DU09BTC

11/ If you liked this thread, #retweet the first post to get more of this content in the future!

Stay in touch + follow @DU09BTC:

✅ Discord
✅ YouTube
✅ TradingView
✅ Newsletter
✅ Patrons & Donations

My best content is one click away. 👇

linktr.ee/duonine

P.S. #Note is NOT a stable coin. There is no obligation for its peg to be at $1. 🤣

Picture is straight from the devs. 👇

At least they are transparent to inform you to expect to lose your money.

Good luck out there.

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More from @DU09BTC

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Nov 16

How to find the top in this cycle. A thread.

When you see these 10 signals flashing, it's time to bail. Signal 9 will tell you when to sell altcoins.

Bookmark this thread! Let's go. 1/12 🧵

2/ Signal 1: Terminal Price

Bitcoin price hits the red line? Sell hard.

Current terminal price is 170k.

This accounts for the movement of Bitcoin on-chain. @_Checkmatey_ invented this indicator.

3/ Signal 2: Stock-to-Flow Model

Start selling whenever the price moves above the stock/flow line.

That's above 150k today. Will be 200k later.

Either way, early 2025 looks like a prime period to sell.

Read 12 tweets

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Oct 27

Bitcoin is in trouble.

If nothing changes soon, things won’t be pretty.

I’m not talking about the halving schedule or block rewards, it’s much more serious than that.

A thread 1/17 🧵

2/ As Bitcoin goes mainstream, fees to transact on its network will replace block rewards.

This will be gradual and take place over decades. However, a new problem is starting to emerge.

It was harder to predict this, but now it’s here.

3/ The first incentive is to buy and hold Bitcoin. Nothing new so far.

However, we now have a bigger incentive. It has to do with you NOT using the real Bitcoin.

Intrigued?

Let’s look at the facts next and follow @DU09BTC before we continue.

Read 17 tweets

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Oct 11

If you hold Ethereum, you are in trouble.

Uniswap, an ETH dApp generating $500 mil / year in fees, just created its own L2. Now, those fees are reduced by 100x and go into Uniswap pocket.

Multiply this by 100x with other dApps and ETH's price will go to zero. A thread 1/12 🧵

2/ The reason Ethereum has value is because of its fees that generate demand for its native token.

At the time of this post, it costs over $10 for a simple token swap.

ETH is on borrowed time as users are rightfully ditching this expensive chain. Who's to blame?

3/ Vitalik and his team.

They decided to scale Ethereum via L2s, but in the process they are losing their users. A bit ironic considering L2s were meant to fix ETH's scaling problem.

As L2s proliferate and users move out, Ethereum faces an even bigger problem.

Read 12 tweets

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Oct 5

It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this - PART 3!

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 3. A thread. (1/11) 🧵

2/ Since I started in 2014, I made many mistakes, but nothing compares to this one.

Buying altcoins.

But what did I know back then? Nothing. If you're new to crypto, learn from this thread.

What's my lost profit over the years thanks to alts?

3/ Over $1 million had I put that money in BTC and held. There is a reason I say this.

Altcoins are a losers game over time.

Bitcoin is a winners game over time.

Which game do you want to play? My next point will help sway you in the right direction.

Read 11 tweets

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Oct 1

Last night I was the victim of one of the most complex social engineering scams I've ever seen impersonating @paraficapital staff.

If you're in crypto, you are a target.

This thread will show you how they did it and if they succeeded. Time to find out - 1/15 🧵

2/ If you have any following they will target you. Their account will look spotless, clean text + X verified.

Ryan is a Principal of a billion dollar crypto company and sends you a DM on X, then he moves you to TG.

Your first priority is to confirm credentials. How?

3/ Ask a DM from their company X account or to send you an email using their official domain name.

Ryan was frustrated with my request, so he told me I need to do proper DD and see he's followed by almost all his Parafi team.

Instant red flag, but I decided to play ball.

Read 15 tweets

Duo Nine ⚡ YCC

@DU09BTC

Sep 29

It took me 10 years in crypto to learn this - PART 2!

I'm offering you a shortcut so you don't have to wait that long.

The cycles repeat, but they are not the same.

Here's Part 2. A thread. (1/12) 🧵

2/ Altcoins are highly extractive.

VCs print tokens from thin air with a cost basis of ZERO.

When there is any demand for their token, they sell and absorb that demand. This is how they take your money, legally.

This is also why your blue chip alt didn't make a new ATH.

3/ VCs don't care about their token price!

As long as there is any retail demand, they can sell into it at a profit. That includes tokens down by 90% to 99%.

Remember, their cost base is ZERO! While retail waits for new highs or buys "discounts", VCs laugh at you. See XRP.

Read 12 tweets

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